/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12120229
Its known in economics that as time passes, the market will converge on the most efficient allocation. It would be truly crazy if tether gets to #1 only to prove that the USD is the true king.

>>12120294
What I want to know is why nobody will talk about this on /biz/ and usually not Twitter either

Can baghodlers just not handle the reality? Or do most people still just not understand what really happened? I want to know, someone please tell me.

>>12120409
It’s being beaten to death on r/buttcoin. I just look at it as anything below Tether is 100% shit.

>>12120429
Well yeah, but you can literally see the pumping now. Tether on CMC had a mcap of $1,857,030,393 like a few minutes ago. Now it's $1,852,652,469. They just pumped 5 million fake Tethers into the system to try to stop the selloff.

I can't be the only one who is smart enough to see this. I feel like the world has gone mad.

>>12120495
*Now it's $1,870,155,794
My bad. It had a jump of way over 5 mil.

>>12120495
Implying there isn’t really people trading with 5 mil kek how poor are you

>>12120548
You are clueless. The way they pump new Tether into the system is by placing large buy orders on Bitfinex. Then legit customers see it and follow like Lemmings, because they're all looking for the bottom. They usually seem to do this with about 5-20 million USDT at a time, but sometimes it's much more than that.

Maybe the market's problem is that most investors are just clueless about how the system really works

>>12120495
Maybe it's people selling their bags for Tether only to go back in later? That's what I did back at 5k and going to at least double my stack when it's time to go back in.

>>12120409

Because when you really get down to it no one on here or there truly understands the effects it has on the market over time. Or if they do they've chosen not to participate in the conversation. Because all I see is a group of people who, outside of drawing meme lines, don't have a solid grasp of the underlying economic principles that drive a market. Very few people in the world understand it to that level of granularity, and they're typically so engrossed in other markets that they don't really bother with crypto.

> inb4 they could make so much cash

Because these guys are not stupid it means that they understand you can't get blood from a stone. Which is to say that they are looking to make hundreds of billions in fiat, if they actually made that amount of money in crypto do you really think they'd be able to cash it out without crashing the market? I doubt it, and they realize that. Sure guys have made 10's and 100's of millions but that's tenths of a percent of what these guys are after. So they don't bother.

So anyways, anyone who says they understand this is a dunning-kruger faggot and you probably shouldn't listen to them.

this is incredibly bullish actually. All the money being dumped from Crypto is going into tether. Expect a lot of that to be divided back into the crypto game around Feb when Bakkt hits.

>>12120229
If bitcoin breaks below 3k. Then the market plummet to sub 200 if tether collapses.

>There are people on this board who still unironically use the phrase "Tether up"

They are in for a rude awakening.

>>12120409
I honestly think they dont care. Like it's some sort of unseeable worst-case-scenario that will never happen. Remember the 6k "floor" several months ago?

>>12120768
>this is incredibly bullish actually.
>All the money being dumped from Crypto is going into tether
>Expect a lot of that to be divided back into the crypto game around Feb when Bakkt hits.

>>12120733
Please save me from all these stupid people senpai

>>12120821

fucking rofl. And the first reply highlights my point exactly. At this point just use that mentality to your advantage. I just feel bad for the amount of people who are about to get absolutely fucked all because they refuse to entertain the thought that bitcoin could actually go to $0.

>>12120875
I don't think it will go to zero for decades, simply because of how valuable it once was and how much magical thinking goes on in investment, i.e. 'This was once $19,000, therefore, it may magically reach that number again!' Without any thought of how it actually got there. And that's the point I'm trying to make here: it got there through a combination of Tether manipulation and most investors being too dumb to realize it.

>>12120807
/biz/ is the intersection of Dunning Street and Kruger Street

>>12120875
>>12121035
once again, bullish as hell. Bearfags still push the meme that tether was manipulated somehow even though there is o (count zero) evidence to back it up.

>>12120768
this guy knows what's up. everyone ITT is a retard

>>12121070
Along with 'research', these have become the top buzzwords for shills on /biz/. Congratulations, you have no original thought.

>>12121056
>even though there is o (count zero) evidence to back it up
I thought you'd never ask! Oh boy, okay, here goes!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/professor-who-rang-vix-alarm-says-tether-used-to-boost-bitcoin
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/bitcoin-rigging-criminal-probe-is-said-to-focus-on-tie-to-tether
https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/the-tether-truth-machine-the-wheels-of-justice-turn-slowly-but-grind-exceedingly-finely-8e3bd72ad011
http://investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.com/2018/06/did-fractional-reserve-lending-of.html

Get started with that. There's loads more if you want more, all you have to do is ask.

There are 1 billion dollars retained by Bitfinex since October. If you look in Reddit you will see 700 people who have not received their money.

None of you dummies know how it even works

>>12120495
you dumb retard, the supply of tether stayed constant, the market cap increased because people bought it over a dollar

>>12121167
>the market cap increased because people bought it over a dollar
This shit is so good I am going to screencap it
oh man

>>12121110
Fiat withdrawals aren't closed, but they just don't go through. They are marked as completed but the customers do not receive the money. Bitfinex'ed has pointed out some of the fake accounts they use to try to astroturf about it, but if your money is on Bitfinex, you are completely fucked right now

>>12121208
your own screenshot has tether price at $1.01. It's now $1.00 so the mcap has gone down.

>>12121232
I am not going to be bothered explaining this to you when I've posted a bunch of links that do just that. If you only read one thing, read the 'investinginchinesestocks' one, it has links to the landmark study that Professor Griffin did for the University of Texas at Austin. If you still don't understand, it's beyond my power to help you.

>>12121265
there's nothing to understand, tether fud is almost 2 years old at this point. If it was fake it wouldn't survive, it was trading below $0.9 at one point.

Powerful interests hate bitfinex because it's literally the only exchange with fiat that also allows kycless crypto-only trades. Without bitfinex the entire system can be forced to implement kyc/aml for crypto itself by tightly regulating all other fiat exchanges.
You're a 'useful idiot' helping to enslave the world.

>>12121301
Oh. That makes more sense... you don't not understand, you're just a shill defending Tether's party line. Even most of /biz/'s goobering stinky linkies would at least have a brief skim through one or two of the links, but no, just call it old FUD, okay.

>You're a 'useful idiot' helping to enslave the world.

Such a shameless tactic. Crypto is a failed experiment, shill. The reason I invested in it in the first place was because I didn't want to be dependent on banks. All the scams in crypto, with Tether front and center, have destroyed crypto's integrity and shown how vulnerable it is to manipulation. Seeing internet shills denying reality about it publicly really doesn't help your case either.

>>12121342
>at least have a brief skim through one or two of the links
I read the report when it went out. You either didn't or are really fucking dumb to not see the obvious manipulation.

>>12120875
Senpai, help, they won't stop being dumb. The descendants of the Dunning tribe and the Kruger tribe have hybridized.

>>12120733
Well written and convincing FUD

>>12121107
Calm down Spencer, none of this is a proof of anything. I know you feel pumped and woke after reading some quasi detective tinfoil hat theories but that's all there is to it.

>>12120768
This.

>>12121549
>>12121577
>>12121607
>1 post by this ID
At least you guys know how to use a VPN.

>>12121638
no, you are just a cuck who either missed out entirely or got burned and tries to justify his failure. Show me proofs you cuck not some BS tinfoil hat articles. The burden of proof is on you

>>12121665
You can dismiss them as 'BS tinfoil hat' articles, but that doesn't make them any less true, and guess what?

It's not an argument, either. You wanted evidence, I gave you evidence. If you don't like the evidence, the burden of proof is now on you to find out what's wrong with the evidence. 'BS tinfoil hat' is not an argument, it's not a dissection of the evidence, it doesn't really state anything other than you just attacking its general credibility without providing a reason. This is the 'Tu Quoque' logical fallacy you're trying, by the way.

>>12121638
>he’s a samefag vpn user because hes not refreshing my thread every 1 minute
cringe lmao, fucking pseudo-intellectual

>>12121800
typical bitfinexe'd fanatic
0 proofs, 0 evidence, keep the fud going because I'm not ready to buy yet, need a few more weeks

>>12121842
>typical bitfinexe'd fanatic
I dont even like him, but he is actually spot on.
Accusations need to be disproven, not dismissed.

>>12120229
>The 2017 bubble was caused by Tether manipulation
The bubble was caused because because normies fomoed in hard. Nothing else.

>>12121857
there is no proofs of anything, bitfinexed is a loser who got shaken out super early then allegedly went short (don't know if that part is true) and begged bitfinex for a refund, bitfinex told him to fuck off and that's when he really went insane cooking up more conspiracy theories every single day for over a year, how is that not insanity.

Show me proofs of muh tether manipulation, I'll wait, but we all know none of you have shit, only some wild imagination articles written and inspired by a guy who should be in a mental hospital since last year

>>12121899
You have all the evidence you need here >>12121107

Obviously you won't address anything specific about the evidence, because you are a shill, I am guessing part of Bitfinex's PR team. Disinformation is your job, obviously. I say 'evidence' instead of 'proof' because Tether will not allow an accounting firm to do a proper audit. But the evidence all points in the direction you are being paid to steer people away from.

>>12121934
>bloomberg
Literal paid shill larping fudsters

https://beincrypto.com/be-aware-bloomberg-writers-compensated-for-market-moves/

>>12121899
>there is no proofs of anything
I need certainty, because I am suspicious.
And suspicion is more than enough to stay away from a market, that wants to have my money. I left in early December last year with good profit and wont be back, as long as Tether has not conducted a valid audit from the big 4.

You cannot trigger me with referring to Bitfinexed, as he is not relevant in this discussion. But his points are valid for anyone familiar with manipulative markets. This needs to be disproven, otherwise the "muh institutional monies" is a meme.

Nothing more, nothing else. If you still refer to Bitfinexed in this discussion, you are nothing more than a delusional shill.

>>12121934
you dumb fuck I told you to read the report
>Specifically, controlling for lagged volatility,
Bitfinex wallets send out Tethers (Panel A) and purchases Bitcoin (Panel B) when the lagged return
of Bitcoin is negative. But, there is no relationship when the previous Bitcoin return is positive.
Consistent with Hypothesis H2A, the results are sizable and statistically significant

Do you know what that describes? Tether arbitrage. During dips usdt went above $1 on other exchange as people flocked to usdt. Arbitrageurs were withdrawing tether from bitfinex to arbitrage the high price out.
How? By buying crypto.

That's literally it. That's the whole fucking thesis of this retarded report. It's a hit job that only works on idiots.

>>12121958
>obscure site with an article with 1.1k views
Yes, that's far more credible than Bloomberg. I have no reason to suspect they could be framing a narrative. Thank you for your credible contribution to this discussion fren.

see also:
https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/26/more-than-half-of-crypto-news-sites-are-pay-for-play/

>>12121934
>Disinformation is your job, obviously. I say 'evidence' instead of 'proof' because Tether will not allow an accounting firm to do a proper audit.
Ok so at least you admit all you have is speculation and 0 proofs. I'm happy we got that out of the way
Of course bitfinex won't be fully transparent especially with the general public, you have no idea how businesses work, they have 0 reasons to reveal their banking details to anyone besides those that they absolutely have to.

>>12121960
lol stay on the sidelines then but don't bitch and cry about muh manipulation because that's only some mental dude's imagination and you cannot expect one of the biggest exchanges to dance for you because you feel scared by some lunatic.

>>12122000
>lol stay on the sidelines then
Read >>12121960 again.
Hint: "left in early December last year with good profit" might give you a hint on whose bags you bought back then and "hodl" all the way down.

Switching between playfield and sideline is what makes you money in crypto, my son.

>>12122000
You can keep ignoring the evidence, I can't force you to disprove it, but until you do, it's worth more than anything you can say.

>Of course bitfinex won't be fully transparent especially with the general public, you have no idea how businesses work, they have 0 reasons to reveal their banking details to anyone besides those that they absolutely have to.

This might be the dumbest thing you've said yet.

>>12122031
keep your projections and "profits" for yourself
>my son.
cringe/10

>>12122036
dude I don't even have the time to plow through your stupid evidence, Ive read it too many times in the past if you want post your best shots in bullet points or don't even bother. If I want to read sc-fi I know where to go

>>12121979
Don't bother, you're wasting your time on brainlets too stupid to understand basic market mechanics. They'll be left behind, still waiting for the tether collapse even as BTC passes 20k. Everyone with semi-functioning brain is accumulating right now as the BTC bounced twice off the 200 weekly MA.

>>12120229
You're a fucking NPC normie faggot if you think the 2017 pump stemmed from fucking Tether of all things

>>12120229
>>12120294
>>12120409
>>12120495
>>12120507
>>12120597
>>12120807
>>12121107
>>12121638

>muh tether manipulated the market
>hurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
>let's ignore the fact that people were making hundreds of millions of inflated dollars from Ethereum ICO's en masse
>let's ignore the fact that people making 100x on ICOs and then dumping that into BTC and double inflating market cap is primarily what fucked everything
>muh tether pumped BTC!
>hurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

you literal fucking brainlet

>>12122083
>>12122088
>>12122190
Still waiting for you to refute the evidence. Are you guys getting paid in cash or crypto? Bitcoin?

>>12122236
shut the fuck up you goalpost moving faggot

i never said tether and bitfinex didn't have a part to play, they've definitely done some shady shit

but to account for the ENTIRE pump last year to tether makes you a gigantic faggot of a brainlet when the ico bubble is in you and everyone else's face

>>12122236
I already refuted it >>12121979

>>12122283
>goalpost moving
Haha. I don't think you understand what that one means. I see you looked up logical fallacies... perhaps for the first time? They're fun, I know, but you have to actually understand how to use them correctly. They are not just a 'comeback in a can' you can pop open whenever you're losing an argument.

I didn't say Tether was the sole reason for the pump, and understanding the reason why means understanding how Ponzi schemes work: if enough real investment (i.e. real money) didn't come in, then people wouldn't have been able to make withdrawals, only deposits. Just like what's happening now at your boss' exchange, Bitfinex. Now that the supply of REAL money has dried up, there's no liquidity. There were billions of dollars of real money a day flooding into crypto at certain points last year and this year, but that's gone now, and this is why at most Tether pumps can only jack up the BTC price a few hundred dollars at the most now.

>>12122426
shut the fuck up you goalpost moving faggot

Goldman Sachs introduced USDC

Banks don't like competition that's why you get Tether FUD. However in case it gets a bad audit or whatever, it's all going to be sold for crypto creating the most epic bullpump you will ever see this lifetime.

>>12122367
Copypasting the most complicated sounding paragraph you could find without references is not a refutation. There are other exchanges that are in on the Tether game, obviously, like Kraken and Huobi... I don't think you can call that 'arbitrage', especially considering the premiums.

>>12122480
<3

>>12122508
literal fucking brainlet thinks tether was the cause of the 2017 pump when ico's were doing more than 100x and pumping both ETH and BTC to ATH's

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>12120597
You are clueless the entire market cap of bitcoin is nothing to some people fuckkng broke idiot. Just because you can conceive some one having 20 millions dollars to throw away doesn’t mean some people don’t have 20 million dollars to throw away. The problem is the money is dirty not fake. Bitcoin = dark web. How would cash in all that bitcoin you made from selling drugs? The entire market is propped up by drug cartels. New ATH will be whenever the cartels decide they need to cash out.

>>12122508
>Copypasting the most complicated sounding paragraph you could find without references is not a refutation

so you can't even understand the report? ok that explains it I guess

>>12122527
>>12122517
You can try to frame it, but smart people can see through it. And you couldn't be more wrong, I am happy to quote from it:

The paper is here: Is Bitcoin Really Un-Tethered? (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066))
Abstract

This paper investigates whether Tether, a digital currency pegged to U.S. dollars, influences Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the recent boom. Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, we find that purchases with Tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies. The flow clusters below round prices, induces asymmetric autocorrelations in Bitcoin, and suggests incomplete Tether backing before month-ends. These patterns cannot be explained by investor demand proxies but are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis where Tether is used to provide price support and manipulate cryptocurrency prices.

>>12122649
holy shit the fact that you are unable to see that ethereum is the biggest reason for inflated prices makes you such a fucking faggot i don't even know what to say

you keep talking your dumb shit when the ico bubble is right in your fucking face you dumb cunt

btc didn't start going parabolic until ico's did

>>12122649
>You can try to frame it, but smart people can see through it.

What? I quoted the central 'proof' from the report and explained why it doesn't prove shit. You just ignored it.

>The paper is here

I already quoted from it, why are you linking it?

>>12122741
Correlation is not causation.

>>12122752
References. I don't care about convincing you or anyone else on your team, I am posting for the public good, I care about them understanding it. And I didn't ignore your argument, I replied >>12122508. I don't think that refers to arbitrage, and the authors' own words contradict you, as in:

>These patterns cannot be explained by investor demand proxies but are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis where Tether is used to provide price support and manipulate cryptocurrency prices.

Griffin and Shams wrote that, not me.

>>12122828
holy fucking shit you literal imbred

>correlation is not causation
>LOL GUYS TETHER SINGLEHANDEDLY CAUSED THE PUMP

shut the fuck up you brainlet faggot

>>12120229
all the shitcoin exchanges were buying large amounts of tether. bitfinex was not using it to pump bitcoin

>>12122872
You need to expand your vocabulary, you type like a 15 year old League of Legends player. I have a great idea. Start with >>12121107
It will be great practice for you!

>>12122887
shut the fuck up neckbeard brainlet you literally have no idea what you are talking about and are speaking with a superiority complex

take two seconds and look what ethereum did to the market and keep crying about tether you blind fucking faggot

>>12122907
feels good, man

>>12122828
>These patterns cannot be explained by investor demand proxies but are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis where Tether is used to provide price support and manipulate cryptocurrency prices.
You're citing the abstract that uses what I quoted as proof for itself.
They deal with arbitrage here:
>Another argument might be that the price difference between Tether and USD exchanges is driving the flow. If Bitcoin prices increase on USD exchanges but not on Tether exchanges, an investor may exploit the opportunity by selling Bitcoin on USD exchanges, converting the USD to Tether, moving Tether to Tether exchanges, and purchasing Bitcoin. To test this possibility, two lagged return measures are constructed: first, a 3-hour lagged Bitcoin return averaged across all major exchanges, and second, a 3-hour lagged difference in return between Tether exchanges and USD exchanges. The average return captures the effect of Bitcoin price changes and the difference captures the spread leading to the arbitrage opportunity. We then estimate a regression of Tether and Bitcoin flows on the spread and the average returns. Panel C of Table VII shows that the flows are not sensitive to the spread, but highly sensitive to variations in the average Bitcoin returns. Again, these results support that the spread between Tether and USD exchanges is not the driver of the Tether and Bitcoin flow

Why "not sensitive to the spread"? Because as long as arbitrage works, spread is tight. Bitcoin drops and rate of selling to usdt increases, a slight premium arises. New usdt is withdrawn from bitfinex by arbitrageurs.
What happens when they run out of available money? Spread increased. Can usdt withdrawals increase? No, because arbitrageurs are already maxed. That's why there's no correlation - peak spreads don't cause increased issuance.

>>12120229
People who think Tether is a scam or manipulating the market after they were cleared by the fucking SEC are absolute morons.

>>12120229
Having stablecoins in crypto undermines the entire system of crypto.

All stablecoins must die or else it acts as fractional reserve banking, once regulators start to stop shitcompanys from being able to prop up stablecoins without 1:1 cash backing(because lets be serious, its not possible for them to acquire cash as fast as crypto moves) the market is going to be no better then current fiat system.

>>12123073
>All stablecoins must die
they aren't going to, but all pure currency coins are going to die.

>>12123036
>You're citing the abstract that uses what I quoted as proof for itself.
They wouldn't have said what they did in the abstract if they reached the conclusion you are framing them as reaching. What you are saying about arbitrage is contradicted by their words,
>These patterns cannot be explained by investor demand proxies but are most consistent with the supply-based hypothesis where Tether is used to provide price support and manipulate cryptocurrency prices.

One of you is wrong here. It's either Griffin and Shams, or you, Bitfinex Shill #XX. I don't think Professor Griffin fundamentally got the abstract on his own paper wrong.

>>12123129
>One of you is wrong here. It's either Griffin and Shams, or you, Bitfinex Shill #XX.
argument from authority, you're unable to discuss the report itself

I miss the early 2018 Tether threads

>>12123162
>posts extracts from the report
>'you're unable to discuss the report itself'
lol, okay.

Also:
>argument from authority
>>12122426
>I see you looked up logical fallacies... perhaps for the first time? They're fun, I know, but you have to actually understand how to use them correctly. They are not just a 'comeback in a can' you can pop open whenever you're losing an argument.

>>12123115

You have it backwards. Currency coins could be useful to crypto as long as minerfee stays lower then whatever your current tax rate is when making a purchase.

Stablecoins are false because the fiat currency they are backed by is printed with nothing other then the accepted fact we give it value. Therefore i can print as much as i need, and move it to a stablecoin and create more of said coin.(which is why BTC works the way it does, it competely avoids this issue)

The only GOOD currency coins do not even exist yet, besides LTC (because it is the testnet for bitcoin, therefore it gives it SOME value, not much. But more then a stablecoin)

With that said ^
Good fast easy cheap currency coins will be the future of crypto, BUT they will be backed by how much BTC the issuer of said coins have- which can be adjusted in real time VIA oracles. So if you use coin A and i use coin B it does not matter, since its valuen is from BTC total cost at current time and the swap is made.

These coins will not exist until BTC is beyond its current curve and people understand WHY it actually does merit some sense of value.

Crytpo as a currecny is funny, because it is a LATE stage of currency but could im fact happen overnight if a agreement (IS02022 standard is globallt agreed upon)

>BTC will always be king, do not forget this.

>>12123185
>posts extracts from the report
nigger you quoted the abstract, that's not 'extract from the report' that's the tl;dr of the conclusion

>>12123210
Wow. You don't even know what an extract is.

I am speechless.

>>12123073
But anyway, yeah, this guy gets it.

I am glad there are people out there who know.

bears don't want to admit that tether is literally the crypto-fed and we're all going to be saved by quantitative easing 2.0