/biz/ - Business & Finance

US Fed is raising rates and the BBSW increases for Australian banks who pass on the interest rate rise to Australian mortgages: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-interest-rate.png?s=fdtr&v=201809261820x

The Fed is expected to raise rates in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-raises-u-s-interest-rates-sees-at-least-three-more-years-of-growth-idUSKCN1M60EE

Here's some data from previous bubbles to aid you in approximating what the value of a property today could be worth at the bubbles bottom: https://i.imgur.com/yX5AXk9.png

That's from Page 5 of this economic paper published in 2007 in Ireland by Prof. Kelly who correctly predicted the bubble and the dramatic price falls. See: http://irserver.ucd.ie/bitstream/handle/10197/38/kellym_workpap_001.pdf

For comparison Sydney rose over 100% since 2009: https://www.yourmortgage.com.au/mortgage-news/sydney-home-prices-have-risen-over-100-since-2009/255029/

This too shows the peak to troughs of bubbles: https://imgur.com/a/yKrpe6C

Interview here where he debates a property bull with tears in his eyes trying to help people see what was going to happen to the Irish economy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0

In the end this all comes down to credit. What can a person borrow? The answer is much less than in the past few years. Meaning their is no physical way for people to pay the prices they had, and prices therefore must come down when property owners are forced to sell due to moving, deceased estates, debts or divorce. See: https://www.sMH.com.au/money/borrowing/one-in-five-people-with-a-mortgage-wouldn-t-qualify-today-broker-warns-20180719-p4zscl.html

All these new buyers on Interest Only loans will rollover in 2019/2020/2021, and almost all of them will have made a loss in Syd/Melb, so they'll be in negative equity, and they'll be required to increase repayments by around 40% when going from IO to I+P, on a depreciating asset in a falling market, and lose hundreds of thousands - or they'll sell the property to stop the losses, and they'll be forced to come up with the hundreds of thousands difference between the principle mortgage value (that they didn't pay off) and the sale price of the property. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-ag-2018-04-24-graph4.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwV9bwIkWqw The consequences of the combination of forced sales and IO rollovers who can't afford I+P selling at the same time are outlined here. Notable fact Off-The-Plan buyers who paid years ago for a property worth $X will have the property revalued at settlement by their bank, and the bank will value it lower than when they bought it years ago, and the buyer will need to scrape together the difference between what they purchased for and what the property is now valued at. Basically off the plan buyers are going to be in debt at the time of settlement and most won'y have access to the money to make up the difference - and will have to buy into negative equity, or sell and make a loss before they even got to use the property.

I know of at least 1 suburb in Sydney that's down -30% for homes in 7 months

>>11787511
This is why Australians should be invested in StrayaCoin

>>11787551
A lot of people don't understand how far their suburb has fallen in value. The price metrics are measuring the year to date, so half the average is built up of sales from over 6 months ago.

When the market turns 30% in 6 months, it goes from 10 to 7, but the measurement still includes all the 10's, making it look like the new average isnt 7, but closer to 8.5.

In another 6 months all these statistics are gonna look fucking insane because they'll all be showing 30% drops, measuring sales between May 2018 and May 2019.

https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1063703789163540480

>>11787511
Australian banks are -35% down this year. Looks like they will fall another 30% in the next 6 months if the Chinese economy doesn't recover with a trade deal. December will be red again once people realize there won't be a trade deal on the G20 or any time soon.

>>11788114
my cba and anz shares got smashed
even the little banks like bendigo
aaaaaaaaaaaa

this is good
fuck the greedy fucks that own property as a way to make money, fuck them hard in the ass
I wish I was an aussie so I could buy my own house for cheap... just hoping the property bubble explodes in my country soon

>>11787511
>>11787511
Whats your go? You post this shit here over and over. Please explain your agenda otherwise you probably should be seeking serious mental health care.

>>11788223
Thought I was onto a good thing picking up NAB shares at $29. Well now they're $23. Oh well at least I still have my exorbitant dividend.

>>11788420
This. What's op's angle

Daily reminder the government & APRA will confiscate your savings to bailout failing banks
http://cecaust.com.au/releases/2018_02_16_Govt_APRA.html
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/senate-passes-e2-80-98bail-in-e2-80-99-law-e2-80-93-how-safe-is-your-cash-now-/tabid/88/a/1722/default.aspx

>>11788420
>>11788441

>Sharing facts is bad

Go watch tv

>>11788453
Fuck, now cousin Stuey is in on the act!!

>>11788456
You are sharing shit. You would be better off watching tv.

the beginning of the end lads

god I can't wait for north america to burst, I'm going to cum with no stimulation

>>11788467
Literally, literally, literally, every single thing I shared is sourced objective data.

Why do you hate the truth? Go watch tv

>>11788476
I got nothing against the truth.

What is your obsession with it though?

By the way, I would like to dedicate all of your truths to Mr Bob "bullshit" Hawke.

>>11788469
I read USA is up 5% yoy, not sure how that stacks against the preceding few years, or how that measures against your inflation. Doesnt really matter now you've got rate rises for the next 2 years due to overheating, it'll drop from 5% to -x%.

>>11788486
>What's your obsession with the biggest investment of your life?

I don't have any idea. Why don't I just make the biggest decision of my life that'll follow me for 30+ years without giving it considerable and constant and informed thought, like you?

>>11788492
Yeah, I guessed you nailed it on the head.

I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.

But you, well, every percentage point of change either cause you to cum or shit in your pants.

You spill your lunch on your keyboard while pumping this shit.

Yes I can see being uniformed and ignoring the truth is affecting my quality of life.

I envy you, your thirst for knowledge and your desire to spread it like syphilis.

>>11788487
the thing that most people don't realize is that the tax cut that trump "generously" gave us was a wolf in sheep's clothing. basically essential expenses like housing are rising considerably, to crisis levels. without the tax cut we would be in a crisis, but thanks to the tax cut that crisis was averted because real expenses were offset by the savings.

it won't last long though - yes, housing supply is low and demand is high which will legitimately inflate the prices, bit prices will only continue to rise because non-banks are now providing the loans to make such prices possible since banks (which are averse to risk and must follow OCC regulations) will not make the loans that people need to perpetuate the housing bubble. however, non-banks are conveniently filling that gap which means prices continue to rise. I don't know how long they can keep it all going, but what I'm trying to say is - it's only a matter of time.

>>11788533
>I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.

Yes it does

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

>>11788420
>>11788467
>>11788486
>>11788533
>discussing finance in a business and finance board

you know you can make money off a housing crash, r-right?

>>11788541
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

My Fren, Opportunity cost is the underlying basis of all economics or more importantly the comparative lack of resources.

But it is what it is. The price of anything is what it is.

Are you pushing for political or social change?

You aren't one of these guys who doesn't know what he wants out of life but is pretty sure he hasn't got it, are you?

>>11788575
Are you on meth?

>>I only need a house to live in, If it goes up or down I don't care as long as I can pay the payment. Doesn't make my life better or worse if its worth $500K or $1.5M.

If you buy something for $1.5M today that'll be worth $500K soon, you've lost the opportunity to invest that $1.0M elsewhere.

Do you not understand the loss? Do you not understand the pursuit of profit? Do you not have a profit motive? Do you want to make wealth or lose wealth? I don't care what you think about anything, but you should know you are an idiot, and wrong.

>huge country
>shit ton of space
>housing prices are insane
i really can't grasp the idea.

>>11788533
you are naive friend. maybe you're lucky and it won't happen to you, but this is what happens when a housing bubble bursts.

>family buys house for $300k
>down payment was 5% on an FHA loan (fha loans have a ~9% delinquency rate) which means 95% of the value of the house was backed by the loan (called "LTV" - loan to value)
>major recession hits
>house now worth $200k
>loan is now "underwater" because the loan balance is $285k, and the sell value would be $200k, which means there's an $85k gap that is preventing the home owner from selling
>home owners now lose their jobs due to recession
>have to pay mortgage on $285k loan for a $200k home
>can't pay
>foreclosure, bankruptcy, the works
>home owners credit ruined, lose their home

we've made the bed, now we're going to lie in it

>>11788587
No Mr Adam Smith. You are wrong. I need a house to live in. One house. If it goes up to $1.5M I am not going to sell it to invest the "newfound gain", for alas, where would I live.

You pencil necked geeks have no idea how the common person lives or see's life.

Being so intelligent must be more of a burden than a benefit I assume.

My god ignorance is bliss. A bliss you never, ever, will be able to experience.

Now, go away boy, you bother me.

>>11788632
Its a desert with a coastline, and along the cost we have about 5 cities that are hours apart with no railroads between them.

So imagine America but the entire middle of the country is uninhabitable, and the only places you can live are California, New York, and 3 other cities spread out 12 hours from each other by car.

>>11788661
When this all happens does the ground open up and we can actually see hell fire?

>>11788672
>I need a house to live in
>Therefore it doesnt matter if it costs $1.5M or $500K because opportunity cost stops existing when I want a house

the absolute state of you

>>11788686
Opportunity cost only starts existing when you are aware of it.

You can't contemplate that 95% of us sheep don't know what the hell it is your talking about.

Do you think it will make us 95% of people more happy knowing about your convoluted theories that may actually play out in practice.

Can you grasp that question?

>>11788683
it already happened in 2008, we just don't ever learn from our mistakes.

granted 2008 was very different from today - the primary cause back then was fraud. loans were being given out to retards on nothing but stated income and asset amounts, no verification if they were actually credit worthy. the underwriting is somewhat legitimate now, at real banks - I can't speak to non-banks. non-banks will probably be the cause of the next bubble burst most likely. but it's going to be a combination of all the debt bubbles that pushes it over the edge. student, auto, revolving, and housing. we really never learn.

>>11788729
>>11788681

It is all pretty much irrelevant anyway because within 5 years the Chinese will militarily invade and then what are you going to do with all of your economics degrees.

Your education will be worthless when you are subservient to a communist occupation.

>open up /pol/
>theres no aus/pol/ thread up yet

reeeeeeee eee e e eee eee ee e eeeee

>>11788725
>Opportunity cost only starts existing when you are aware of it.

>>11788729
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/500b-dollars-of-liar-loans-in-australia-ubs/8892030

I am from Sydney, from the Western Suburbs, i recently sold my unit for 750K and put half of it in crypto 25% BTC, 25% ETH, 25% Ripple and the rest 25% i bought shitcoins on tradesatoshi, mostly NIM, TRTL and Garliccoin.
i got a Thailand retiree visa for 10k and i am moving there.
bye bye Australia

>>11788762

>https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/chinese-officials-create-diplomatic-storm-at-apec/10508812

I talk to executives, accounants, chief risk officers, etc. Banks have been planning for a fall for a very long time. Many investors lied about their income- I know of people who have more clients than they can count, that have overstated their income through fraudulent processes & owe the tax office thousands upon thousands of dollars they can't pay- Just to try and get into the property market by overstating their income for serviceability purposes.

There is a floor price of property, determined by interest rates, access to credit, and liquidity in the general finsncial system both inside and outside of our country.

Our government taxes through stamp duty, income tax(on a growing financial, construction and real estate sector), company tax, and capital gains. The US doesn't, and that is why houses are cheap.

If houses and stocks get CGT discount stripped, and interest tax deductability removed, people will move money into bonds, lowering interest rates effectively & allowing the government to spend more, including deficit spending.

Keynesian economics. Learn to use it to your advantage or miss the best opportunity to invest in the mining and property sector in an appropriate time.

Predictions:
Peak to trough of 27-33% falls in sydney greater area, 22-26% melbourne, 8% maximum brisbane.

Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price.

The trend is the government wants it to be tax ineffective for all asset classes for the population, minus government bonds. And in doing so, the government wants to borrow, buy assets, and jack up their price. I can go on for hours. I know how this government works, and I know what people are doing to profit in changing trends.

>>11788898
>Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price.

I think that'll be the case. The media will develop some rule of thumb that the older builds should be worth 5-10% less because they lack NG potential or something, and that'll increase the range of prices (older homes are already -% against new ones, when comparable, so it'll just increase the gap)

That'll be good for young families who just want a home to live in

>>11788898
>Developable land values will increase greatly when Labor gets in, existing houses will drop in price. Shares will fall in price.
Shares will fall even more?
Please no

I wish I was on the spectrum so I could predict this shit

>>11788972
Shares are still at high PB multiples. Manufacturing shares are overpriced. Bank shares are overpriced (for now). Miners will assumably be strong going forward, there is a good chance interest rates will fall as the next momenent in my opinion.

>>11788966
Agreed- Great chance for anyone young. Honestly hate labor but the plan has been long in the making for them to swoop in and get the 16-35 yr old demographic.

>>11789018
Why do you think mining shares would be unaffected?

>>11789008
kek

spergs who waste their autism on non-profitable shit are doubly retarded

>>11789050
AUD will continue to shit itself so China will come in to buy cheap commodities that they'll either use or shelf until necessary.

>>11789050
Unaffected? A rocket will be under their arse, most likely. Falling dollar (aus dropping rates while us raising & huge bond yields bring demand for usd), chinese stimulus going to hit soon (demand for iron already becoming priced in, at 75 usd). Factor that with a falling dollar, and mining sector will be billions more each year in government revenue just from rio and bhp.
Fewer will be buying the good news as their margin loans arent tax deductible and cgt discount is piss all, so gains wouldn't be as good as a few years ago would suggest.

>>11789117
>tfw you're gonna see Perth and WA bubble up again and all these retarded tradies who are now <30 yo who didnt experience/remember the GFC will invest in Perth/WA real estate and lose it all when the dollar recovers

>>11789117
>>11789132
Okay so second mining boom soon.
What good small caps are out there?

>>11789132
Sparkies rent, and they're the higher income earners trade wise. Welders and alike are more inclined to buy- they earn about 15-20% less though. Long term, manufacturing well could move inland for machinery- lithium battery production, solar panels, and metal components- It's an idea i literally just came up with very drunk, so excuse it.

I don't think prices will rise much, no property company touches those areas for development purposes due to their volatility. "Rental yields will increase but and occupancy will tighten" - check out my faggot executive lingo ;)

>>11789182
I liked how you said "tighten", that's a good all purpose executive word to throw in. It's like chicken salt.

>>11789165
Small caps? Are you high? Going forward, access to cheap capital is a huge economic moat (comparative advantage) for bigger companies. Automation is implemented when the cashflow provided is at a logical/required level given the company's situation.

Big miners will get bigger, small miners will be purchased at a small discount to book value for scrap, i'd assume. All mining equipment that isn't electric is going to be a writedown on the books in about 7 or 8 years.

BHP RIO for stability
RSG for good value, fundamentally sound.

I remember investing pre mining boom blindly picking stocks after dad said to do so. PDZ in at 12c out at low sixties. Timing is what matters. Rockefellers aren't in oil anymore. Food for thought.

>>11789190
Thanks, I haven't eaten today and these beers are really starting to hit me. That faggot PC lingo is why i'd only be public to buy back my stock at below book value & purposely devalue to go private.

housing is stable
you wont get a serious discount on a home just because theres been a slump

>>11789235
i can show you homes that are 30% cheaper today than 6 months ago. if that isnt a discount, already, what is a discount?

>>11789235
Im rich northwest, white suburb. Median has gone from 3m to 2m flat. Look at what sold last month vs original listing price, and apply that discount relatively to current properties.

>>11789182
people are creatures of habit. once they see the rental squeeze theyll want a piece of it.

>>11789277

cashed up bogans + cheap real estate = +++

>>11789277
>squeeze
This is another good piece of lingo.

>>11789294
obfuscating lingo necessitates to prohibit proles from dropping eaves

you know the crash is close when overleveraged retards start lashing out at the messenger
and oh would you just look at what's going on ITT
so on point you'd be excused for believing this is OP on a proxy adding credence to his argument

>>11789316
U need a beer cunt

>>11789182

Do you have discord or protonmail? Fascinated by points and would love to discuss this further

>>11789365
Ill make a tenminutemail and you email me and ill give you my email there

>>11788286
I have been biding my time for well over 5 years now.
I'm rubbing my hands together thinking about this.
It is glorious

j3899828@nwytg.net
Email me with your normal account and ill reply on my personal

>Rational economic decision making has been shown to produce high levels of cortisol, epinephrine and corticosteroids, associated with elevated levels of stress. It seems that the dopaminic system is only activated upon achieving the reward, and otherwise the "pain" receptors, particularly in the pre-frontal cortex of the left hemisphere of the brain show a high level of activation.

Rilling J.K., Sanfey A.G., Aronson J.A., Nystrom L.E., Cohen J.D. (2004). "Opposing BOLD responses to reciprocated and unreciprocated altruism in putative reward pathways". NeuroReport 15: 2539–2543. doi:10.1097/00001756-200411150-00022

>>11789454
Can confirm that execs achieve grey hair status after a bear market

>>11789465
So you'd have to have an abnormal reaction to pain, and a tolerance for stress, in order to best biologically succeed in investing then.

>>11789483
Im down 35% in 4 months. Not fazed. I sell my gainers at a price I wouldn't consider them a value buy.

I think it's autism but

What about Canada?

>>11789494
If u cant figure that out then you should drink more beer and hit the acid harder.

>>11789483
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2626753/

High test autism is the best for trading, confirmed

>>11789569
General managers or higher are autistic & technically correct, with good ideas and management skills (ocd really, go ape shit if something can be fixed and isnt) or just good with people and charismatic.

Watch jamie dimon. He's good with people. Dick Weil is someone who'd complain when his mug was tilted 3 degrees in the cupboard.

>>11789365
Missed the opportunity bud

>>11789506
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/canada-s-housing-market-shows-increasing-signs-of-soft-landing?srnd=premium-canada

>>11789704
They said syd would go for soft landing. You think anyone with power listens to the media? And not their friends who are pulling the strings making trends?

>>11788632
Despite what some anons might side about arid desserts etc, the reality is Australian coastline is MASSIVE and full of liveable space.
The problem is Infrastructure and lack of incentives.

It all started when Australia allowed non white immigrants who settled in the 2 biggest cities Melbourne and Sydney which grew disproportionately to the rest of the country, basically everything in Australia is whitin 3-4 cities and the rest lacks basic infrastructure such as colleges, hospitals etc, highways are pathetic at best for a first world country leaving people with no choice but to remain in the population centres.

I currently live in Sydney and want to move out to Perth which is a bit more affordable the issue is employment, I make good coin here in Sydney and could never hope to make this much anywhere else.
Even now all the immigrants and students just come straight to Sydney with no incentive to move to any other city which desperately needs people.
Coastline is full of little town which potential but good luck moving there and starting a life or successful business, whatever money u save buying a house there you’ll spend in the ammenities u can’t find there. We can’t even provide internet for these communities.
Our government is pathetic and boomers are running this country straight into the ground they don’t give a fuck the only thing they care about it’s their property value, they were well aware the government was selling the country to China and they got behind them because their house price kept going up.

That’s why all the zoomers like OP are jizzing in the pants at the prospect or a day or reckoning.

Fucking boomers sold the country and now their properties are going to plummet, DELICIOUS.

>>11789740
Then fuck off out of sydney? Melbourne will be bigger than sydney in a decade or so. Brissy is beautiful. Perth if youre a miner...

>>11789704
I can't see how anywhere where people were highly leveraged can have a soft landing in the face of interest rate rises from the US. Canada can't buck that trend, capacity to borrow gets reduced when rates rise, and borrowers hit the wall and are forced to sell (at loss).

My understanding of Canada right now is that the bubble has only recently, as in within 1 or 2 months, began to deflate. It'll take years to deflate, and extrapolating that the beginning not being a huge drop in prices means the continung drop in prices won't gain momentum in the face of rate rises and negative sentiment isn't very logical.

>>11788533
This comment is right at the centre of the reddit-facebook-normie Venn diagram.
Your whole existence is repulsive and i can't believe you're even on this board. Why the fuck are you on 4chan, let alone /biz/? How did you get here? Don't you have Marvel Cinematic Universe memes to post to your Snap Story?

>>11789760
There's a nice correlation, not exact but it'll provide a general rule. Watch the US market. They're still bouyant but that'll come to an end now they're at the end of monetary expansion.

>>11788835
How old are you and how big is your portfolio?

>>11789785
Anyone in parramatta is indian, only has whack marks from their parents, or is muslim.

This thing just keeps going up. Easiest x3 I ever did and it was in the middle of a fucking dump. And it's STILL the most undervalued crypto in the entire space

>>11789841

>>11789841
poojeet

>>11788835
remember capital gains taxes, the govt is desperate for cash, and can fuck you from abroad

>>11788672
>Now, go away boy, you bother me.

Cringe, who's wine mom are you?

>>11788420
butthurt zoomer with 5 over leveraged loans detected... bet you dont feel smart now do ya champ

>>11789758
What part of I make more coin here than I possibly could anywhere else u don’t understand.
I could make a similar amount in Melbourne but the prices are similar so there is no real advantage.

No incentive to move away from the overcrowded cities. Gotta suck it up.

>>11788420
My agenda is simple.
I want all the boomers who sold the future of their kids to chinks to suffer.

Boomers act like it was tough to buy a house back then yet before 1990 at worst the average price of a house in sidney was the equivalent of 6 years of wages, nowadays is about 20 years worth.
And the reason? Boomers sold the country to chinks and foreign investors knowing damn well they would destroy the dreams of future generations.
Most aussies don’t even want a backyard now, they just want to not have to pay 500 dollars a week in rent even if it means living in a unit.
That’s the Aussie dream now, a fucking unit.

Cunts.
They even have the nerve to demand more age care and welfare when 90% of the welfare budget goes towards age care.
I will vote against old people every chance I get, because I know damn well I won’t get the benefits they get now because it’s unsustainable it’s a fucking pyramid scheme.
You can only import dirty pajeets to pay taxes to support the welfare state for so long.
It will collapse, thanks boomers. Having everything handed to you wasn’t enough you also had to steal from future generations.

>>11790199
Checked, preach and hear hear. Listening to fatarse smug The Australian reading boomer fuckheads condescend to younger people about how they need to be less entitled, when boomers themselves are the most entitled generation in history, is why I want to see it all collapse.

>>11790655
>just take on a 14x income mortgage. I swear it'll be profitable. Wages aren't increasing ahead of cpi or broad money but somehow you're going to find a buyer who borrows 28x their income so you can double your money one day

Doubt

>>11790199
>>11790655
double checked
The boomer tears will be glorious

Boomers have a huge money illusion
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_illusion

They don't understand real prices. They don't get how much more expensive living is for us.

>>11790961
based

>>11788534
>hout the tax cut we would be in a crisis, but thanks to the tax cut that crisis was averted because real expenses were offset by the savings.

That is the most retarded thing I have read all week. You realize Trump capped state income tax and property tax deduction at 10K right? Who do you think that'll fuck over the hardest?

CA, NY, IL, CT, MA. All of the blue states with insane property taxes and high state income taxa rates. Now what is happening is the those property owners, mainly boomers, are running for the exits and looking to dump their bags. Finding very few buyers.

The Tax Act will fuck the property markets in these states the hardest. Even then if these people cannot sell they cannot go and buy properties in low tax states because all their wealth is still tied down in their shit blue state. It will lead to a domino effect.

>>11788683
Better.

>>11793083
year over year housing cost per month is skyrocketing, and the only reason people can afford it this year is because of the tax cuts, otherwise it would start busting their debt to income ratios. you'll see in time.

Guys, I unironically bought $3.1M of property and have $2.4M debt. Positively geared and interest rates lock to end of 2021. What do?

tfw work in sydney and own land in snowy mountains so who gives a fuck about property prices I'll only end up paying less rent

It's fucked but everything will be fine until

>Labor wins next year
>Bulk of interest only mortgages roll over next year

Until then keep your $$$ in the market, things will go south Q2/Q3 next year. Until then it's just a gradual decline.

>>11794114
Pepper your angus m8

>>11794114
What is the breakdown of your debt? And what is your yearly household income?

>>11787511
About time.
Property is the worst fucking thing to invest in, non-productive asset, doesn't employ anyone. All around shit.
Hopefully we go back to investing in factories and farms because houses and processed dirt is all we seem to do right now.

>>11794114
You're retarted for locking in your rates. Seriously. And for being so leveraged.

>>11794095
I doubt the only reason people can afford housing rn is because of tax cuts. People can afford rent and pay their mortgage, they just have no savings.

>>11794114
you are fucked

>>11796162
but surely factories ultimately make something to put into or used by the home....or to get to

>After moderating in late October and early November, Australia’s housing market downturn accelerated last week, coinciding with a seasonal increase in supply ahead of the Christmas and New Year period.

>Prices fell by 0.5% in Sydney, an unusually large fall compared to those seen this year. Median values also fell in all other mainland state capital city markets except for Adelaide last week.
>Sydney has now re-overtaken Melbourne as the market with the largest price declines this year.
>Property listings have increased in all capital cities over the past year except for Darwin, hinting that supply may weigh on values in these markets should demand fail to improve.

JUST

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-market-downturn-sydney-melbourne-home-prices-2018-11

https://twitter.com/cmkusher/status/1064319330572062720

>When auction clearance rates were as low as they are currently in 2008, the cash rate was 7.25% eventually falling to 3% and the Federal Government introduced the first home owner's grant boost and that re-inflated housing in Syd and Mel
>In 2011 auction clearance rates were also at similar levels to what they are currently after the first home owner’s grant boost had been removed and following the cash rate being shifted from 3% to 4.75%
>The thing that saw Sydney housing improve again was lower interest rates with the cash rate shifting from 4.75% all the way to 1.5% where it sits currently.
>The current Syd decline is deeper and longer than both the 2008 and 2011 period of value decline while in Mel the falls to date are more rapid than both period but the declines are occurring faster than in 2011.
>Yet the RBA is saying that the current slowdown in housing is orderly. Compared to previous periods where values were falling and considering the actions that were taken it doesn’t seem all the orderly.
>I realise that housing is nowhere near the whole economy but it is worth more than $7 trillion so it is a very large chunk of it
>The Melbourne declines to date are overall more moderate than those in 2008 and 2011 but the rate of decline is faster than what occurred in 2011.

Chris Bowen has read all of your post and insights and says, I quote, This prompted an angry response from Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen, who issued a statement slamming “economically irresponsible doom-and-gloom predictions” and implying OP was conflicted.

>>11797572
>tfw hes still here

Can't wait for this shitty country to become China 2.0 when Chang and Co literally buy up entire cities at the height of the recession

>>11797958
No Fren, I been watching tv, and loving it.

>>11796978
Yes, if people are living in them.
What we have now is a bunch of absentee home owners who leave them empty because they plan to sell them in a year or so.
Even worse, Sydney's population would've SHRUNK if it wasn't for temporary migration.
If Australia's economy shits the bed and those millions of non-citizen workers leave, we'll be fucked.

OP do you think I would have good prospects if I got a B.S. in Geology/Geosciences and went to work in the Perth in the mines? I already have a B.A., in a humanities major and am considering further study.

>>11798570
Short term yes, long term it gets tricky. When mining booms subside demand drops for your work so you get less pay/work and likely have to move off to find work.