/biz/ - Business & Finance

brrrrraaaaaaaap

first for bears are retarded.

BRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

>>12368567

Bears unironically shorted the bottom Thursday and are still getting BTFO. Thanks for the money LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

GE $9 CALLS

>>12368999
check'd and kek'd

>>12369006
how many you got, cutiepie?

>>12368999
STOP POSTING THIS ITS NOT FUNNY ANYMORE

tfw CAD rallies and eats into your gains on US stocks since you bought in at a more expensive exchange rate

oh well at least I have more buying more

>>12369035
his digits suggest it's funny because it's true

>>12369038
*more buying power

Think I am going to hold my AMD call 1 more day even though I am up 100% on it...

I'm really scared desu. I have a feeling Trump is going to declare war on China during his address at 9pm tomorrow, but I'm going to miss his speech because I can't miss Hannity which starts at the same time.

>>12369100
>trump starting war with anybody

>>12369100
He wrote art of the deal

>>12369100
KEKER TARLSON

GALT up more than 12% today

>>12369100
Slipery slope into absolute insanity

>>12369091
value? post it

three red soldiers on TLT, my puts are going to the fucking sun.

to h*ck with bears

Sup guys Im new around here.
Buy SKX

>>12369100
Kek. America would kick China's ass. We beat Japan who raped them. It's obvious what would happen if they fought us.

>>12369032

10, hbu baby?

>>12369100

Do you think for one second Trump won't be shown on Hannity's show?

>t-bags wolf girl
BASED

>>12369139
Price is up to $4.30 now

>>12369143
this is channel four, you can say shit like hell and cock sucking bears get fucked in the ass by a bunch of bull leprechauns while they take your money and put it in their pot of gold.

>>12369160
you're right, I won't miss anything.

>>12369190
you can even say NIGGER, how 'bout that

>>12369182
how many calls is that? looks juicy my friend

>>12369224
15 - I should probably sell 7-8 and let the others ride.

THREADLY REMINDER THAT DIVIDENDS ARE YOUR FREN

how was everyone's weekend? took a hike in the mountains on saturday and I got right ripped watching NFL on sunday.

>>12369210
yeah but desu you can't say onions, or basedboy

>>12369210
you can even say sempai and desu!

>>12368999
IT HURTS SO MUCH. REEEEEEE

ill go sleep wake me up wednesday or whenever the whipsaw is i cant take this anymore

>>12369236
I went bowling with my Dividends

>>12369232
that's 6450$ value, am I right? I'd hold onto it, CES is sounding promising

how will drumpf manage to not delay tax refunds with only 1/8th of the IRS staffed? I call bullshit

Stay liquid until the Brexit vote, then short it.

A little over $3,000 profit with $3,000 on the call. Going to but the rumor sell the news meme with CES

>>12369320
short gbp futures

fuck AMD and fuck white people

>>12369278
>not DRIP reinvesting
Faggot

BUY RAD

We're hodlers and we're not selling rebound with 90rsi

what are some cheap (less than $50) easy long term (april or later) options for brexit moneys?

or some really cheap (less than $20) easy short term (1-2 months) options in general?

I want to get my feet wet with options, but being able to lose $100+ from one bad trade overnight is too scary for me

pic unrelated?

Ain't I the kind of guy your momma told you not to hang around
Sure enough, you know who's gonna break your heart and bring you down
But she never saw you out at midnight
Actin' like you own the bar
To me you ain't no angel's child
I know who you are
Everybody thinks they know me
You're the saint and I'm the phony
But you're the one who faked it all along
Everybody sees you cryin'
Lyin', lookin' like you're dyin'
Everybody knows what's goin' on
But everybody's wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpHV6hMpkKU

slight profit taking nao traders and bottom buyers sell investors, pension funds and ctas buy. violent whipsaws are ofcourse poison for ctas

SESN UNDERVALUED

>>12369415
If you cant touch your frens do you really own them?

>>12369488
Compounding interest is a better friend than uselessly spending them

>>12369474

Big Orange Man is a hero
But only when his mind is clear though
He needs that fix like the rest of us
So he's got no fear when he saves that bus

All the stars in the Hollywood Hills
Snapchat live while they pop them pills
All those flavors of the rainbow
Too bad that shit don't work though
Your friends are high right now
Your parents are high right now
That hot chick's high right now
That cop is high right now
Our president's high right now
Your priest is high right now
Everyone's high as fuck right now
And no one's ever coming down
I am so freakin' bored
It's just a sideways day
I guess I'll sit around and medicate
I am so freakin' bored
It's just a sideways day
I guess I'll sit around and medicate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwxfmYR7ItM

Ding ding ding! How did everyone do today> I'm up .27%, STILL mostly cash. I don't trust this. I'm saddened to announce that LCI hit my limit sell for 7.00 today and has won the Race to Seven Bucks tm. Nikki and RKG, you guys are in trouble!

>>12369539
Green day because green ID

Sold some short, hope it don't bite me in the ass

>>12369525
I prefer to use the divs to buy Cheesebagas now since I add more per year anyway

>>12369539
A 7 dollar competition? interesting. well congrats to the winners

Im up several percent thanks to Skechers

>>12369539
up again 1.5% today. Still 85% cash myself. Waiting for Wednesday where I'll get primo guap on exercising gayMD calls

swag

>>12369539
6.46%
Fuck anyone who says penny stocks aren't the greatest things on the planet

>>12369466
Sauce?

>>12369539
fucking stellar day

>>12369623
penny stocks are underappreciated

>>12369666
JUST HODL

>>12369683
I started on 6-21-18, btw

>>12369539
hodl indeed

Not fucken bad for one day. Getting out of that hole.

>>12369666
once GALT gets bo you should have a few thousand more to play with

>>12369530
United states of Benzos

>>12369724
Is GALT, LCI and TQQQ the holy trinity of smg stocks?

:D and includes only ssri. about half poputaion at age 60% taking some psychiatric med! country well run by drug companies nao

>>12369743
dats nothing

>143 prescriptions per 100 people

Wait what is this fucking shit? I'ma get BTFO at open aren't I?

>>12369777
>SQQQ rising as soon as afterhours starts
>triple 7's

hmmm

>>12369777
No, the SPY is on track to have something known as the Golden Bull run

>>12369786
I want some of your drugs.

>not putting your stocks in NVIDIA before the biggest HAPPENING of the tech industry arrives

>>12369776
that's pretty bad cause about one third of population underage, who cannot be prescripted

>>12369539
Up twenty bucks. Things are looking good.

I'm glad I went through all that trouble to get the historical returns for putting money in bonds after a yield inversion since now I know just about how long I should wait (4 years max), and what returns I can expect in the long term (30% nominal).

You know a strategy is elegant when the only serious problem you run into is capital gains tax.

>>12369807
Me too, sobriety sucks ass

Although I like synthetic weed more than painkillers

>>12369777
Oh baby a triple

CGA up a bit

Its do or die

>>12369810
I really hope you meant shorting NVDA

What effect will the announcement of RBG's death have on markets?

>>12369898
she's not going to die, they keep sacrificing migrant children so she can stay alive.

>>12369898
Momentary shock, then stabilized, then bullish. Trump obstructionists have been consistently BTFO, and I think she'll be no exception

Well if there's bad news from China, hopefully gold will moon and I don't get completely btfo.

>>12369539
up 2.75% today, GE putting in work

Uh....guys....

>>12370023
Bullish for healthcare.

>>12370023
We're so far away from the galactic center that we'll be fine.

>>12370023
How do I short the galaxy?

>>12370023
since i don't believe in reincarnation, this is irrelevant

>>12370023
Should I short Tesla?

>>12369860
What bonds did you get? 10 year?

Lci got room to go up still? I don’t mind being a bit late but I sure don’t want to hold any bags on some up and down pharma shit

>>12363801 #
Ty to this anon a few threads back who gave me an excellent response to think about

>>12369735
I should, yeah
My portfolio will look a lot more """"""respectable"""""when that happens

Guys can any1 explain me dividend stocks? I tried to look up some information, but I'm just too stupid. How often do the companies pay dividends? How much do they pay? Do they always pay approximately the same amount? Wth do they mean when they talk about yield (an example would be nice)

>>12370233
Ko declared if you own their stock before X dated you'll be paid 0.14c on Y date per share.

>>12370062
I used ten year as the graph since that's the data available but right now I'm in 2 year and a bond mutual fund. The mutual fund will probably have the highest returns overall, however, I'll be buying more regular t bonds as time goes on.

>>12370233
Yield = percentage of the stock price they pay out as a dividend. the yield changes daily but the amount paid out does not.

Ofter: Most companies pay a quarterly dividend (once every 3 months). Some pay monthly, but due to the receipt not being outside of 60 days of each dividend, they're "unqualified" and taxed at your income rate.

How much? Depends on the company. You can look into each company's payment amount by google searching the stock ticker + dividend.

Pay the same? Each company that pays a dividend attempts to have a steady dividend and actually increase that dividend every year. Dividend kings have raised their dividend for 50+ years.

Before purchasing a dividend stock, research if that dividend is safe, what the payout ratio is and how well established the company is. Don't chase yield. Also look into what the payout ratio is and that it isn't over 100%

>>12370233

>>12370307
^this

Here's an example of what a Div stock will look like over time -- This is one share of WM

>>12370330
Shit in another 125 years you'll almost be able to buy a share of SPY!

>>12370355
Low IQ post

>>12370258
>>12370307
>>12370330
Thanks for your help guys! I truly appreciate it!

Smg=best thread with the best users

>>12370184

Sure thing, fren. Don't let the dude weed bamboozle you. Enter it on your terms when it proves it's bullish and not before. Don't get in the van until you're good and ready, no matter how bad you want the free beer and classic rock CDs.

>>12370404
Having a bad entry into a stock or option is an easy way to get raped and murdered.

>>12369539
Up 3%. Thanks in large part to AMRN and GE. GE is looking very good now. AMD is also on the rise, here's hoping it keeps going to 25 or 30.

Any britfags or europoors on here?

Trading212 app is finally up, zero fee on trades like Robinhood. Plus you get a free share(stock) if you sign up with someone's referral. Could be worth between £10-100. Here's my ref code trading212.com/ref/uzaCf

Used the app today, ok selection of shit. You can buy US shares but have to fill in extra forms and pay 0.3% fx fee.

He said that US Steel would be providing the steel right?
Is this #FreeMoney?

>>12370449
Also my top pick for tomorrow for britfags is morisons. Will end up 7-8%.

>>12370449
fuck off David

Well, who made money today? Up a comfy 5% here

>>12370168
It's going to $20 bro...

>>12370459
NANI?!

Anyone holding BDCs here?

>>12370459
I bought steel (X) today at market open.

>>12370467
today was pretty comfy, tomorrow is going to either make and or break me.

>>12370467

Yes, it was mostly green for my portfolio today. Green Thumb Industries shot up like mad so I skimmed off some profit. Terrascend broke bullish but then slammed on the brakes, pulled a Uie and promptly returned to support before I had a chance to do anything. Seven straight days hovering at support now with a gremlin sitting up there at resistance holding it down for whatever reason. I will wait as long as it takes to break up or down, continue to shlurp when the shlurping is good. In the green on it, as I got very lucky and entered at what appears to be the bottom for now, but not in the green by much. Just enough to make it a break even trade if things go south.

thank you to the LCI anon, you made me a pretty penny

can't wait for tomorrow :)

>>12370459
Dealio? Shut down over soon maybe?

>>12370549
that would be pretty based for the stock market

>>12370547
you should probably off yourself if these two conditions are met:

1. Trusting /smg/
2. taking a fucking screenshot of your computer screen, downloading that screenshot on your pc, renaming the file and posting it here

>>12370571
kek at 2

>>12370571
yikes....look at this dude

>>12370547
bro...
>https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/how-to-take-a-screenshot-on-pc/

>>12370597
he's right though

>>12370606
>pOOO
excellent

>>12370620
nice

>>12370606
>>12370620
long $POO

there is a vinshu.

g-guys im starting to FOMO on LCI

sirs there is vishnu in DOW, would like to hear more sirs?

>>12370744
yes sir,as i understand there there is a vinshu?>>12370655

>LCI
So what happened on aug17 that made it drop like that?

>>12370722
not gonna lie, it was my most profitable hold, I held LCI as a meme, but I think if GALT can get anything serious going with that 10m line of credit extension, then it might moon

>>12370756
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/23/heres-why-lannett-company-fell-as-much-as-148-toda.aspx

cut ties with supplier

>>12370722
you've missed the boat, accept it, learn from it, and catch what you missed this time arround

>>12370655
Do the needful buy NVAX

>>12370783
it was kinda a big deal, why are futures red as fuck? Was there news from China?

>>12370571
I fucking lold. That guy is going to get burned. I can tell just by his post.

>>12370786
Its going to $20.. don't be so salty

First

>>12370966
Filtered

>>12370966
ty brother, made some nice calls on your stock
will be shorting it soon though

God help me I am seriously considering entering a swing on fucking Canadian Tire. For burgers unaware of the Tire, it's sort of like a halfway thing between walmart and home depot with more automotive focus.

>>12370966
not salty friend, you've been very consistent with your analysis of LCI. Salty FOMO is what get's you justed.

>>12371003
based on TA? what are your fundamentals?

>>12371007
You do realize that over half the float is short and 85% is owned by institutions that aren't going to be selling anytime soon right?

>>12370986
I hope you do, you can buy the shares that you short back from me at $20

>>12370986
Please do.

>>12371034
see when I said
>you've been very consistent with your analysis of LCI
yes I am aware that over half the float is short and 85% is owned by institutions that aren't going to be selling anytime soon.

>>12371032

Mainly based on TA, yes. Their financials are fine.

>>12371059
Filter her and move on

>>12370769
>Line of credit extension

That's hardly the most promising catalyst at hand here, friend
There's still Phase 3 NASH trial design, melanoma trial expansion, and a potential BO/partnership to look forward to

>>12371003
Looks like a solid buy, Go for it dude.

>>12370966
20$ must be his average. You newfags really need to be careful with this one. He's a bag shilling shitposter with multiple tripcodes.

>>12371091

See now the problem is I don't particularly like Canadian Tire and feel mildly itchy whenever I set foot in their stores to buy extension cords and washer fluid. The prospect of having their shares smelling of rubber and oil inside my portfolio will feel mildly unpleasant, I expect.

>>12371108
>formerly big5guy
>formerly chuck's

>>12371108
>with multiple tripcodes.
That just sounds like people are impersonating him to troll retards.
But well I don't know, he sounds like a cunt.

>>12371128
to be totally honest the entire swing price seems ridiculous to me but everything looks like a good buy indicator.

I've bought when its up,
I've bought when its down,
I've bought from the cities,
And I've bought from the towns,
I've bought when its right,
I've bought when its wrong,
But the best money spent,
Was when I bought your mom

>>12371132
>big5guy's bags and bags

Hello all. Follow me here as im also a poster on /sp/. The ncaa championship is tonight and did horrible in ticket sales. Assumming this trend extends to TV as well ESPN will miss their expected market share that they promised to advertisers thus losing money. Espn currently has about as much invested in college athletics as bear sterns did in housing bonds in 07 (10B$). Is it then possible that disney will see a solid dip in the coming weeks when all this is revealed?

>>12371215
if it does you buy the dip, disney doesn't go down

>>12371170

Yeah I want to see it break that resistance it's hovering below and then I'll dip in a toe.

>>12371173

7/10

>>12371260
I'll take it

>>12371215
They don't make anywhere close in ticket sales as they do in the 4 hours of ads they will run.

Can someone post the Google Drive for the books?

>>12370027
Underrated

Hey would you look at that, the futures are up for some reason.

>>12371215
you forget their deal they have with the UFC in 2019 faggot?

stop spreading lies...ESPN is gonna BOOM even more than it has because of their acquisition of the MMA market faggot nigger animal

>>12371173
Beautiful

Minor dude weed update for the leaf side of the equation. It seems the Ontario online weed shop listed seeds for sale finally last week. Sole seed supplier was Canopy Growth. Asking prices were astronomical but they sold out completely already. No idea how much stock they had on offer to begin with but immediate sell out is a swift kick in the ass for Canopy Growth, I think. Maybe it'll pop a bit on this news tomorrow.

Still planning to liquidate all Canadian dude weed prior to Friday when Aphria's earnings release. Aphria is first LP to put out a quarterly earnings with legal sales included from October 2018. I suspect excellent percentages above previous earnings, of course, but also very likely to be short of expectations. These stocks have been trading with the idea of billions in revenue. Who knows though. I just don't want exposure to the uncertainty.

https://mjobserver.com/canada/ontario/ontario-cannabis-store-sells-out-of-all-tweed-seeds/

$15 leaf buck PER SEED and still sold out. Holy moly.

Over at /g/ watching Intel CES.
What do you all think if it will move Intel (INTC) or AMD?

>>12371348
Thanks fren

>>12371335
>espn+
NO

Thinking of selling my Fox stock. I got the paper work about the merger w/Dis and after looking it over it gives these options:
Cash @ $38 per share (which now Fox is going for almost 48 per)
Dis Shares @ 0.33 per 1 fox.
Since I got only two fox that would only get me 0.66 of a Dis share

Doling out partial shares is a non event, they'll default to cash option.

I already got Dis stock anyway.

Reminder that there is exactly zero reason for this "rally". I liquidated in December and am confident that we will hit new lows within a month. Nothing has improved. The jobs number just show that economy has peaked. It is impossible for economy to continue to exponentially grow at peak.

>>12371298
>t. Doesnt understand how advertising works
They have to have a certain market share or they lose advertisers on the next go around

>>12371486
cuz i said so

Because the amount of people at the a sporting venue has anything to do with market share and commercials?

>>12371549
people don't watch espn they watch all their sports on fox now.

>>12371510
Let's go through the list

Trade War
Slowing economic growth
Record drops and spikes in the market
Missed earnings
Revised guidance downwards
Government shutdown

What the heck is going on that keeps these rallies going?

>>12371568
The poster said that the college football championship game tonight didn't sell all of the tickets to the game. He asked if it would matter to Disney because the game is on ESPN. The other guy said they would lose advertisers from the stadium not being filled.

>>12369530

Enjoy your early death from overdose.

>>12371510
>What the heck is going on that keeps these rallies going?

cause stone cold said so

CGA up 10% is this a moonlander?

>>12371583
Basically everything you just said is Fundamentals and Gets ignored by the market
You still see shitcoin articles saying BTC is going to 50k EOY too but that doesnt happen

Fundamentals mean very little without the support of Thier bull TA

tl;dr Everything you see on the news doesnt mean jack shit.

>>12371625
That's all I needed to hear.

>>12371639
>Chinese penny stock
absolute yuck

>intel calls expiring next week
>ces 2019 was an even worse shitshow than expected
holy fuck

If LCI has a 10% or more pullback I might add more.

>be 4:00 p.m. EST
>*ding* *ding* *ding* *ding*
>blocks your path

Margin Call, gentlemen.

Bend over.

>>12371692
I'd sell them and never look back after seeing that chart on anything other than 5min

>>12371727
>implying I have a margin account

>>12371689
what happened? I didn't even pay attention to what went down today, i'm mostly looking forward to AMD on wednesday

SPY calls

>>12371482
Never mind; think I'll keep my Fox after all.

Re read the document. Seems that no mater which option you pick you'll also get shares in the "New Fox" spin off. Number of shares equals the number of old Fox you had before the merger.

So in my case I'll get $76 cash + two new fox shares that will no doubt quickly rise in value. Could potentially end up with both trading at $48 per which is what the current Fox is going at.

>>12371745
They revealed pretty much nothing at all.

>>12369091

Definitely get rid of it a day or two before ces

>LCI guy bad
>Anonymous FUD posters good

>>12371823

filtered

>>12371823
@_@
am not funny anymore

>>12371766
Isn't wednesday going to be the big day anyway? AMD and NVIDIA?

tomorrow or wednesday market peaks. Hope you're positioned to short. Me? Im going heavy biotech shorts, maybe pick up some sqqq

>>12371862
Yeah

>>12371745
revealed nothing of worth except some weird 5 cpu system that is probably going to not make a dent in ARM
dodged everything about 10nm
vague speeches from various industry partners also giving zero information about their purported products

>>12371862
nvidia made their presentation on sunday. they does not give a shit about gamers it's all about AI for him now i'm sure.

How hard is Intel going to fall tomorrow? That presentation was an absolute shitshow and they have nothing to show for 2019 was AMD is going to assrape them with Zen2.

>>12371961
>tfw funding my brokerage takes a day and I might miss out on AMD greenies

>>12371985
They already failed I thought. They just got done with their presentation.

>>12371486

You’re a pessimist nigger. The market moves forward, grows, and makes more because that’s what people strive to do, that’s the goal. If everyone was like you there wouldn’t be a market at all.

>>12372029
Seems everyone is jumping on the AMD train everywhere I read. Makes me want to sell my calls and shares tomorrow.

>>12371985
Thought you said fail not fall.

>>12372055
>Seems everyone is jumping on the AMD train everywhere I read. Makes me want to sell my calls and shares tomorrow.
Normally you'd be right; that said, I think holding up until the presentation and getting rid of it once the hype dies down is the best strategy.

From what I've been reading, it seems like the bar is really low for AMD to impress people considering the lackluster NVIDIA and INTEL presentations

does anyone have any tips on selling puts for some side income?

right now i'm just looking at put options with high IV like AMD

>>12372049
long term v short term view. Buy cheapies or short now, win-win

Whats going to be the best performing stock of 2019 and why is it LCI?

>>12372077
I'm gonna hold till it hits 25 - 30 then sell fast. Seems the way it goes; steady climb then a spectacular free fall.

>>12372076

markov chains are your friends

>>12372097
Slick hair man sounds like he's buying up all the float. I put in a large position for me. Now I wish I did more.

Asian markets getting dabbed on a little. Nothing crazy, but they are down.

>>12372122
i'm a brainlet, please explain more

>>12371759
what if you bought another share could you take the disney and the 3 new foxes

Nvax legit?

>>12372168

What's your highest level of maths?

>>12372133
Looks like there was a lot of trading in the $20-$25 range.. could possibly go right back up there very soon..

>>12372175
I'm balls deep in it but got in around $1.50 average. Not sure I would trust it at $2.25. There is a conference with JP Morgan Wednesday that could pump it a lot but that is far from a guarantee.

>>12372076
>writing puts
>side income
what the fuck?

>>12368972
that picture is really cute

>>12372076
you should sell puts on stuff your bullish on and not worried about holding. Should have weekly settlement dates and lots of liquidity in the option market. Worst case is the stock gets put on you, and you end up writing covered calls until you've got your cash back.

>>12372178
linear algebra/calc 3
in college i did take a course on option pricing and learned about Black Scholes, however the highest priced puts right now are based on actual news (for example, AMD puts are actually trading for over 10% the theoretical premium that BS gives, which is why I believe it's a great opp to sell them).

tl,dr: the best priced puts have price premiums that are due to anticipated news and not random walk, therefore economic models are not the best to predict them with

>>12371961
>>12371985
They confirmed 10nm is now in full production for smaller dies.
They confirmed cascade lake and optane dimms shipping (people underestimate this. Data centers are thirsty as fuck for optane dimms. you can stick 512gb per dimm slot and its much cheaper per gb than dram).
They also confirmed they got their 1big4small super low power die working and at the same time active interposer with IO system. That is fucking huge.
The AI inference NNP chip, 5G edge soc snow ridge, IOT (including mobileye).

In some kinds of workloads where memory size doesn't matter, Zen 2 will be ahead in the data center, and be cheaper as well. Consumer market is small comparatively, but Zen 2 will take market share there too.

Considering Foveros' active interposer and 10nm becoming mature now, Intel will have caught up to AMD in every way AMD will have an advantage from Zen 2 before Zen 3 launches, which will likely only match what Intel will ship in 2020. AMD will stay below 15% of server sales until it is overtaken again.

All that said, people won't understand any of this, so don't expect a pump. They made especially a poor job at explaining the benefit of optane dimms, which is not their persistence, but their density and cost/gb, which is going to revolutionize many types of data centers, especially virtual server hosting, AI and other large dataset calculation tasks with massive in-memory computing.

>>12372172
You could. But right now Fox is going for 48 per. Three of them would be worth $144. You can buy one Dis share for only $112. So $32 difference.

>>12372270
What I mean by the active interposer being important is that it allows a much better chiplets server system than Zen 2 Rome has and you can bet your ass they are already sampling silicon on 10nm for that. They already managed to make the 4core 64ge APUs chips, so with a similar die size, they could have a chiplet server on foveros active interposer with 6-8 cores per chiplet on 10nm. They can do this NOW. Their yield is good enough now. Or else they would not have started mass production of that consumer APU.

Looks like China and the Hang Seng Index are reacting to Samsung news about earnings.

Samsung just proved that Apple was not an anomaly or """glitch"""". SPY to 200 by EOY. You are blind if you can't see recession. Major tech companies are bleeding. The gravy train is over. So glad I liquidated in December.

>>12372281
Fuck it, I can sell the Fox and roll the profit into buying more T. Got 14 T shares now; be able to buy 3 more T. 17 x 0.51 x 4 = 34.68 a yr in div payout. That payout is enough to add 1 whole T share a yr via drip so each yr the payout would go up $2.04. Then if I buy more T during a dip that payout would only increase.

>>12372387
Nah.

>>12372387
Well, Asia is back in the green so it seems they don't care.

>>12372387
If you liquidated in December, why are you still posting here? You aren't going to convince anyone.

>>12372387
>jobs killing it
>wages rising
>trade deal soon
>household debt is reasonable

yeah nah cunt. just because one saturated shitty industry (smartphones) is having a hard time doesnt mean a recession is near.

>>12372466
lost all his money and is salty

>>12372467

those indicators lag, retardo. If not a recession at the very least a prolonged bear market

Anybody want to talk actual equity valuations, or are these threads always just technical analysis and gambling? Decades of academic research flies in the face of 90% of this thread. Most of the strategies expounded here are not recommended or even realistic paths to wealth accumulation. Low tax, low turnover, low fee diversified funds with a long horizon and appropriate risk alignment is the only approach to investment planning that any fiduciary would recommend. Yet these threads rarely contain actual valuation analysis; posters encourage high turnover and thus more taxable events; and there's regularly a gross misunderstanding of modern capital market and portfolio theory.

Doesn't anyone here actually work in the industry and stop by for fun? Anybody here in corporate finance, M&A, buy/sell-side analysis, private wealth management?

>>12372387
>Major tech companies are bleeding. The gravy train is over. So glad I liquidated in December.
imagine unironically believing that tech is the only thing propping up an economy

>>12369100
Absolutely boomer

>>12372498
We do recommend low cost index funds. But they are boring and not at all sexy.

So 10% of my money goes in individual stocks. And they are what I talk about.

found another good put selling op on TLRY

Jan 11 expiry, puts with a 72 strike with a premium of 4.48

Investor lockup is Jan 15, so don't expect a major drop until then. Even if assigned, you will be buying at 67.52 per share.

Opinions?

>>12372498
most of the people with money here have already implemented a boglehead lazy portfolio of sorts. however most posters are younger and slinging nickels around because they dont currently have the income to put a real wealth building strategy to work.

>>12372551
This, it's the whole "convex in losses, concave in gains" attitude towards risk that is more prevalent because it's younger posters (myself included) that are looking for that 1 buy-in out of the hole. I think positioning and timing your entry is critical.

>>12372498

>>12372467
Better jobs and wages are bad for profits, it's not household debt you have to worry about, it's corporate debt.

>>12372498
I've worked in banking regulation for a couple years, and here's my analysis for you. >>12369860
Not that many people listen.

I do a mix:
Standard stocks for growth + divs
But I also got a lot ridding on AMRN
AMRN is kinda like the "Amazon" of biotech, lot of insane growth/profit lies with it. Once the FDA green lights it there is no stopping it.

>>12372270
>10nm becoming mature now
Not even. The demand for Intel chips is for 14nm because the pricepoint/performance is the what most commercial applications want. 10nm is cool, but it’s still in “Tick” phase and probably won’t “Tock” for another year or two and that’s IF intel can get new fabs built out and ramped.

Their memory stuff is fire tho. I expect Q4 earnings to be another company record.

Permit me to blog for a moment /smg/. I met the face of bad investing. I have seen him and have been told his story.

I met a boomer at work today. God what a story of JUST he had to share. He retired, initially, at 52 years old. No, I'm getting ahead of myself. See here, I was training him to do my wageslave job. He asks what I do and I say this bullshit right here and also stock trading. He perks up at that. Evidently he has a history of sorrow and woe with the stock market. See, he got way in to options trading at some point. Options this and options this. Says he signed up for all sorts of courses and information. Still gets text message updates from his "options guy". But my god the JUST. He had a financial advisor who ran his shit in to the ground but good. Wife divorced him because he lost so much money. "Lost my shirt" he said. Now he's house poor (still has the house from the divorce). Has to do my part-time wagie job for the extra dosh. He kept asking me if I wanted to see his options trading tutorial DVDs. Ex wife cleaned him out to the tune of 50% of whatever was left after his options trading fiasco.

It was a sobering encounter. From what I could gather, he had it made in the shade and could have coasted on dividends for the rest of his life. But no. He and his "options guy" had to go on a gambling spree of shorting the bottom and buying the top. Pretty crazy.

That's all for the blog. Also buy Canada Goose. It's headed back to $90 leafs.

>>12372782
He probably still posts advice on /smg, I'd bet it is LCI guy.

>>12372782
sounds like he has other issues if he's still pushing the idea of options on other people after he fucked his own shit up. dude is probably at the casino every weekend.

>>12372804

lol. He was mostly in oil stocks from what I gather. Basically rode the trolley straight to hell, sold the bottom, missed the recovery because he was scared of the proverbial sucker's rally. Eeek.

long term investment grade bonds and precious metals are the place to be right now

2019 is gonna suck ass

>>12372782

Desire for a better life with visualized money is a powerful thing. Options are just too Risky for me, because you may be right about the price action but wrong about the timing, thus losing money.

I think its easier to do leveraged ETFs. Sure you might lose 80% of your dough, but that's still better than all of it.

All you have to do is recognise a long term high or a long term low and hope like hell that the market isn't so exuberant to blow past you.

>>12372815

I can see a lot of people investing in oil circa 2006 or 2007... Perhaps even more recently around 2014, and then a huge price action downwards comes and they get wiped out.

That 27 dollars per barrel we saw in 2016 was brutal.

>>12372656
>AMRN is kinda like the "Amazon" of biotech

they have one drug in their pipeline, don't get ahead of yourself

>>12372827
>Sure you might lose 80% of your dough
i assume you don't have multiple years of savings in positions like that.

>>12372827
Leveraged etfs are definitely better since you can hold them if necessary

>>12372864
God i love that gif

>>12372637
thanks. what is inversion on your chart, moving into that asset when the yield curve inverts? if so, what is the strategy plotting when the yield curve then normalizes?
if i'm understanding your graph correctly, it seems like a reasonable starting point for a non-taxable investor (pension fund, etc.). but for taxable investors, a mix of bonds and equities with rebalancing via cash infusion into underweighted positions instead of selling positions and creating taxable events should produce returns exceeding an all equity or bond portfolio. the main worry is that people are fallible and emotional, the more they micromanage investment portfolios the more likely they are to make suboptimal decisions. buying an appropriate fund or set of funds and putting a blindfold on for 40-50 years will almost surely produce greater wealth than more active strategies, at least for the taxable investor.
were you with FINRA?

>>12372827
I fully agree that 3x leveraged ETFs are better than options, but I still think they're bad in the long term (2x are better, since they can theoretically handle more volatility without getting liquidated and decay less over time)

>>12372875
I especially like how it looks when his face is just starting to turn

>>12372864

Stephen Harper is a reptilian. It is patently obvious.

>>12372893
No, not FINRA, and I'd prefer not to say so I don't make it easier for people to dox me. Admittedly, I worked with the legislative policy side of things, so less technical than other departments. But you learn a lot watching and summarizing congressional hearings all day.

As for the graph, the red line is when you move into 10 year T bonds for three years after every yield curve inversion before moving them back into stocks. It's not a perfect model, however, since I was forced to assume you'd sell the bonds are face value and I just set the capital gains tax at 25% for all selling. Still, I think where those factors err, they err on the side of diminishing the returns for the strategy of selling when the yield curve inverts.

Yeah, ideally it'd be better just to put cash in so as to escape taxes but that's also more difficult to model (I still haven't got the regular cash infusion part of the code working yet).

The reason I made the graph, however, was that I only recently started investing seriously because I'm hoping to get enough to buy a house in about ten years, hence I can't just put a blindfold on and wait half a century.

>>12373008
>hence I can't just put a blindfold on and wait half a century.

I know this feel.

>>12372551
>>12372498
this, most posters here are in their early-mid 20s (I'm 20) and are likely either very early in their careers or in college

>>12372551
>>12371852
also, you aren't supposed to be here right now, poo (I don't blame you, though, I'd do the same thing)

>>12373042
>the pOOO id is brown too

kek

Am i the only one betting on an oil rebound this year?

>>12373098
get out

>>12372868

I'm going to cost average $120k into SQQQ at dollar intervals dollar below 15.

I'm either gonna end up like that boomer or the nasdaq will shit the bed to 5000 and I'll have enough to live off dividends/Bank interest.

New thread?

>>12373098
With the fracking revolution in the america, i'd be highly cautious anon.

>>12373098

Stupid frog poster. Oil at 50 could go either way. You want to be in oil when it has shit the bed in inflation adjusted lows.

In 2016, oil was 27. I think the absolute low for oil, inflation adjusted, was 18 in 1998.

>>12373098
I am in UWT which is a 3x long on oil.

>>12373008
it's an interesting chart

from what i can add, since you clearly have a goal and timeline in mind (home ownership, 10 yrs), i've found that most literature and risk questionnaires misrepresent the optimal risk alignment strategy.

they tend to only focus on two variables, but three are important: risk requirement, risk capacity, and risk tolerance. depending on your circumstances, they put a min or max on the risk you should assume.

risk requirement is the minimum return needed to fund your goal. so if you have 10K today and need 200K in 10 years, you'd need a 35% CAGR
[$10,000 x (1 + 0.35)^10 ~=~ $200,000]

risk tolerance is your own personal tolerance for risk, e.g. do you get jittery when 10K is on the line, or when markets drop 10% in a month

risk capacity is an understated component, but it is based on your net worth. basically, if you have outstanding liabilities like student or credit card debt, this can significantly impact your net worth (annual earnings + savings - these liabilities). if you have debt liabilities like these, then you shouldn't partake in risky strategies -- you should first generate positive net worth. that means prioritizing student and credit card debt over investment.

only if you have a positive net worth (earnings and savings which exceed liabilities) should investment markets can be considered, since they are inherently risky and the only risk-free returns you'll find would be below your liability interest rate. in that case, you should invest in a strategy which is at the max of either your risk requirement (the rate needed to fund your goals) or your risk tolerance (the risk level which you can keep yourself from emotionally buying and selling securities when shit hits the fan).

hope that adds some perspective. best ofluck on your goal.

>>12373098
>>12373183
It's also the stock that I have the least amount of money in for what it's worth.

>>12373173
>>12373139
>>12373117
wew good thing you guys didn't say buy then I would know oil is fucked

>>12373186
* sorry, which is at the MIN of your risk requirement or your risk tolerance. with a positive net worth, these become the limiting factors on the strategy you should participate in; e.g. don't chase unrealistic returns if you don't have the tolerance for it... more realistic about your goals and accept that they can't be responsibly achieved given your risk tolerance; or alternatively, don't chase excessive returns that you don't actually need... instead, accept the lower returns instead of taking on the unneeded risk, even if you have the capacity for it

>>12373196

oil is most definitely going to test 30s this year, your question was retarded because there are literally 12 months left of the year so a "rebound" (to what fucking price?) is possible 7 months from now

bottom line if you buy crude long term right now you are indeed retarded as it is obviously in a bear market. It will not bottom until equities do, which is months out

>>12373186
A low risk tolerance is another reason why I'm doing all this. I can't stand the idea of just eating a market crash and taking the losses. The best way to win, in my opinion, is to never lose.

As for risk capacity, thank goodness I came out of college debt free or none of this would be possible in the first place.

The reason I'm attracted to this strategy in the first place is that the primary risk is capital gains tax. While there have been false positive yield curve inversions, there hasn't been a case where its happened during market lows. Investing in bonds allows me to both preserve the value I have, and the worst case scenario I have while in this defensive posture is missing out on higher gains rather than loosing money hand over fist. Which means the downside while I'm defensive is 2-3% returns while the upside is potentially 30% nominal average returns. Since I'm starting off defensive due to the recent inversion, it's win win.

Thanks for the advice, anon. It's nice to talk about these things.

>>12373308
thanks

Realized like 10k in produts but also 7k in losses

I guess I dont have to pay taxes since its 7k realized after the 3k deduction?

>>12373351
won't lie, i agree the 2-3% treasuries are attractive considering the past decade. that's obviously one of the core reasons equities have been beat up -- why take on those riskier positions when the risk-free rate is actually preserving (and in some cases even increasing) purchasing power.

i will say though that the capital markets theories accepted today (assuming perfect efficiency and no frictions) dictate a risk-return parity across all asset classes, e.g. given the risk taken on a 10y treasury, the return is commensurate with the risk of a growth stock, or a blue chip, or even crypto. in simpler terms, 1 unit of return for 1 unit of risk, across all markets and asset classes. if it were anything otherwise, there would be arbitrage opportunities abound, yet we know that true arbitrage (mispricing between identical assets) isn't a frequent or sustained phenomenon. true, bonds will preserve your purchasing power - but as you said, you'll miss out on the potential higher gains of equities. the win-win, as far as i'm concerned, isn't your particular portfolio, but your portfolio with your risk profile. they seem aligned, which is the best thing any investor can do imho.

do you always use a tripcode? i'll look for you down the line, relatively new to this board on "4channel". really a shame there's only a few true market/equity threads and the rest is cryptobabble.

>>12373438
If that was your only income for 2018, then you likely don't meet the minimum income to have to file a tax return

>>12373446
Based institutional fag

Does anyone else wake up early and the 1st thought is about the market? Shit is addicting.

Easiest to just throw most of your money into VTSAX and hold. Gives out small quarterly dividends, almost matches the S&P 500 with more diversity.

I won't bother with bonds for twenty years.

>>12373528
I have 3 things go through my head
1. I need to take a piss
2. I have a boner so should I fap or piss first
3. Oh yeah, stock market is open.

>>12373446
Well one of the things I'm betting on, ofc, is that the full risk of a recession hasn't been priced into equities yet. But only time will tell there.

I usually do use a tripcode, though not always in other threads. I mostly stick to this general since I find the digital currency speculation to be stupid, although I'll occasionally comment on discussion of inflation hedging and things like that. I also have a very large part of my portfolio in TIPS at the moment, mostly mutual fund but also some actual bonds on treasury direct. The mutual fund gives great dividends but I might sell soon since deflation is expected in a recession. Fortunately, I still have some time of not paying capital gains due to my grandmother holding money in my name with high dividend poor price performing stocks before selling and giving me the cash.

>>12373438
the $3,000 deduction only offsets ordinary income. if you don't generate ordinary income (e.g. wages, salary) then there's no deduction. basically you had $3K of capital gains. i know that if it's ordinary income you won't have to file a tax return, but i don't know if that's the case with capital gains. it's rare to generate that low of capital gains when you're not also generating ordinary income, so probably best to ask a CPA.

but you should check your math. 10K profit and 7K losses isn't 7K realized... even if you could apply the 3K reduction on ordinary income. it's 3K realized [3K realized gains = 10K realized capital gains - 7K realized capital losses]

>>12373351
I think it would be interesting to model the inversion as a buy signal instead of a sell signal.

OK, serious question. Why should I try to pay off my student loans before investing? Even if I just make minimum payments, it will all be gone in ten years. On the other hand, any money I put into my 401(k)/IRA will compound for 30+ years.

Paying off debt doesn't build equity. Instead of paying off my loans ASAP I might as well jusrsave for a down payment on a house.

>>12373584
How do you figure?

>>12373557
didn't understand the last sentence, but whatever. +1 on the TIPS. imo there's a good argument to be made that the risk-free rate should be considered TIPS instead of the 10y treasury, which is the most commonly used.

i would however deter you from mutual funds, the main reason being that they are tax disadvantaged compared to index funds. it's not worth getting into here, but with mutual funds you end up on the hook for other people's tax liabilities, whereas with index funds you're only on the hook for your own. i don't expect mutual funds to exist in the future for that reason, now that index funds exist. you could buy a mutual fund and immediately incur fees for taxable gains that you didn't participate in - stupid in today's age.

i don't want to get into dividend strategies right now because i already tried and hit the post limit. we'll save that for another time.

my main advice at this point would be that "time in the market outperforms timing the market", so to speak. you never know when the bottom hits. compounding over a long horizon, regardless of market upswings and downswings, will outperform trying to time the market. the statistically significant chance of you being able to time the market over time is very small.

thanks for the reasonable discourse. i hope future /smg/ threads can be of this nature. the constant TA and daytrading are just awful strategies for taxable individual investors and i'm glad you're not a part of it

>>12373606
If the loans aren't high interest then I would invest instead of paying them off. But 30+ years is for retirement. Saving for a house could leave you dependent on the market whereas paying off loans is guaranteeing you saving those extra interest amounts.

>>12373607
What if you only bought equities in the years after an inversion and stayed in bonds the rest of the time? Your methodology is an indirect way of selling the peak so conversely it would make sense that you could also use it to buy the dip.

>>12373606
obviously it depends on the terms, but i'll refer you to earlier posts: >>12373186 and the amended >>12373221

you likely have a negative net worth, and investing inherently requires a degree of risk. where it doesn't have risk, the returns are unlikely to exceed the rate on your debt.

so you're either maintaining debt (negative net worth) and taking on more risk, or reducing debt and making steps towards having a positive net worth, so you can then invest

signing off. goodnight folks.

>>12369625
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Schism

>>12372782

>have wife
>have wageslave job
>have nice 401k
>just started getting into trading
>wife doesn’t like it and is worried
>already lost $100 but put more money in and starting to feel a thirst for more

This was sobering anon thank you for the blog. I don’t want to become a JUST anon.

>>12373606
Don’t pay off your loans. The dudes around here take their portfolios for granted and forgot what it’s like to have zero liquidity. Cash is king, cash is power, and you never know when you might need, or have the opportunity, to use it.

>>12373528

I planned to buy some stocks today. Had a dream last night some of my stocks dropped like crazy and then I woke up. Fell asleep again and dreamed my stocks skyrocketed. Woke up and had to buy today to stop the anguish.

>>12373720
No need to risk anything if you have a wife. Load your 401k and play it safe. Fighting or worrying over financials doesn't help. Let the market carry you and swim with the current.

>>12373744

House anon here. Just be sure to pay off a chunk of the loans before applying for a mortgage.

>>12373744
this is different advice than investing. the choice was investing vs loan payoffs. sure you can liquidate a portfolio but you might have to in a down turn.
they should pay off the loan afternoon establishing enough liquidity in an emergency fund, not invest it

>>12373822
>>12373667
A twat who tries so hard with the thesaurus shouldn't be phone posting. Christ, the reddit language is cringe.

>>12373946
Honestly we should settle for anything that isn't tripfagging at this point

>>12373606
Debt is what (((they))) use to control you desu

New thread
>>12374217

>>12374217

>>12374217