/biz/ - Business & Finance

https://twitter.com/Colgo/status/1092601756259766273

>CBA economists Gareth Aird: "It's clear the correction in dwelling prices is spreading to the broader economy"

That's that negative wealth effect we've been talking about for some time.

2020 global recession lads?

>>12654452
Bunch of fucking morons I went to Uni with (until they dropped out to be real estate agents) are crying in unison right now because mark my words, Canada is next.
Housing is a bubble, the cost of renting is almost cheaper than buying for the first time in decades here.

Based Op. Based.

>>12654477
what about L O N D O N

we know the real pain is yet to come, do we have some interesting ways to profit from this, gentlemen?

>>12654452
U know u guys keep making these threads yet stock market is strong as ever

Get real schiff worshipping losers

That's what happens when your housing market doesn't correct in over 20 years.

>>12654493
Fuck Canada, London and Australia. Norway's housing is going to be an amazing thing to see fall.

>>12654520
>market is strong
everyone keeps saying this but they can never tell you where that "strength" comes from

>>12654493
Uk 100% brexit fucked their asses a bit.
Some uncovered parity opportunities because of the rapid currency unravel after referendum but that hasn't lasted.

This shit doesn't make sense anymore. Numbers are dumb af. Percentage of income spent on living in cities like Toronto/London/New York is going up like twice as fast as inflation ffs

>>12654520
Fren, please understand the difference between skycasinos that deal in derivatives and fake money and asset markets.

We're talking about housing here.
And now because of you i'm forced to call an anon an autist today. Really didn't want this but you really fucked me here.

you autist.

>>12654539
based anon
They literally don't even have a strategy post oil economy housing collapse would be funny af.

>>12654477
Yeah Canada and Australia seem to follow the same trends given their economies and size and probably helped by their government similarity. Our currencies are basically always the same.

I read not long ago that lending to anyone had been clamped down on, which is always going to put downward pressure on prices - and you too were victims of the Chinese hyperinflation being exported into real estate until China clamped down on capital flight. So your real estate market will be the same, and the negative wealth effect will play out similarly. You should watch Australia for a future glimpse into which stocks are going to rise/fall and see whether that can inform your own decisions domestically.

>>12654578
Guy u responded to here

I live for comments like ursi pray u r right

>>/x/

>>12654468
10/2 yield inversion in March 19. Global markets freak out for a while. Very likely global recession by Dec 2020.

>>12654637
>Data is /x/

Seething malinvestor

>>12654613
>Our currencies are basically always the same.

It's like it's always trying to revert to the mean of parity

>>12654520
>>12654541
This is in part what causes the problem. The short-term cash can travel all over the world whereas people are much slower. One could blame debt-culture. And that is fair, but what is new is debt-culture + velocity of money. The efficiencies of a global market + open boarders is redrawing the map, economically, culturally yada yada. When you throw in a lot of debt and the money leaves quickly shit sucks. But the world is big enough, and people's models are longer and wider than toronto;they say it feels better on the whole

>>12654613
The chinese thing was the exact same as the arab thing in London. Saudis would buy these ridiculously high priced appartments and townhouses and would never be in town to use them, wouldnt service the properties, and in general just made it impossible to live in the 'city' wihout working in the 'city'.

Vancouver, Toronto.. these guys already legislated agains the chinese to stop foreign cash from fucking them like the UK but it was too late. People loved watching their mortgages pay themselves, they got drunk on the idea.

Quebec in a sense was isolated because of the language barrier, and the risk that investors saw in the separatist movement. This last election a few months ago has shown that the separatist movement is almost dead, and about half of Montreal (population 2 million) speaks english better than french.

So some markets in certain pockets are ripe for appreciation. Find them you can make a fucking killing.

>>12654672
Well to be fair to anon, have you seen the CAD/Venezuelan Bolivar spot lately lololol.

>>12654541
China. Oh wait, things aren’t going so well there right now. Perhaps there’s a connection, but I can’t quite put my finger on it.

>>12654751
Well honestly I know CNBC and Bloomberg have been trying to push that message rn, but things aren't that bad there.
6.6% is wet dream for U.S...
China's middle class is going to be 850 Million people soon, big economy.
I think it was Napoleon who said, "let her sleep, for when she awakes she will be a giant" etc...

>>12654785
Listen, if you lived in Australia, New Zealand or the west coast of North America there would be absolutely no question in your mind that those places are being invaded by Chinese money.

>>12654835
I don't doubt that whatsoever anon, in this instance you are very based.
I'm just saying people believe that China is hurting in a measure proportionate to that of the United States but it isn't.

>>12654866
Brave man trusting internal Chinese figures on growth

>>12654866
>>12654889
China is clamping down on capital flight as they are getting desperate. Also have no FX reserves.

>>12654452
C H I N K E D

>>12654889
True.
Honestly if I was party leadership in Beijing I'd be shitting my fiucking pants as a generation of chinese that has never seen a slow economy begins to feel the burn...

That being said it's fucking china..

> The Reserve Bank of Australia has opted to keep the interest cash rate at 1.5 per cent

No reprieve for mortgages

>>12654452
A sloppy head and shoulders on top of a massive fucking head and shoulder formation. Absolutely wrecked.

>>12654477
As long as people keep buying real estate and wagies rent them out then things will stay the same. When vacancy rates get high is when the bubble will burst.

>>12656629

Plus things aren't the same, APRA tightened lending. Unless people start borrowing a million dollars from overseas they're unable to secure that anymore. Prices will fall naturally in line with new lending amounts. If nothing else changed (and other things are changing) you'd see prices come down well over 30% in Sydney. The cheaper cities never needed to borrow $1m so they can still borrow the amount to increase pressure on prices, but that'll stop when prices are crashing in Sydney and prices rise and fall relative to the big city.

>"In 2016, a household would have been approved for a $1.15 million loan but would now only be able to borrow $620,000"

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/credit-crunch-to-trigger-worst-housing-downturn-since-1890-endeavour-20190130-h1an43

>>12654452
Happening bros

>be me
>anons in this thread two days ago be like “hur dur Tuesday will be worst day in ASX recent history”
>short ASX with 50x leverage
>liquidated overnight

Fuck you guys, the royal commission report actually gave the market a massive boost sigh...

https://twitter.com/cmkusher/status/1092595840588247040

Listings up tremendously in the investor capitals of Sydney and Melbourne.

Retiring boomers and investors all want to realise their gains before they fall further. Then the cohort from China who can no longer service their mortgages.

>>12657099