/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>11812572
BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP

some smart guy told me the real estate market IS the economy. so its a good way to tell where were headed. The markets been slow recently, but rent is still going up somehow so that should give you an idea.

Basically houses are overvalued but theres a lot of niggers/mexicans with bad credit who can only rent so people are starting to rent more so house prices are going down loans are getting more expensive and rents are increasing too

I'm assuming you're in Canada or Australia since they're in bubble territory. Why not try buying in the US? Housing has gone up here but it's still very decent in terms of price to rent ratio compared to other countries. And interest rates are just getting higher.

>>11812636
This seems like a redpilled take, but what is the time frame? People at my job said that now that Democrats have the House, we should expect the economy to get shittier.

>>11812572

>>11812572
>tfw no gymbro to lift with
>no homo

My personal calculations put the next collapse at anywhere between this coming January and mid 2020.

Maybe put your money in highly safe and liquid assets until things hit the fan, it's not worth it to get 5 percent returns for a couple months before losing like 30%

>>11812636
They will (and you’re already starting to see it) expand credit. I.e. relax lending standards for the nigger and spic renters

>>11812572
I'd say about a year till the crash

>>11812662
The main thing that makes the economy go bad is fear that government will regulate the free market. The regulatory agencys are all under the executive branch. As long as a R sits in the white house House economy with be decent.

Houses in my city (90k average salary, 89% white) have stopped selling since the summer ended
Take it as you will, but I've strapped in

>>11812960
Lmao

>>11812572
BRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP

>>11813039
Yeah my wife and I bought our house last summer for 355k, could have sold for 405 this summer but missed the window, now there’s for sale signs popping up and staying up everywhere. Just gonna rent it out for 3k a month (thanks section 8) and ride out this dump and hopefully pick up another property at the bottom. Bummed to see that 50k go.

>>11812960
You can't be this stupid? Or gullible?

>>11813049
Ancaps man, gotta love em.

>>11812960
Regulators arent controlled by the government, the SEC for example is not controlled by any minister. Same with the FED, thats one reason people called it a zionist occupied government, unelected Jews loyal to Israel control the important parts like finance.

>>11813341
Secretary, whatever.

>>11812636
It's not just niggers and Mexicans, nobody buys anymore. Millennials are renting into their 40s. How does this impact the market?

>>11812778
>My personal calculations
Pardon me for my skepticism but I don't believe you have made any calculations unless I can see some presented.

>>11813427
rents prices will increase as demand for rent increases. Not sure how it will affect home prices however. If they take a huge hit obviously rent will decrease proportionately, but really it will back back since everyone needs housing and theres only so many houses available for rent

Honestly I cant tell whats going to happen.

>>11812572

>>11813096
Just wait until you see what the section 8 niggers do to your house.

>>11813507
Well I say calculations loosely. All I mean is that I've observed a lot of things helping the us economy will be gone by January. The stimulus from the tax breaks will be gone and the lower oil prices will have recovered due to the us cutting production. The holiday season will be over and with it the higher demand, and if the demand falls short in this crucial period that's when it will be felt. The full 25% us tariffs will also be implemented in this time, meaning China won't be trying to rush to get goods in before this anymore and there will be a real cut in supply.

The oil prices especially have been working to mitigate both the inflation caused by the trade war and the strain on transportation/infrastructure caused by the tight labor market and hot economy overall.

Private debt defaults have also been increasing and it seems much of the boost to consumer spending has come from debt. By January the fed will have done its last confirmed rate hike and will signal its strategy for 2019.

Taken together, once the full impact of the trade war and the hot economy are felt, many firms will face a profitability crisis and face high default risk with higher interest rates. It will be a time of intense vulnerability for the US economy, which has been the biggest boost for the global economy at large.

>>11813096
What kind of house gets 3k for section 8? Its got to be big which means many many niglets about to destroy your hard earned property.

>>11812678
I just got a warning from the mods for making BRAP post.

>>11812572
I work in the mortgage industry. There is a slow panic evolving about the rising rates. We're on pace for our lowest annual closing volume in USD in over 6 years. Nobody is buying or refinancing and the fed is set to raise rates again in December, and again a few times next year. The housing market is going to come to a complete standstill due to the high rates and high housing prices. I think the fed fucked up by keeping rates low for too long. Economy fucking exploded under a republican dominated government that encourages spending and production. That's a good thing if the fed keeps it under a little more control, but they didn't. Now they're doing some damage control and the music is going to come to a stop soon. Setting my sights on 2020-2021.

>>11813799
Stimulus when the economy was already warm was a bad idea, you're putting strains on the labor market, transportation and logistics networks right when the fed would be raising rates. This is going to create big profitability crises when companies cant just borrow their way out

>>11813799
Explain this to a brianlet. What do rising rates do? And are they gonna keep raising rates, and if they change course, would that make it a good time to buy?

>>11814217
Raising rates increase the cost of borrowing, and since borrowing is almost always necessary to buy houses it increases the cost of homes. The fed is raising rates because the economy is booming and inflation is increasing, as it has a mandate to limit such inflation. If the fed stopped raising rates, it'd probably mean shits about to hit the fan. Dont buy at that point, wait a year or at least a couple months for prices to bottom out.

>>11812572
Real estate is currently fucked up beyond all measure by foreign investors

>>11813763
mods are training for the 4channel reddit lite exodus

>>11812572
16 years cycle last one started 2008

>>11814351
Thought it was 10 yeae cycle, is it usually 16 years?

>>11812960
>spewing """free market"""" bs on /biz/
lurk moar newfag

Just in time for 2020 so Trump doesn't get re-elected.

>>11812572
It seems like it's been said before, but unless you live in an over heated market like Seattle or San Fran, the housing market is not going to pop.
The rental game is too good.
Literal Chinese and financial groups like blackstone and invitation homes are swooping up every cheap house they can get their hands on.
They will make you rent for eternity.

>>11814789
>Implying Trump doesn't want to manufacture a crisis so he can stay in power.
It worked for Cesar, and Adolf, and GWB, it will work for him.

>>11812572
Probably 2020 or so. Even a crash can take a while to see major corrections. Unless we go into a great depression.

>>11814842
So you're saying prices are going to go into free fall or even significant decline? Everyone else seems to be saying otherwise...

>>11815631
Learn to fucking read idiot

>>11815683
Post your fucking address, tough guy. Come on do it right now.

>>11812572
yes, but the collapse will take 5 years and you will lose your job at year 5

>>11815811
Doubt it, I'm a nurse (male)

>>11815829
well then, just sit back and enjoy, put your money into https://www.treasurydirect.gov/ so you don't lose it

>>11812678
>>11813763

*scratch scratch*

sniffff

>>11813135
How's that Quantitative Easing doing for us now? All it did was doom America for hyperinflation. Should have naturally allowed the big banks to collapse instead of bailing them out with taxpayer $$$

>>11813096
>thanks section 8
What was in this section ?

>>11813096
>>11813755

Yea bro Sec 8 is garbage, it's very rare you'll find immigrant families who respect your property.

Otherwise the only family approved for a whole house is a single mom with 50 chitlins who will fuck your house up so bad, but not bad enough to call it a write off.

>>11815873
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_8_(housing)

Government picks up most of the rent check for degenerates and poors. It ends up destroying the houses, neighborhoods, and school districts involved.

>>11815631
I'm saying that until people stop paying their rents, the capitalists will continue to rent out every slum they can get their hands on.
Prices for said slums will never go down as along as the rental rates will pay it off in 5 to 10 years.

>>11816921
Hmm the vernacular you're using suggests to me that you're a commie, so now I don't care what you think.

>>11814336
this. It's why we have higher highs in places like SF yet places like Central Valley CA aren't past previous top, nowhere even close.

I just heard tonight housing prices in the Boston area are starting to go down. Lock n load!

>>11812572
I'm buying now. The house I bought isn't too far over its 2008 low. Not concerned about a draw down at all. I can afford the mortgage comfortably and love the house. Also taking advantage of the back end of historically low rates.

>>11812572