/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12681335
when the human population lowers in numbers

>>12681335
The key indicators precluding a crash are 0% down mortgages followed by 0% down with cash incentive mortgages. The 0% down should come 2-3yrs before the crash and the cash incentive loans will be 6mos-1yr before it's toast.

>>12681335
never you dumb faggot everyone and their mom has money saved up waiting for it to crash. the stock market will also never crash again. this is it nigger. buy now or become a feudal serf by EOY

>>12681397

we already have 0% down mortgages. my friend bought a house last year 0 down

>>12681680
where do you live

>>12681689

This was in San Antonio, Tx. Which has the highest amount of people moving into the city per day in the country. I just left but 3 friends of mine and 2 of their parents moved there within 3 years of each other

>>12681680
Then you now know it's 1-2 years out. The other sign that's it's very close is lots of price reduction for sale signs. That signals the market has topped and the decline is starting.

>>12681699

currently house shopping in North Carolina. There's been a drop in prices on many decent houses and some have been on the market for months.

too bad I wish i wasnt shopping for another year or two but we'll see.

>>12681397
That's not how these things work. Every bubble cycle is different. You can't expect the same conditions that preceded the last pop to precede this one.

>>12681335
still a ways to go anon

>>12681777
i figure this coincides with the boomer death bull run kicking off

>>12681335
The market is already crashing, but we have two markets now.
The top end of luxury apartments is crashing. Anything built in the last two years with a separate bathroom for every bedroom or a wet bar has been reduced in price 10% YOY.
Work force housing and family housing will never crash again because renting in a REIT is the new paradigm. This includes things like Invitation Houses, Blackstone, etc. They are supporting the bottom end of the market and keeping entry levels prices at 3-4x the average yearly salary for an area. This is largely to launder money or at least to diversify funds internationally.

Unless you're in Australia, then shit's hitting the fan.

When the majority of boomers finally croak, which should take about 30-40 years.

>>12681335
Housing prices may only increase by decree of the Fed and boomers.

>>12681397
So has subprime dumping started again yet or not? I mean I had an inkling it was running up again when Quicken started their Rocket Mortgage App but couldn't really come up with any better or more accurate indicators

>>12681955
>$1.6m collapsing single home near LA.png

>>12681777
in leaf country real estate kept going up after 2007, when will the pain end?

>>12681895
Anywhere that’s been boosted by the massive outflows of laundered chink money are on shaky ground.

Housing prices will go down when interest rates rise, I work in banking and most people who take out loans only care about the monthly loan payment amount, not the total amount, a big part of why housing prices have gotten so high is because the monthly payment on high priced houses is still the same as it would have been with a lower overall price and higher interest rates. You see the same thing happening with cars, new car prices have gotten to be ridiculous, average new car price is 30k, and that's because people have been getting 0% interest loans, so they don't care because they can afford the monthly payment.

>>12681335
Chill my man, just rent for a couple more years. Boomers are starting to die off and the next crash is imminent. You'll get a McMansion for the price of a McChicken.

>>12681727
This. The major price run ups in cities like Vancouver and Seattle were fueled by rich Chinese investors looking to park their money somewhere outside of China. They were paying cash. Now that regulations on both sides of the ocean are causing these investments to dry up, the demand is way down and the luxury property markets are starting to fall. Those cities do have strong local economic growth though, so this might just be a small correction. This is just one example of how this bubble looks a lot different than 2007.

>>12682014
Interest rates do play a big factor in affordability. I'm curious how high rates will actually get though before we hit another recession and rates come back down. It blows my mind that people were paying 7-8% as recently as the late 90s/early 00s. I can't see rates actually getting that high before the economy starts to crash.

>>12681990
nah dog, they're just going to keep renting it out.
rental markets are still super unregulated and they'll just keep raising prices as they need it.
It's legitimately getting to the point where some of these companies can coordinate a sweeping rent increase across a neighborhood through oligolopy.

havent you guys heard of the new paradigm?
if something happens the central banks will just buy defaulted credits. the era of boom and bust is over. boomers even stole that from us by designing a system of stagflation thaz will last at least a century.

>>12682115
first smart post I've seen on /biz/ that I didn't make in a long time

>>12682095

people were paying 18 percent in the late 80s. mortgage industry is bleeding right now due to the 10 year treasury rise that wiped out our refinance loan opportunities

>>12681699
A lot of homes I've been keeping tabs on in the Bay Area are starting to sell for like 5% to 3% less of the asking price. There are also a shit load of homes coming up on the market. Pic related. The grey bars are recessions.

>>12682502
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/31/new-home-prices-drop-12-as-supply-surges/
some of the most honest reporting on this

>>12681335
It won't "crash" in a way that's meaningful to you; most millennials will still never be able to own their own homes within any reasonable timeframe, but prices are certainly easing from extremely unaffordable down to just very unaffordable.

>>12681335
Hopefully soon. You failures like to blame all your problems on boomers and say that they "crashed the housing market," but it's clear you don't even know what that means when the prices are higher than ever. A crashed market means prime time to buy a house.

>>12682632
A housing crash is when there aren't enough buyers to keep the prices propped up, by definition most people looking to buy won't be buying during a crash.
During a housing crash, nobody wants to buy because they think they can get a better deal in a few months.
During a housing crash creditors dry up and won't let most people buy unless they have 40+% up front.
A system that regularly fucks the majority of it's agents can be critiqued for it's systemic faults.

Everything you've spouted off here is intrinsically contradictory.

>>12681698
You should see california.
Look at this home from texas. The same home in california would cost a little over a mil. Corruption.