/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>11987804
Guess only bizzraeli are awake at this hour.

>>11987804
did you draw this?

>>11987804
Ray Dalio is based and redpilled. Best billionaire.

Ok, frens, I hope you enjoy the study. I will goo sleep, I hope to see a great thread in the morning. Watch the entire video, it's amazing.

>>11987937
I wish I was.

>>11987940
He is quite cool.

>>11987804
>a pube?
Sure, i know

Makes me nervous as fuck

>>11987964
Ye, before I go night ~ night.
This is also interesting: https://soundcloud.com/economicprinciples/larry-summers-and-ray-dalio-how-the-economic-machine-works

>>11987984
You have to click on the white triangle for the video to play.

>>11987988
Wny it make you nervous, Anon?

>>11988008
Found it as video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhMbFKsYVZ0

Looks like it was unlisted.
Good stuff.

>>11987804
I am reading his FREE book right now

Based Ray trying to warn the common man

>>11988074
Added to my list.
Thanks, fren.

>>11988074
>Based Ray trying to warn the common man
pretty sure he knows social unrest is coming and wants to help before things get even worse

>>11987804
Thanks OP.

Finally something informative and useful in this shithole.

>>11988233
I know, feelsbadman.jpg.

>>11987804
based and redpilled

labor producitivity is the only thing that increases growth, just as marx predicted

>>11987804
This video is absolute baloney
>consume more than we produce
Impossible. You cannot eat bread that was never made.
>debt creates cycles because it increase then decreases consumption
Ridiculous. When I borrow money, the person I am borrowing from has to spend less money in order to lend me money. The formula is exactly balanced; every dollar saved is one dollar lent, so the amount of consumption is unchanged.

The real reason economic cycles happen is mass psychology. Prices are based on what buyers and sellers believe is a fair price. When these beliefs change, the economy is shocked creating wave like effects. Think of the housing crisis; a whole bunch of houses suddenly lost value due to a shift in beliefs. This made the mortgages more expensive than the underlying assets, panicking the banks. Banks then stop lending, and companies relying on short term loans to manage cash flow are suddenly unable to pay wages or maintain inventory. And so forth.

Debt is not some "prime evil." Every dollar of debt is exactly balanced by one dollar of credit. Rather than the economy being a simple construct, it is highly complex and difficult to manage with lots of recursive instability.

In fact, in a demand constrained economy like the one most countries are in currently because of the demographic crisis, increasing debt and printing money actually creates free productivity growth.

>>11988469
>>consume more than we produce
>Impossible. You cannot eat bread that was never made.
importing from other countries
>>debt creates cycles because it increase then decreases consumption
>Ridiculous. When I borrow money, the person I am borrowing from has to spend less money in order to lend me money. The formula is exactly balanced; every dollar saved is one dollar lent, so the amount of consumption is unchanged.
with fractional reserve banking 10 dollars lent only requires 1 dollar saved

>>11987804
see, its your own fault.
dont worrry about the banks, oh and dont even think about using crypto, its only used to drugs

>>11987804
Dalio is a based man, it would be nice if all biz watch this video.

also, his video about principles for succes is great too.

>>11988469
you should go read some more before you think your opinion is worth something. You're out of your element, Donny.
>>11988508
You can try to help him but he sounds like a retard.

>>11987804

I know about this haha. I know what this means XD

>>11989178
I agree and I will.

>>11989462
He surely does.

>>11987804
This was actually a really nice video, thanks OP

I've shared this one before. It should probably be mandatory viewing for everyone on here, it illustrates the role of the Fed's interest rates & printing press very well.

If it saves anyone from becoming a pop-culture-austrian-economist who thinks that the federal reserve is the antichrist incarnate without understanding what it even does, that's a good thing.

>>11987804
>how the machine works
"working" is the key word here, what he described is how it might work, if it indeed worked that way.

>>11987804
Fuck keynesians.

>>11988508
> importing from other countries
Does not magically create more goods. In order to have a negative trade balance there has to be positive capital flow, meaning the other country is investing in the country with a trade deficit. States are not households and the economics that apply to a family do not extend to issuers of sovereign fiat.
>fractional reserve banking
Does not allow $10 of debt to be created on $1 of credit. It allows $10 of debt and $10 of credit to be created from a $1 increase in the money supply by the central bank. Its basic accounting, every credit creates one debit. OPs video doesn't even understand accounting 101.

You are worried about excessive inflation of the money supply and expansion of the governments power. Thankfully, economic stimulus doesn't have to expand governments power. The best and fastest way to create stimulus is to reduce taxes. Ultimately, the logic of this video creates an unnecessarily high tax rate. Makes you wonder who might be behind this obviously incorrect propaganda... Who benefits from high taxes and big govt?

>>11990224
And then what does that credit get spent on nimrod?
That's where consuming more than you produce comes into play.
Create 10$ of credit, buy 3 loaves of bread, eat them, thinking you'll make enough money to pay for today's bread and tomorrow's, but you only make 15$ dollars today and you still have to eat tomorrow.
Now what.
When times are good and money is cheap, sure people believe this can work, but it eventually catches up with them. Or at least they have a stroke of bad luck and can't go to work, then the breadmaker and creditor are SOL.

>>11990001
hmmm?

>>11990272
Credit isn't spent, debt is.
If I loan you a dollar, I don't buy a loaf of bread. Instead, you do.

It's impossible for the globe to consume more than it produces. If 1m loaves of bread are produced a day, credit won't affect that, unless its a demand constrained economy in which case access to credit increases production. Which is currently the case due to demographic crisis.

>create $10 of credit
Means someone doesn't spend $10.
>buy 3 loaves of bread
The debtor is buying bread, the creditor isn't because he gave his $10 to the debtor.
>only make $15/day
Great, as the creditor I'm expecting him to pay back $0.01/day for the next 2 years. Meanwhile the bread company sold more bread, so decided to expand operations and gave our debtor a raise. Now he earns $20/hr, buy a more bread, creates virtuous cycle until productivity is maximized.
>now what
Everyone is richer.

>times are good
You're on the right track here. When demand is constrained, factories can easily expand and raise wages if more credit and debt is created. Normally, when new credit is created the result is inflation which causes problems. But under the right conditions, expanded credit means increased productivity and no inflation. Everyone can easily pay back their debt because everyone collectively is both debtor and creditor. Debtors can pay back because they got a raise.

Don't believe me? Look at what Trumps tax cuts did for USA already. Economy is growing like mad with no inflation. Growth is so high that debt load is falling fast. Go live in Germany, cuck. They are the kind of tax loving, social state spending, immigrant accepting country you belong in. Leave the real economics to the Trump.

>>11990298
>keynes
>self-made richman

>mises
>miserly academic

Is this true? Were all Austrian academics poorfag Ivory-tower dwellers?

>>11990765
>Explicitly saying Trump's economic plans are benefiting Americans
>Despite increasing suicide rates
>Decreasing rates of home ownership
>Increasing drug and healthcare issues
>Not seeing how his policies are simply allowing his buddies to make the biggest exit scam of all time, so big that even russian oligarchs are going to be jealous.

Yeah, opinion discard you absolute twat.
And guess what, I do live in Germany, Strange our Wunderwirtschaft is doing so well, even with all those taxes. It's almost like they aren't the real issue.

>>11990839
KEK fuck off to Krautchan please, everything makes sense now.

How does it feel to have partnered with France to create the most idiotic financial system ever? Enjoy your high taxes to pay off the debt that's destroying Greece and enriching Merkel's buddies. Good luck after the Britbongs finish their no deal exit and get a real economy going while the Euro continues to make your country a shithole.

Low taxes, strong economy, deficit spending, that's what's making America great again while you eurocucks get left behind to eat kebab.

>>11987804
lol how the economic machine works in 30 mins, I guess my degrees and research scholarships in business and economics are worthless before this video, go study retards, gdp is not what you think, is the producing power of a country so its a variable indicator than can be predicted on lshort medium term but not long term, the cure you uploaded doesnt explain anything, retards I have pity of you

>>11988469
I know that you really wanted to tell them how stupid and wrong they are, but unfortunately your logic does not apply in a world of greed and fractional reserve banking. Sorry, I really want to support you, as clearly you 1) care about the subject and 2) use logic (refreshing on 4chan) - but you missed some information that dramatically changes your logical outcome.

Jews like >>11990885 don't want you to know the truth.

itt: broke neets debunk Ray Dalio in 5 minutes.

>>11990839
You sound like a real cuck, get taxed more Hans

>>11987804
I was aware of some of it such as the market needing to get deleveraged but I don't have the understanding Ray does. But what he describes is actually social manipulation. But that's my opinion.

>>11990877
Spoken like someone whos never seen the world and slurped down so much capitalist realism their brains starting to rot.

Your country literally resembles the Weimar republic. Let's see what happens next.

>>11990962
This. Put your money where your mouth is.

>>11991184
>That moment you realize sustained capitalism depends on indoctrination, manufacturing consent, and cultural Marxism just as much as Soviet communism did.

>>11990962

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

>>11991314
But in this case the authority has a proven track record of making money not only for himself but to thousands of his clients.
Wheres as we are all in on chainlink and other assortment of failed internet coins.

>>11991227
capitalism most certainly depends on social regulation. you only need to look at the most successful capitalistic societies and find that they have a great many social constraints

>>11991342

>But in this case the authority has a proven track record of making money not only for himself but to thousands of his clients.

And? Appeal to authority is appeal to authority. Religions are based on the same logic really. Might aswell start believing in god at that point.

>>11991364
Get the fuck out of here with that anti intellectual po-mo bullshit.
An appeal to authority within the field youre discussing is totally appropriate and logically sound.
We're literally looking up to someone who knows how to play the game, and has won successive times before, how they got so good at the game.
I'm not going to go around saying Dalio is the best heart surgeon because of how much money he has, nor am I going to expect someone at Jon Hopkins to give me financial advice.

This goes out to all the Americans out there. Good luck goys. You're going to need it.

>>11991314
>...but nor is it reasonable to disregard the claims of experts who have a demonstrated depth of knowledge unless one has a similar level of understanding and/or access to empirical evidence.

hmmm...I wonder what could have Ray Dalio done do demonstrate depth of knowledge understanding and empirical evidence. Maybe those 18.1 billions he made but doing exactly what he's preaching. No, this must be wrong. It's the poorfags on /biz/ that shit on him who must be right.

>>11991364
You can't seriously believe that a wall street whale and some /biz/raelis have the same knowledge regarding economics?
Why not throw away all expert opinions. Might as well go to the shaman next time you get the flu.

>>11991342
don't bother. That retard doesn't even know what a logical fallacy is. By disregarding Dalio with "muh appeal to authority" he's also doing a logical fallacy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_fallacy

>>11991391
>>11991392

>An appeal to authority within the field youre discussing is totally appropriate and logically sound.

No it's not actually, it's fucking stupid.

I mean, I can see logic is hard for you guys but that doesn't make you right lol.

>>11991392
>>11991407

Okay monkeys, I know logic is hard for you but try to keep up, I never disregarded Dalio, I disregarded your appeal to his "muh 18 billion authoritah". If you can't see how those two are different there's no hope for you.

>>11991409
what are your views on academia?

>>11991409
>give him quote from his link that mentions how stupid he is by disregarding claims from experts and pushing "muh appeal to authority too far"
>show him he's also doing a logical fallacy by pushing his retarded argument to the extreme

hurr durr guys, logic is hard for you

>>11991449

>Appeal to authority
>You said that because an authority thinks something, it must therefore be true.

An actual brainlet. That's the fallacy, it literally can't be said any simpler than that.

>>11991433
Yeah, I'm sure there's no correlation between his economic theory and his 18 billion dollars. These 2 things are completely unrelated.

>>11991409
Please explain the logial rational of not trusting someone who is good at what they do on a replicable basis, when said person speaks about exactly what it is they do and why it succeeds to a predictable effect.

If you could use describe it as well as use logical symbols, breaking it down into a formula, that'd be best.
Thanks in advance.

>>11991483
You dont need to be an economist to be a billionaire

>>11991461
listen up faggot, cause I know your autistic brain has trouble processing this.
There's one thing to call bullshit on retarded NPC shit like "Einstein said X about completely unrelated topic" and another thing to autistically screech "APPEAL TO AUTHORITY" when that authority used exactly that knowledge to make a fortune. That's the closest thing to empirical evidence that you're gonna get when it comes to economic theory. Unless another guy comes with a step by step solution that turns every poorfag into a richfag, Dalio is as close as you're gonna get. Now fuck off.

>>11991501

>trusting someone

I mean, it's really not rocket science bro...

You can go ahead and trust the guy to have your best interest at heart all you want but it still doesn't mean it's a logical thing to do lol.

>>11988342
>labor producitivity
>labor
wrong
Productivity. Period.
>what is automation?

>>11991518
>You dont need to be an economist to be a billionaire
Except Dalio made his billions but understanding and playing the market exactly as he described in his theory. He's not some tech-fag that also has an opinion on the economy. He literally practiced what he preached and made 18 billions. What the fuck is hard to understand?

>>11991539
It's certainly more logical than trusting random internet strangers in a cryptocurrency sub forum of a mongolian throat singing board.

>>11991436

What's your point? People in academia understand this. Even PhDs are required to present proof and sources for their claims. They usually don't go around saying "my argument is true because I have a PhD lol".

>>11991539
You're not breaking down the argument into logical equations.
I can only come to conclusion that you can't process logic.
Good day sir.

>>11991588

Well, I guess you can't process english bro. Why would you want "logical equations" anyway? Based on what you've typed here you wouldn't understand any of it anyway. You're appealing to my (assumed lack of) authority again.

>>11991577
>I make these claims about the economy
>I will now use these claims to make a fuckton of money
>a few years later
>Looks like I've made in the top 50 richest people on the planet
>hurr durr but where is your proof, bro?

>>11991623
I said good day.

>>11991577
>t. high school philosopher
People in academia understand this, but they also understand that you will never progress if you try to verify or dismiss each and every claim someone makes. They use your university, advisor, previous publications, grants, ... as an intermediate step to check if it's worth it to read your paper. Try to get your great paper sent out for revision in the annals or nature without any prior work in the field or a good advisor.
This of course doesn't make something right because it's from ray dalio, but you should be aware that he probably knows what he's talking about and that you probably shouldn't immediately dismiss it.

>>11991637

I accept your concession. Good day.

>>11991665

>This of course doesn't make something right because it's from ray dalio, but you should be aware that he probably knows what he's talking about and that you probably shouldn't immediately dismiss it.

Yaaawn, your stupidity is getting really boring right about now. For homework you should find the post where I "immediately dismissed" him.

>>11988469
Except in a fractional reserve economy.

>>11991687
>>11990962
>don't immediately dismiss him because he seems to know what he's doing
>>11991314
>that's a logical fallacy