/biz/ - Business & Finance

>technical analysis
bluepilled cringe

Fuck yeah spread it

It's fucking over until 2030

>>12092081
what am I looking at here ?

>>12092115
Fud

>>12092115
late adopters upset that they aren't ever going to get rich from crypto.

>>12092120
>>12092135
can I have a non-meme answer

>>12092115
its a forecast for next year based on generalized additive regressive models created and used by facebook data scientists

>>12092142
thats unironically the gist of it. people thinking bitcoin's growth is going to continue at the same or logarithmically the same rate as before, which everybody knows is impossible.

>>12092081

>>12092150
AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

>>12092115

autism

>>12092150
its really embarrassing how bad technical analysis actually is.

>>12092142
it appears to be a graph of the historical btc/usd price compared to somebody's (presumably OP's) prediction of how the BTC price should be (presumably based on """TA""")

>>12092150
haha. Can I see the code that leads to a 0 dollar 2019 prediction?

>>12092150
That website is absolute hogwash. According to this website, all cryptocurrencies are heading straight to 0.

>>12092142
>>12092161
>>12092159
>>12092156
>>12092100

I already posted what this is. Scroll up

>its a forecast for next year based on generalized additive regressive models created and used by facebook data scientists

>>12092175
they are though

>>12092177
>dubs confirm
so is this good or bad for crypto?

>>12092169

>>12092200
your dubs double confirm. The forecast says that we will land somewhere between 5k and 23k at EOY 2019. It is not the 100k or million delusional people are looking for. However it is higher than todays prices..

>>12092222
nevermind I can't argue with quads

>>12092222
>quads confirm what i've been saying all year
kek
>>12092225
fuck yeah. thanks anon

>>12092177
and why would you put any stock in it?

firstly, the range it predicts appears to be "somewhere between $4,800 and $22,000 by 2020"

secondly their prediction line has not really followed the btc price at all in the entire model

lastly the data facebook is crunching (demographics for advertisers) is a lot more predictable than shitcoin gambling

>>12092228
that's ETH, it's a shitcoin. King Daddy will be fine

>>12092225
If it hits 23k in 12 months the normies will start to lap it up and maybe we can moon the year after

2020 moon race

Is TA a self fulfilling prophecy?

>>12092271
some kinds of technical analysis can be, but not this kind. this is just people not understanding the math theyre using to make pretty graphs.

>>12092271
TA is a complete nonsense. The market is random

>>12092081
Inb4 4 years to next bull

>>12092536
brb, going to run the simulations for up to 2023..

>>12092522
this is what more people need to understand. TA can help, but crypto is entirely speculative so the markets do whatever they feel like most of the time. And most of the time what the market wants is just code for what whales want.

>>12092239
are you retarded? he posted it to show how wrong it is. look at the fucking price it's already 20 sigmas outside their 95% confident region. you idiot

>>12092147
>bragging about a model without showing how it does on a cross-validation set

>>12092183
>babby's first boom/bust cycle

>>12092593
>Optimization terminated normally:
>Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

>>12092106
yup, maybe 2024 (after great recession of 2019)

>>12092081
>Predicts negative prices for some of the times in the training data
Dude, even brain-dead models like linear regression or Monte-Carlo simulations would get you better results than whatever the fuck you're doing. At least they predict valid prices at all timesteps.

>>12092632
that's just drawn scaled up to see fluctuations.

>>12092647
Really? Your axis doesn't indicate that. It is also weird that you'd do that to the predicted prices but not the actual prices. It genuinely looks like your model returned a lot of negative prices in the early timeframes. >>12092617 seems to confirm that it is capable of returning negative values, which is pretty fucking dumb. If your goal was to accentuate predicted price changes in the early timesteps you would have been better off using a log scale.

>>12092617
This does nothing to address the criticism in the post you were replying to. Try training it on a subset of the historical data and seeing how it does on the rest. Then compare how well it did on that second dataset to something like Monte-Carlo simulations to see if your model is actually returning anything useful. Ideally, you would perform this sort of testing with a variety of currencies and timeframes to see if your result from the first test was just a fluke.

>>12092147
From what I can see in the first graph you posted, it looks like one of the models learned that "BitcOiN ALwAYS GOes uP" and the others just oscillate.

>>12092115
A model done with the prophet library facebook?

>according to our data scientists, the price is either going to go up or the price is going to go down

>>12092081
Crypto is even better than a Ponzi scheme.
Usually when you take the money and run, the Ponzi Scheme is done and over.
With Crypto, you can just make up new "co(i)ns and people come back thinking it's THEIR turn to rake in the big money. It's a never-ending cycle of pump-and-dump grift.
Anyone who hasn't cashed out months ago is so terminally stupid that they genuinely deserve to be taken for everything.

>>12093063
why is why alts will never succeed long term, because the only people that care about them are late adopters, and as soon as a new hot alt comes out, every late adopter jumps to that one, leaving idiots behind like those bagholding chainlink.

>linear charts