/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12026899
maybe he just wants to run a business without memeing

do you realize all the pies amazon has its fingers in? he's hardly sitting back and relaxing. he just got done extorting every city in the country for 100s of millions in tax breaks. this nigga hustlin

>>12026899
amazon is working at a loss
it is running the losses from the stock appreciation

you know what happens when the music stops right

>>12027075
>being this retarded

>>12027075
Amazon operating on losses is exactly what will keep the stock price skyhigh

>>12027275
it is the gaining market share, until it tops off retard

>>12026899
You remember Bob Page from Deus Ex? Jeff Bezos has the same endgame.

>>12027250
It's actually true from a business perspective. Amazon is at a make-or-break point right now. They either manage to grab a large % of the market and start making a profit based upon monopolistic pricing models. Or they fail to reach that marketshare and the stock price plummets before the assets are being sold off and bankruptcy declared.

It's a part of how business is done right now. You try to grow your company on a loss until you reach a certain marketshare to bank on your monopolistic corner of the industry. Investors bank on this future profit if the company is successful and the rise in share price is indicative of how much chance for success the company has.

However there is a problem with this. This isn't the first time in history we've tried to do this method of setting up businesses. It has happened a handful of times throughout history.

The first was during the Dutch Empire golden age when the first stock market in the world was founded in Amsterdam. The companies founded would run a loss on investor money and would seize foreign lands as colonies and then reap future profits when spices were brought back for sale in Europe.

This system collapsed almost a century later when the expected profits were lower than the amount invested because everyone just went to re-invest their profits into these companies. Which meant the share price went higher than the profit could justify and it collapsed. Ending the golden age of the Dutch Empire.

Then just a century after that the same thing happened with the British Empire. Exactly the same thing. Investors invested into companies colonizing for slavery and spice profits. The share appreciation went higher than the profit could justify and it crashed. Starting the decline of the British Empire which led to them taxing their colonies more such as the colonies in the US that directly led to the United States revolution against Britain and their entire empire failing.

(1/2)

>>12027380
Last time this happened was in the 1920s. Regulations (or lack thereof in some cases) made it easier for people in the US and some European countries to invest and buy stocks of companies. These companies didn't run profitable businesses (yet) but had the promise of a big return once they reached a big % of their marketshare. Especially within real estate, retail and transportation (remember this) where the promises big and most of the investment poured into.

In the 1930s the valuation of the stocks had climbed too high to justify the profits these companies actually could make so the entire stock market crashed and it resulted in the worst global economic crisis the world has ever experienced.

Now in 2018 we have unprofitable companies being the biggest on the planet trying to reach a certain % of the market before being able to generate profit all while their valuation keeps growing. What sectors are these companies in? Retail (Amazon) and transportation (Tesla). Also a boom in real estate and rising housing prices despite most high-cost houses being empty. Seems very reminiscent doesn't it?

Now I'm not saying there will be a crash or anything. Maybe the high valuation IS actually justified by their future profit this time. However if you actually know about economics and especially the history of economics and business strategies on the macro level you'd know that it's a bad fucking situation these companies and their investors find themselves in.

>>12027386
>Last time this happened was in the 1920s.
The last time this happened was BitCoin at $20,000.

>>12027386
So what's the solution? Breaking up the massive corporations into smaller independent companies?

>>12027402
except that BTC is limited in supply and does not rot away
I hope you buy now.

>>12027380
>>12027386
Thank you informative anon. Please take those adorable dogs in an act of reciprocity

What's the most profitable (in the proper sense) company right now?

>>12027462
unironically Goldmoney

>>12027416
No. The solution is to invest based on established profitability not on the promise of future profitability.

>>12027462
Honestly it's actually oil companies right now. Because they still make a lot of profit but their valuation is underappreciated because people think oil is dying.

They are correct that oil is dying but they are making the opposite mistake. They are ignoring current profit for fear of future loss. Just like people are investing into Tesla and Amazon ignoring current loss for future profit.

Most of my portfolio has been in Oil companies that at one point gave a div/yield of 13% when oil prices hit ~$28 a barrel. and the stock price was at the lowest as well. Very good return on investment and their div/yield are still good right now.

Oil is not going to die in the next couple of decades so you can hold them and maybe sell them in 2040.

ALWAYS buy based on the current and short-term profit of a company. Especially buy it if people feel like the industry is aging/dying while still having massive profitability. That's how you get the best returns.

For example people have been saying coal has been dying ever since the late 1930s when oil became the standard. They were right, coal was inevitably going to die. Yet coal company stock provided higher profitability than most oil stocks up to the early 2000s 70 years after big investors claimed oil to be the future.

Similar thing with oil now. Lower valuation due to people realizing it's not the future + lots of infrastructure and existing profit means you will make bank.

NEVER invest in the future, let other investors do that for you. You just invest into established companies that people don't appreciate. I'll buy computer and internet stock in the 2050s when people think virtual reality or whatever is new at that point will replace it.

>>12027547
>>12027386
>>12027380
How do I develop this level of insight myself bro? any books?

>>12027547
>NEVER invest in the future
We are investing in bitcoin only for this purpose, we believe it is the future. So what are you doing here then?

>>12027796
Pure unadulterated autism. I'm also a 30yo boomer and I spend most of my youth reading charts.

Honestly use CIA Factbook, World Economics Forum, World Bank, IMF data to find out about economies of countries. Then start to look at the actual industries these companies have and their revenue and profit margin.

Then read the actual history of the country. Usually as simple as reading 10-20 wikipedia article on that country especially its economic history, demographics, labor laws and resources the country have.

Lastly look at stocks and their div/yield which is displayed on google. If a stock doesn't pay dividend then don't even bother with it.

Invest in stocks that have a div/yield of above 7% and are highly profitable but have a trend of declining stock price. This is usually oil companies and older car companies right now.

I also found a really interesting stock in the US for example. Big haircutting businesses. They make great revenue and have a growing profit margin yet their stock prices get lower because people see it as "old retail" despite it not having any negatives that old retail is having. Hair industry is not in danger of being replaced by an online alternative so it's save to invest.

Hope that helps you a bit. But yeah the autistic reading is the most important part.

>>12027860
I'm an oldfag from /biz/ before it became about crypto. Even bought a whole bitcoin for under $100 just as a gamble to see what would happen. Honestly the people that are still sticking around now will most likely graduate to stocks and proper investing in the future eventually anyway.

>>12027881
haha thanks

>>12027881
Oldfag, what do you think about the upcoming recession? Will it be "just" a recession or will it be a global collapse as some people say, or something in between?

As far as my brainlet brain can understand, central banks migitate recessions by stimulating the economy by lowering interest rates and quantative easing. But the ECB, Swiss, Sweden etc central banks all have zero % or even negative interest rates, doesn't that mean that Europe (and the rest of the west as a result) is basically fucked once the next recession comes?

>>12028086
Curious about this as well.

>>12027881
I would read your blog anon

>>12028086
The "upcoming recession" has actually been going on for a year already. It just didn't hit the west yet.

This crisis is actually unique as it's a "currency crisis". Basically what happened is that the ECB and feds lowered their interest rates after 2008 to mitigate the crisis like you said. However it also meant that third world countries could suddenly take a lot of USD and EUR debt.

So investors gave loans to third world countries in USD and EUR and expected to be paid back in USD and EUR as well. However their own currencies dropped due to various reasons too long and diverse to list. But they had to pay the debt back in USD and EUR so they had to exchange their own currencies for EUR/USD which meant their own currencies got an even lower evaluation and EUR/USD rising in value.

This happened first in Turkey but soon spread to Argentine,Brazil,South Africa,Indonesia,Philippines,Thailand,Iran,Vietnam,China, with India, Russia and Mexico also being at risk of being hit.

So now investors speculated that EUR/USD would rise in value while third world countries would go even lower. So due to this speculation they crashed even harder while EUR and USD get more valuable.

Now comes the kicker. Because the third world countries currencies became less valuable they could buy fewer western made products so western exports dropped and profitability of western companies dropped due to lower revenue from the third world. At the same time wages in the third world dropped due to their salary amount being worth fewer USD in their local currency. This will probably mean more outsourcing to these countries resulting in a higher unemployment in the west and thus higher government spending and lower tax revenue.

This coming crisis is honestly just a continuation of 2008, but mostly only affecting the third world this time (which was mostly unscathed in 2008). The west is going to stay relatively safe and only experience a minor recession.

>>12027881
Do you have any literature you would recommend for an economic major?

>>12027061
>Be richest man ever
>I need to not pay taxes
No wonder everyone from Trump to Bernie hate him.

>>12028207
Cool, thanks.

>>12028207
The west can only get out of the "minor recession" by eventually printing more money. I don't see how that can be healthy with the amount of money that has already been printed in 2008. I suspect during this crisis third world countries will flee to cryptocurrencies and the crisis in 2027 will eventually be hyperinflation of the USD/EUR

>>12027547
What do you think about Yangarra Resources (YGR) on the TSX?

>>12027998
>haha thanks

Sounds like you got the autism covered fren

>>12027380
>>12027386
this is a good post

>>12027075
>>12027285
This
Fuckiiing dumb people literal brainlet tier people who think "durrrrrrrrrrrrrr hrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
he
is
wealth man
he hab welf
derefore
he can just to buyh it
hebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbuyatitXD

absoltue fucking idiots
HE DOES NOT HAVE HIS NET WORTH IN LIQUID CAPITAL SITTING IN A CHECKING ACCOUNT

>>12028451
him referring to his interest as autism was funny and he replied so I thanked him

Hows that autistic?

>>12028207
Best written and logically consistent posting I've seen in a loooong time.

>>12028402
This crisis is already been going on for almost a year now. What happened is that a lot of western assets were bought including stocks and real estate. They didn't flee towards cryptocurrency as it has been crashing for almosty a year now.

Also if the recession hits the west in 2019 then statistically the crisis will hit 2027 true. But there is no reason to think it will be hyperinflationary. Instead expect deflation to be a bigger problem. I base this on the only data point we actually have in history the 1990s Japan.

Japan has been increasing the money supply (M1 AND M2) since the 1990s rapidly and lowered interest rates to 0 for almost 3 decades now. Yet they still experience a deflationary crisis. It's because their market (and this demand) is shrinking while production cost keeps getting lower due to technological increase, which inherently leads to deflation (which is a bad thing).

In the west we're starting to see a demographic shift was the babyboomers are starting to retire. This means there will be a shrink in consumption demand while production cost keeps dropping resulting in deflationary problems.

I'd bet on 2027 crisis to be deflationary as opposed to inflationary. Inflation is indicative of a growing economy/demands outpacing supply/production cost rising due to wage increases (such as during war with shortage of manpower).

None of this is very likely for the west.

>>12028472
>he can just to buyh it
Name three things that can be bought that Bezos couldn't buy if he decided he wanted them.

>>12028587
Cryptocurrencies will be used to redistribute wealth and create an ecosystem which is self-sustaining and not based on perpetual debt. Loans will be issued directly from lender to borrower and everything will be based on credit governed by AI

>>12026899
He's got some top secret shit going on in the desert in New Mexico. Brother in law is a concrete contractor. Had to sign about 15 different non-disclosures before beginning work on Bezos' site out there. I pressed him for info but his kept saying he can't tell me but that it's some scary shit.

>>12028587
>I base this on the only data point we actually have in history the 1990s Japan.
Good way to look at the the problem. I had Japan's economic history on my to-do list but I am too busy with school and learning to trade forex

Have you had any mentors? Who are your role models and where can I find wisdom similar to yours?

>>12028719
Nothing prevents a fractional reserve system to happen with cryptos. And even worse, there won't be any limits to the multiplication of funds due to lack of regulatory oversight.

>>12028446
I can't speak specifically about Yangarra Resources. But they list themselves as a "Junior Oil and Gas company" which could be a red flag.

However it's very smart to invest in Canadian resource extraction in general as every 0.1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature means the Canadian economy grows 10% and has easier and cheaper access to resources which directly translate into the profits of these companies. However look at more established players and their div/yield. I'm not familiar with this specific company and a proper analysis would take a lot of hours.

>>12027061
This.

Amazon does:
- Online retail
- Web services
- Home services
- Logistics
- Streaming
- Movie / TV productions
- Restaurant delivery
- Food & Meal kits // Amazon Go // Whole Foods
- Fashion

Just to name a few. I know Bezos isn't personally involved in all of these, but do you really thing he has time to think about catgirls?

>>12028800
I don't tend to read actual books as they tend to be very biased and usually written to tell a tale to make for easier reading.

I think it's important to actually KNOW what an economy is. That sounds simple but most people don't even truly know what economy means. It has nothing to do with money, trust, or even resources. It has to do with what is useful and the difference within that usability.

To give you an example. Imagine a prehistoric world before agriculture was invented. A woman is very good at making stone tipped wooden spears while some other dude is great at making baskets.

The woman is not good at physical activity like hunting and the guy would waste his time picking berries while he could have go hunting for more instead.

So when they trade their spear for the basket the actual value of this "economy" increases. Why? Because the spear has more value to the man than to the woman and the basket has more value to the woman than to the man.

There was no increase in resources from before and after this trade, there was no trust involved, Money didn't even exist and yet there was economic growth. THIS is what the fundementals of economics is. Now in the advanced world resources have value because we make products and services with them that people want. So you only need to look at who controls the important resources that make the goods and services people want and how you can get a piece of that. Investing in the future means investing in the possibility that people will want those things something that isn't actually adding "value" to the economy right now. While investing in resources that are getting used right now (such as oil or traditional cars) DO add "value" to the economy right now like the spear and basket. You can get a piece of that metaphysical "value" by buying the stock and getting their dividends.

About my mentor. It would have to absolutely be Von Neumann and his "Game Theory" about economics.

>>12028472
Brah, big stocks are pretty liquid, just hit sell. He's been cashing out at least $1B/year for his space rockets and could do more no problem. Ironic retardation is a bad look when you're the retarded one.

>>12028719
Inflation is a feature, not a bug.

Inflation encourages consumption which encourages growth which encourages innovation. You could say that inflation is one of the pillars driving humanity forward.

Debt is a huge part of this inflation cycle. For example if you have a company that wants to start and try to add value to the economy through its services then the bank issues this debt to the company so that they have the capital to start doing business.

Then the money supply increases. However the company might actually add value to society (more than with what the money supply has increased) resulting in an increase in quality of life. People will know that their money will on average degrade in value between 2-3% a year. This encourages them to either invest their money to guard against this decay of value. Or to consume the services and goods they want as soon as possible. Contributing to growth of the economy.

What would happen with a deflationary currency is that it would get hoarded and slow down consumption which would result in a deflationary cycle which would grind the economy to a halt.

If a cryptocurrency is going to succeed in the future it would need to have inflation and real traditional issued debt as main features. Otherwise it'd be less efficient than current monetary forms of exchange.

I hope you understood what I'm saying. Here's a link.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflationary-spiral.asp

>>12028914
I hope genetic modification is at least somewhere on the list of future ventures.

>>12029080
Wow thanks for the info!

>>12027881
>bitches don’t know about my hair cutting robots

>>12028207
great post

>>12026899
like 70% of the web is built on AWS. he already has a near monopoly on the most powerful industry in the world.

>>12026899
Endgame is the same as every other richfag.
> Live forever
> Leave this planet before it becomes a nigger/pajeet colony.
With human IQ dropping rapidly due to biological reasons, the next generations might be trapped here forever.

>>12028207

too bad this is complete fiction

>>12028207
You forgot one thing.
Western prices inflate greatly, while companies will utilise offshore wagecucks for the fraction of cost.
Pajeet will live like a king off the equivalent of your minimum wage, while Western jobs (with very few exceptions) will be reduced to wagecage warehouse services just to distribute cosumer goods to the gibs receivers.

>>12028587
Nigger seriously start a blog. Would read 100k.

>>12028207
you forgot the most notable country that was effected by this; Venezuela. Venezuela's entire economy was propped up by a falling US interest rate, they were paying back less in debt than they could take out each year. the second this stopped their economy crashed and their currency became worthless.

>>12028587
>>12029080
you seem to be extremely confident in the West. Over confident. What happens when the entire 2nd/3rd world defaults on their EUR/USD debt? What happens when governments controlling 85% of the world population declare bankruptcy? Do you really believe they are going to be complicit in an economy that inherently fucked them over?

>>12028194
>>12029982
Fuck that shit would take all my time and distract me from my regular shitposting on 4chan.
>>12029810
It's really not. In fact this isn't even unorthodox thought just google it. Or even better yet look at their valuation against the USD and EUR without even having to read a single word, pure numbers telling the tale for you.

>>12029869
Western prices inflate exactly between 2-3%, as designed some people would argue it's actually below that.

The reason pajeet can live of the equivalent of a first world minimum wage is because their production costs are low because they hire pajeets that work for almost nothing. If more companies outsource to pajeet, then suddenly pajeet becomes more expensive to hire and now pajeet doesn't live so cheaply anymore so he wants to be paid even more. This happened to China as well. Rent in Shenzhen and Shanghai are about the same as in California or San Fran. Wages are about the same as well.

Outsourcing is only logical as long as it cuts production costs. More technology means the benefit of outsourcing goes down over time. While at the same time wages going up in those places make outsourcing seem less and less lucrative over time.

I have no idea what you mean with that last sentence but if you think consumer power of the west will keep dropping then you're wrong. Production cost drop mostly because of increases in efficiency due to technology this doesn't get changed. A drop in consumers means a drop in demand while the facilities will stay the same meaning the first world will see an decrease in cost of living as baby boomers retire.

>>12029987
>>12029987
Venezuela would have collapsed anyway. The low interest rates just extended their economic collapse so I don't really see it as relevant to this since their economic background was fucked anyway and not caused by the low interest rates of the ECB and feds.

It's not that I'm confident in the west. It's that the west will receive the least damage during the current crisis (that most people in the west don't even realize is occurring right now because it impacts us so little). Mostly because it benefits these currencies. There is also a low chance of a default happening from most of the hit countries as they still have long-term economic growth and defaulting would bring them more problem than good. It's more likely they will have some domestic tension maybe some hyperinflation in some countries and some restructuring of their economy. But they aren't going to default unless absolutely necessary. Venezuela is going to default though.

>>12030353
Fair enough about Venezuela, but I personally believe they would have bounced back much better had we not soften the fall. Instead of revolution we got impotent rage.

I think you're still ignoring a very real possibility that a significant portion of the world tells the West to fuck off entirely and decide no debts are being paid. The world will come to an absolute halt, effectively flipping the table. The West has so much to lose and such a high standard of living to maintain for its citizens that any serious collapse would cause almost immediate civil unrest (already prominent in racial and political tensions, slight economic difficulties caused the current revolts in France), while places like Russia and China have been teaching absolute loyalty to the state and protecting genetic hegemony. Russia-Iran-China don't even need to flip the table entirely, they just need to pound on in hard enough to knock America's huge tower of wealth over to cause absolute mayhem on the opposite side of the table. As long as they don't start invading nations involved in foreign trade/political agreements the West will have no excuse to use military force, they would have to resort to running a fascist state to keep populations under control if we did.

>>12026899
Amazon endgame is total monopoly at which point all prices will skyrocket and he will cash the fuck out all his stocks and run off.
There's a quote the other day from Bezos saying Amazon is unsustainable, and like 'every other business' will one day go bankrupt too from it's size. He's a former wallstreet guy and knows whats up

>>12030541
You're forgetting that if those 3rd world fail to abide by thier debt obligations and let a massive default happen it will destroy thier credit worthiness and only further erode the value of thier currencies. It's true China may come to the rescue in the form of more loans, but then they will simply be indebted to China instead of the West, unless China decides to gove this financial aid for free.

>>12030541
I think it’s safe to bet on USD, EUR being the dominant currency for the next 20 years or so, but the blog boy does seem a little too confident in the west and therefore seems biased in his predictions. He does not know what will happen.

to busy bulking

>>12030541
>>12031426
I suppose another alternative would be for these other countries to link thier currencies with the Yuan or outright adopt it as thiers, but I'm not sure if the other nations trust China enough for this. If so, and if the Chinese make thier finances more transparent, the rise of the yuan could level the playing field in the long run, but arguably they would be subject to similar deflationary pressures if this happened, unkess their currency manipulation stays for the long haul and other parts of the world accept it. If they do though, the rest of the world will stop abiding by rules the Chinese already ignore, and could implement similar policies.

>>12031426
What happens though when all the American corporations collapse under the weight of thier debt, thus causing bankruptcies (and the Chinese government- operated corporations to buy the defunct US companies for pennies,) mass unemployment and a huge dive in tax revenue, making the government unable to service it's debts? That will definitely cause hyperinflation if the world loses trust in the dollar, amd would clearly shift the balance of power abruptly east.

>>12031612
>stop abiding by rules the Chinese already ignore
That is frightening given the circumstances. In this hypothetical Yuan-dominant future they would definitely need what you mention in >>12032145, ownership of most US companies. Imagine US companies were given the more lax rules Chinese companies have. That is definitely a possible timeline to corporate warfare/colonialism on a much larger scale than we already have.

Back to your original point I doubt countries would out-right adopt the Yuan, but if they see America as a giant bank with awful service and China gives them a good deal on loans/funding outright, they are going to switch sides easily. For lack of a better term its whoever is giving out the most gibs, not who is trying to collect on debt, that will decide whose side they're on, especially if China makes itself known as a military super power (which its trying to). America's influence dies as the free money comes to an end because we gave away too much and now need it back.

>>12032304
and on that note of military, that goes back to my previous post, America can't invade people because they aren't paying debts without serious civil repercussions/international hatred. China doesn't necessarily need to be the biggest military on earth to sway countries, they just need to be the most economically generous.

>>12027075
>>12027380
Wrong. AWS makes a lot of money. The retail is brake even.

>>12028207
I don't know who you are, but I'd really appreciate it if you stuck around this board for a while. Thank you.

>>12032304
Im not gonna lie, I want to be confodent in the US, but I am getting more scared for our financial future every day. We live paycheck to paycheck and if the dollar collapses I dont know what we will do.

>>12032498
fag

>>12032378
and the space thing losses it all

>>12026899

>Richest man
>Short balding manlet

The irony.
Wonder who his wife has to close her eyes and fantasize about when he slides his midget dick inside of her and it doesn't even touch the sides.

Of all the major CEOs isn't Jeff Bezos the least hatable?
Steve Jobs was a giant faggot, Bill Gates eats and drinks shit, Jeff Bezos doesn't even emit an aura of faggotry, and that's the scary part. He just cares about amazon, his shitty rockets, and money.
>but muh warehouse workers are overworked
Well that's your problem for signing up now isn't it.

>>12026899
He is building rocket that dwarfs falcon9 and is working on fusion power.Space empire of Amazon is his goal

>>12030344

i'd love to see your face on the day you realize how wrong you are

>>12032637
Kek she does stand upright so her husband looks taller.

>>12032769
i'd get bigger boobs

>>12032769
well its called evolution
if you a big, you have no reasons to be smart

if you are small and sickly your only way to survive is to super smart and to exploit the big
you also have to solve problems in a non violent way

in modern societies all that count is, interest balance and ability to solve problems and navigate dumb giants

Bezos is literally as alpha as you can get

>>12032769
She's a fucking javelin. I bet he's had an Amazon delivery drone pick her up with ease and drop her off whenever he wanted her.

>>12032837
Also, why does Jeff have the hands of a 70 year old? Has he been on that time travelling shit?

>>12026899
He's a well known extreme cheapskate

>>12032649
>Of all the major CEOs isn't Jeff Bezos the least hatable?

People didn't really start hating him until he became the world's richest. This is all rooted in poorfags coveting not only his wealth, but his status (and because he doesn't virtue-signal nearly as hard as Bill Gates or even Steve Jobs did).

>>12027380
>Starting the decline of the British Empire which led to them taxing their colonies more such as the colonies in the US that directly led to the United States revolution against Britain and their entire empire failing.
Amerimutt brainlet detected. You do realize the british empire peaked years after it lost the US as a colony? America at the time was a backwards farming colony that didn't offer nearly as much resources to the empire as it's African and Indian colonies. Losing it wasn't that big of a deal back in Europe.

the consumer is all that matters

>>12030353
>>12030344
>>12027380
>>12027386

Hey mate outstanding posts

What do you think about Italy?
Will it leave Eurozone?
Will it be forced to be a EU slave like Greece?
Is there a way Italy can survive with this huge debt?

>>12028402
yep and they will print more

>>12033136
>>12030353
>>12030344
>>12027380
>>12027386

Jesus will this superb anon come back? Really we have so many other question to ask him

Please econanon make a come back!!!

>>12029080
>hurr durr imaginary tribe
Real economists do studies on real tribes. What you're talking about was invented by philosophers in the 18th century and had no relation to actual early economies. Most tribal economies were based around gifts, feasting, and familial relations. The idea of "use value" as commodity didn't even exist until the industrial revolution when peasants had their lands and rights stolen by landlords with the aid of the state. Medeival peasants had huge numbers of feast days, lived communally, and shared resources. Most didn't use money except as credit at local shops and bars.

I think you're making a mistake in not reading any books, because it sounds like you've absorbed a very particular ideology that is rooted in theory rather than in actual anthropological and historical evidence.

>>12028315
Ask your profs bro, they love this shit.

>>12026899
Whats up musk

>>12030541
There's three main problems with your theory of American collapse.
1. USA is a net exporter of food.
2. As of last year, USA is a net exporter of fossil fuel energy.
3. USA has the largest internal river network.
4. USA has the largest navy by far and is currently responsible for maintaining global trade.
The Third world is completely dependent on the USA while the USA is not dependent on the Third world. If the US stops maintaining the straits of malacca, the suez canal, the cape of africa, the straits of hormuz, etc for global trade, then the Third world will be open to neo-imperialism from Japan and France. Remember the Suez canal crisis? The only reason Egypt is not a British/French colony is intervention of the USA. Worst is for China, which is directly opposite from a much stronger naval power (China is mostly occupied territory stolen from over 50 minority groups, requiring amassive standing army just to prevent open revolt. They dont have the resources to also maintain naval supremacy against Japan). Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Phillipines, none are friends of China and could easily close of trade to the middle east. China is a net importer of both food an fossil fuel energy. This is just one example. ''

The USD isn't just propped up by the US Navy, its also valuable because the internal geography of the US means that it is relatively invulnerable to external threats. The US produces enough food and energy, and has the rivier network required to support a large industrial base. The main risk to US supremacy in the short term is lack of manufacturing of basic materials like steel, which are all getting quickly repatriated under the Trump administration. Leaving Trump aside, technological advances are causing firms to "onshore" as using capital becomes ever cheaper than labor, making transportation costs the biggest concern. That's just the tip of the iceberg as to why the USA is going to do fineeven as it stops being an active superpower

>>12033295
BTFO

Bump

>>12027402
btc is not a company

>>12033136
>>12033260
The posts I wrote was just me wasting time at work. I'm home now and will got to sleep so this will be my last post.

The economy of Italy in the late 80s and early 90s was similar to that of China right now. Italy focused on producing very cheap stuff like the toys in happymeals and other stuff. The government would devalue the Lira to keep the wages low and their goods and services cheap for foreign buyers this kept growing their economy and worked for a while. Until China joined the world trade organization in late 2001. From then on China started to outcompete Italy at exactly their game, which wasn't such a big deal because the government could just keep devaluating the Lira to make Italian goods cheaper and more attractive for buyers. But when they joined the Eurozone Italy losed this trick. Suddenly the wages and products and services were very expensive as they were valuated in Euro and they couldn't devalue at will anymore while China still could so. The deep seated economic problems of Italy started here.

Italy needs to reorganize its economy to be able to succeed, which is certainly possible but would need a political push and I don't know if that is going to succeed.

Italy will most likely not leave the Eurozone too many Italian businesses depend on the Euro nowadays leaving it would crash Italy very hard and It's probably easier to stay in. From an outside perspective no one in the EU is going to throw Italy out or anything so the probability of them leaving is low.

(1/2)

>>12034702
I disagree with Greece being a slave to the EU. Greece is actually doing better than expected on their economic front without proper reformation of their economy. If greece actually had the balls to modernize their taxation and short up their bureaucracy they could have a very rapidly developing economy right now. But yes, If Italy continue the course it's on right now it'll likely have to be bailed out by the ECB after which Italy would have to do some reforms. But honestly the reforms are needed anyway as the Italian economy never really recovered from this "Chinese model" to a modern high quality goods and service based economy.

The debt itself will not be a problem for Italy. Italy is a big country and future growth of their GDP could make the debt to GDP ratio shrink. No European country is going to collapse due to its debt. The economy of the EU (as a single entity) is growing too fast to let this happen. Every country at risk will receive a bailout. People don't realize that the EU has a growth % that rivals China. Italy or Greece struggling along the way is like a single city struggling in a booming country, it doesn't matter as long as it gets lifted up alongside the EU and the EU keeps taking the hits.

>>12033295
It was just a very simple example to show the inherent point of economics. I chose the timeframe only because of the lack of currency or intermediary trade such as gold or salt. It was never meant to be a reflection of the actual time period. You also misunderstood my point about "adding value". It was meant as an actual tangible growth of the economy. Look into Game Theory to know why " The idea of "use value" as commodity didn't even exist until the industrial revolution" is a very absurd statement. You are probably just misinterpreting my words but the entire thing about trade is that it only gets done when both parties perceive the goods or services they receive to have more value than the goods or services they give. Perceive is the keyword here as humans aren't some perfect machines that inherently know if the value proposition is actually right or not. Thus for every trade done the value in the world increases because everyone feels like they have more value than they had before the trade. Tax is grabbing a bit of that "value" that increased during that trade.

Welp that's it I'm out.

>>12028587
>deflation (which is a bad thing).
I will forgo posting a brainlet image and ask sincerely: How is deflation, in and of itself, bad?

>>12027386
Holy shit an anon that isn't a neet. Incredible. I live in NYC and despite the insanely high real estate prices half the apartments in the city are empty, mostly owned by chinks and other foreign investors. This is wont end well.

>>12028590
God's love <3

>>12026899
Dubs checked.

How would Catgirls be profitable?

>>12029245
>with a deflationary currency is that it would get hoarded and slow down consumption which would result in a deflationary cycle which would grind the economy to a halt.
>people would just starve to death and never innovate
>people who know fuck all should be forced to put their money into investments they do not understand
>economies cannot function without inflation
>that's why the US economy did nothing until the fed was created
Just how Jewish are you, or are you a Shabbos goy?

>>12034729
I don't think Game Theory means what you think it means. Game Theory is a subset of decision theory and is only tangentially related to the economics of trade.
>use value as commodity existed before industrial revolution is absurd statement
Yeah, you just showed you're not just ignorant about basic contemporary economics, you're ignorant of historical economics as well. Did you even read the example I gave of medieval peasants? For most of history, people consumed the things they produced. Capital formation as we think of it today didn't exist. Locally and for almost all needs people would use credit, money was used to pay taxes and trade for tools and goods not produced locally (which was rare). Since everything was produced and consumed locally, the idea of a commodity that you could trade with a use value was non existant. The closest thing would be peddlers or traveling merchants, which were buying and selling one of a kind items that were not mass produced. Commodities do not exist without industrialization. Capital formation does not occur without industrialization; that's the very definition of industrialization: the switch from artisanal to mass production.
>every trade done in the world value increases
Both true and false. It's true in the case of peers trading with each other; like French wine being traded for American apples. However, trade flows between the First and Third worlds is defined more by debt and capital flows than by mutually beneficial trade. Debt, denominated in First world currencies, is given as "Foreign Aid" to Third world countries which use it to develop. However, the interest rates are higher than the rates of development, so the debt grows faster than the economy can support. The third world country faces a crisis with two options:
>Stop paying the debt and get invaded/sanctioned
>Get bailed out by the World Bank, which will "reform" the economy by removing worker's rights and encouraging mass export of commodities

>>12034828

Every man would want his own Catgirl. That's nearly 4 billion potential customers.

Just like shelter or electricity, people wont be able to live without Catgirls once they've experienced them once

>>12026899
can he at least fix that weird fkn eye of his? i am sure the spiritual meaning of such an eye is suppressed butthurt

>>12033481
>Three
>four
>"invulnerable to EXTERNAL threats"
If you aren't scared of your fellow American I worry for you. The moment America loses global influence the dollar will take a hit no matter what, some people are already on the edge like >>12032518 are going to fall off and we are going to have a significant portion of the population struggling to pay rent/food. At that moment external threats don't matter, its internal strife and possible secession thats the issue.

>>12031612
>link their currencies
>link
I see what you did there. Nice.

>>12034990
You're right about internal threats...
But a collapsing dollar won't happen. In fact the opposite will occur. The biggest contender for global stable currency is Europe. Lets look at their situation:
1. Net importer of oil and natgas
2. Expansionary Russia on border
3. Collapsing political and military alliances
The main thing Europe has going for it is their giant food producing plain that goes from France all the way into Russia. That same plain means that Russia has to expand into Eastern Europe in order to secure its borders as their population shrinks. And guess where all of Europe's NatGas comes from? KEK
So even though Russia will likely fail, the disruption to energy supplies to Germany plus the disruption to trade through the Middle East as the USA withdraws will make tough times there.

The US political establishment would have to be really, really stupid to mess this situation up... like on the level of Buchanan. And even then, it was civil war that caused currency inflation, not an external threat...

>>12032649
A $2 credit has been added to your amazon prime account

>>12034743
ty anon, you gave some great content.

>>12032649
i hate him ever since he bought wapo

>>12034787
>that can be bought

>>12032888
If he paid his taxes I wouldn't mind what he does.

>>12029578
wtf i hate retail now