/biz/ - Business & Finance

Not surprisingly buyer sentiment is lower than during the GFC: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/house-prices-set-to-continue-to-fall-for-another-two-years-survey-says

42% of NSW mortgage owners will be in negative equity once prices fall by 20%, which is only 1-2 years away after falling 7% this year: https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/1/6/v/f/7/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1539928703734.png

US Fed is raising rates and the BBSW increases for Australian banks who pass on the interest rate rise to Australian mortgages: https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-interest-rate.png?s=fdtr&v=201809261820x

The Fed is expected to raise rates in December, three more next year, and one increase in 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-raises-u-s-interest-rates-sees-at-least-three-more-years-of-growth-idUSKCN1M60EE

Here's some data from previous bubbles to aid you in approximating what the value of a property today could be worth at the bubbles bottom: https://i.imgur.com/yX5AXk9.png

That's from Page 5 of this economic paper published in 2007 in Ireland by Prof. Kelly who correctly predicted the bubble and the dramatic price falls. See: http://irserver.ucd.ie/bitstream/handle/10197/38/kellym_workpap_001.pdf

For comparison Sydney rose over 100% since 2009: https://www.yourmortgage.com.au/mortgage-news/sydney-home-prices-have-risen-over-100-since-2009/255029/

This too shows the peak to troughs of bubbles: https://imgur.com/a/yKrpe6C

Interview here where he debates a property bull with tears in his eyes trying to help people see what was going to happen to the Irish economy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0

>>11701577

What is a clearance rate?

How can I become more educated in Australia property bubble burst?

>>11701692
Its the rate of successful sales of properties taken to auction on a given weekend.

You just read newspaper articles, twitter commentary from economists, /biz/

Clearance rate for QLD yesterday was 35%, I want it to come down more though

straya revolution when

>>11701780
Literally never. Australia is authoritarian as fuck and most people are dumb as shit. Australia is 100x more likely to devolve into a fascist banana republic than it is to have a revolution.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/massive-wealth-is-no-defence-against-sydneys-plunging-property-market/news-story/a725c620153bd70bcb25b49b4ce09cb8

Rich people taking an L

Canada isn't far off from this.

Good. Who the fuck would want to live in Australia anyway?

>>11701828
Most of the Western world was riding off the post-GFC low interest rates normalised by the US Fed and accumulating massive debt that could not be repaid unless everybody experienced massive wage growth.

>Oops we forgot the wage growth. Now you just have massive debts that you can't pay.

W-What about inflation? Won't that just reduce my debt in real terms?

>NO! You need inflation to touch your wage, you don't just get wage inflation because inflation may or may not exist!

>>11701824
>>11701824
>>11701824
>>11701824

Us real estate is also FINISHES as pointed out in my thread

Australia has even worse demographics and will be falling from higher highs so it will likely be worse than 2008 America and on par with 2009 Ireland or Iceland

Can anyone with aspergers confirm we're going down?

>>11701994
We are going down, this much is clear.

>>11701994
https://www.domain.com.au/product/house-price-report-september-2018/

>House prices in Sydney fell 3.1 per cent over the September quarter, reaching a median of $1,101,532. This is the third consecutive quarter of house price declines for the capital city, with the median dropping 6.5 per cent year-on-year.

>The median house price in Melbourne decreased 3.9 per cent over the September quarter to $852,980. The capital city also saw a decrease of 3.2 per cent annually.

Lol you blokes crack me up.
We're gonna drop maybe 1 or 2 points more down and then we will flat line. That's what will happen.

>>11701871
Either this is bait or you are the dumbest cunt on this board and you don't actually know shit about Australia and how good it is

>>11702027
Where will the buyers magically conjure up credit from? Credit tightened a lot more than 1 or 2 percent, more like 20-40%

https://www.baka.com.au/money/borrowing/one-in-five-people-with-a-mortgage-wouldn-t-qualify-today-broker-warns-20180719-p4zscl.html

>“Up to 20 per cent of people who took a loan out two or three years ago would not qualify for that loan today. In the last six months lenders have had this lightbulb moment of what ‘responsible lending’ means.”

>“Many of those people now wouldn’t qualify for a new 30-year loan,” Morgan says. This is because APRA is also requiring a serviceability assessment on new contracts where total repayments over the life of the loan would be higher, even if month-to-month they’re lower.”

>>11702095
Did I strike a nerve, kangaroo fucker? Australia is expensive, hot, overly isolated, culturally weak, and full of weird bugs/animals.

>>11702133
https://www.sMH.com.au/money/borrowing/one-in-five-people-with-a-mortgage-wouldn-t-qualify-today-broker-warns-20180719-p4zscl.html

>>11702142
2bh i love it when the S M H filter BTFOs aussie news links

>>11702231

>>11702253

>>11702267
FUCK OFF WE'RE FULL

>>11702267
FUCK OFF WE'RE FULL

>>11702133
Houses just won't sell. The market volume will dry up. You'd need a lot of people to hit the market in order for the prices to drop.
There's a lot of Aussies who will hit the market now, and next year, who will be buying a house because they've been locked out. Because now and the next few years is the time to buy.

>>11702267
FUCK OFF WE'RE FULL

>>11701871
Not an Aussie, but if I could afford the rent I'd at least consider moving to one of the urban centers. Only real downside would be that there aren't any top-tier jobs like most other world-class cities have. I'm not sure I could name a major Australian company.

>>11702439
>Houses just won't sell

It isn't optional. Death, Disaster, Debt, and Divorce. They force sales. If people could choose when they sold they'd never take a loss.

How likely is this to drag down europe+canada+US etc..canada here, really want to see this bubble pop...literal shithole crack dens in vancouver are now going for 2,000,000+...

>>11702439
Have a look at how many houses are resold 2 years after the previous sale. Relationships fold and stuff is sold at a loss just to break away.
Death forces sale, especially when the people who want the cash dont care about the selling price. Unservicabe loans also force sales especially for overly leveraged investors trying to refinance.

Now I understand why aussieland has one of the highest rates of suicide for a developed country

>>11702439
No one buys a house this year if they think it will be 30k cheaper next year. Welcome to deflation.

>>11702465
yeah but what is that rate versus the rate of new buyers? is it significant enough to cause a huge downturn? the only realistic thing that causes housing prices to crash is mass unemployment or natural disaster.

UBS downgraded Australia's housing bubble from 2nd in the world to 9th this past year. RBA are freezing interest rates and general sentiment is a cool off. I would like a crash but i cant see any catalyst for it. We dont have junk loans like the US did, default rates are under 2%.. there is nothing there other than the fact people are overleveraged to indicate an issue. Assuming interest rates stay fixed the leverage problem doesnt even matter that much, we live in a debt economy these days anyway

>>11702662
Rate rises in US affect everyone because we all borrow from them in the first world. Your interest rates go up, Canadians can't borrow as much, prices come down, Canadians default, prices down down.

Ontop of that I read your country was reducing lending to investors who were relying on equity to borrow. More downward pressure.

Ontop of that you banned foreign investment in some ways. More downward pressure.

Ontop of that Chinese capital controls means less investment into Canada. More downward pressure.

>>11702820
Europoo here. How would a US stock crash affect us? Not that I expect one now, I actually think you'll squeeze another 2 years out of it.

>>11702820
rising rates will not cause a crash. can you people get this through your heads? if interest rates rise, people will simply extend the amortization period of their loans instead of defaulting. it's ridiculous to think that small interest rate increases will cause crashes.

>>11702820

>Rate rises in US affect everyone

To some extent but not enough to trigger a collapse. In Australia for example the big 4 borrow less than 40% from overseas, the rest domestically. And that 40% is not just the US, its europe, asia, everywhere. So ultimately the us makes up maybe 20-25% of lending, a 1-2% rate rise in the US therefore would only change Aus rates by less than half a %

>>11702771

The people who aren't forced to sell cannot 'hold the line' with prices. They get dragged down by the forced sales.

Mass unemployment is a consequence of the downturn not a cause. Look at Ireland and America.

Too many people get shifted into property related occupations during a bubble and once the bubble deflates those people earn less or get fired and now the unemployment number begins to ascend.

What drives the crash is a reduction of credit, because people would gladly keep borrowing even if they know they can't repay it, just so they can have the chance to flip the property to the next person who borrows more than they can repay. The greater fool theory in effect.

>>11702838
US stock market crash leads to EU stock market crash due to contagion. US recession leads to EU recession as US demand for EU goods drops. Negative feedbacks everywhere.

When USA is doing well the whole first world is doing well. When it isnt, the whole first world isnt.

The market betting on housing will be the downfall:
https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank/about-us/group-funding/articles/CBA%2520Covered%2520Bonds%2520-%2520Introduction%2520Sep%25202017.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiLysmJs8veAhUGb30KHVnhBKwQFjABegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw1_HMXW0Wv7hYc1FVgub14y

21.2% of the AAA bond issued by the biggest bank in australia is interest only. This transforms the AAA to junk status if IO defaults massively.
This is the same mistake as the usa during gfc.

>>11702841
the rate of 'forced' sales must supersede the natural forces of new buyers. and even in that case, it must be far greater than the rate of new buyers to cause any significant downturn in a small period of time. mass unemployment is preceded by economic and market turmoil. mass unemployment does not happen just because. Ireland and america had specific reasons for their property bubbles, see toxic loans.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank/about-us/group-funding/articles/CBA%2520Q1%25202018%2520PO.PDF&ved=2ahUKEwiLysmJs8veAhUGb30KHVnhBKwQFjACegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw3cANe_5wflRniGxylA4fQk

>>11702839
New borrowers cannot continue to borrow the same amounts as they did yesterday when rates rise. That means they have to bid less for properties than they would have yesterday. That means prices come down.

Also defaulting on a debt isnt a whimsy choice. You physically run out of capacity to repay the debt and your house is foreclosed on. Banks and 2nd tier lenders are not charity cases. If you stop paying your bills you will be forced to sell.

>>11702860
We have toxic loans, they're called liar loans.

Unemployment was not caused by toxic loans, it was caused by a reduction in demand for property.

The reduction in demand for property is not first started by unemployment, but by the lack of credit.

For people that are sure of a crash, what are you doing to profit off it? Shorting banking stocks? Shorting real-estate ETFs? Obviously once we bottom out picking up property will be ideal but there are going to be fucking tonnes of people with that same idea, easier to make money on the way down than at the bottom i think

>>11702868
depending on the terms of their mortgage, the typical being 5 year fixed, that is more than enough time to build equity. enough equity to simply increase the amortization period to compensate for any rate increases 5 years down the road. also, banks will work with you to avoid default. banks know that forcing people into selling is not good for business, especially during a downturn, and will offer alternatives before the last ditch foreclosure is imminent.

>>11702878
so you believe that the 2008 recession was caused by spontaneity and not the turmoil of the toxic loans which crashed the market?

>>11702857
Recent buyers will be BTFO - looking forward to it!
>>11702841
Well said
>>11702860
You shouldn't be allowed a bank account, let alone a mortgage.

>>11702879
>Obviously once we bottom out picking up property will be ideal but there are going to be fucking tonnes of people with that same idea,

Most won't have access to capital. It's an obvious play but it happens in every bubble. Most people don't have liquidity to do this.

>>11702891
sorry i have both. you're not my banker -_-

Good. Imagine having a shortage of homes in one of the biggest countries / with the lowest population densities.
Theres clearly been some unnecessary government involvement. It's the free markets turn now.

>>11702886
Caused by the tightened lending standards. Symptoms =/= cause. Subprime mortgages were symptoms of relaxed lending.

>>11702879
Short banks and mortgage reinsurers - QBE and Genworth
REA is still probably worth a short
Minimal exposure to AUD - assets off shore as dollar plunges once bank stress

They're my bets

>>11702857
You cant be serious. The exact AAA junk tricks again? This has to be some oversimplification.

>>11702902
because the regulators were unaware to the extent of issue. had they known that the problem was so endemic they would've had, and could have relaxed though measures and spread it over a period of time to minimize the shock effect. but they didn't. they kept giving loans and at the point where they realized they were in trouble they pulled back too hard and too fast which precipitated the recession. the economy was going fine, the problem was the reaction to the toxic effects of the loans were not minimized.

>>11702879
Market im irrational longer than ugg remain solvent, etc.

Let's check again in 6 months

>>11702924
People have short memories. Half of the people are dumber than the median person. The median person doesn't even understand any of this.

>>11701811
>Australia is authoritarian as fuck

>>11702773
>mortgage stress continues to increase as cost of living goes up and wages stagnate.
>Interest rates go up even though RBA keeps them on hold due to increase in international finance rates.
>Borrowers can't refinance due to having a lower borrowing power after the Royal commission compared to before.
>Forced to sell into negative equity because they can't afford the loan and can't refinance.

How I see it playing out. People have borrowed more than they should at the lowest interest rates we've ever had and haven't really thought what will happen when they inevitably go up sometime.

>>11702857
i cant view that page :(

>>11702918
QBE’s LMI acquisition has turned into a problem child.

>>11701780
Australians are happy eating shit despite living in an extremely blatant plutocracy/oligarchy.

bump for IO loans converting to principle + interest, overseas lending for the big banks, mortgage "stress" and salty boomers

>>11703718
And our oriental friends not completing settlement on units that are already close to underwater

>>11703728
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/11/chinese-specufestors-mass-defaulting-apartments/

DERETE DIS RIGHT RUCKING ROW

>>11703799
Checked!

How do I short the housing market?

>>11703904
Short an ASX listed fund that is highly leveraged with property?

Kek, know of a few boomers who bought 4-5 houses using UNREALIZED gains on each property as equity.

They are going to be BTFO

>>11704262
Family friend got 10 properties at least under her belt all negatively geared on IO. She inherited a bunch of assets because her parents bought when property was 15k. Like all boomers she thought she was some kind of investment mogul.

>>11704302
>>11704262
It is gonna be an hell of a party!

>>11704332
you fucking cunts are gonna bail me out or ill fucking sook about it

>>11703087
Digger culture is fucking dead and the majority of the population are now braindead leftists who live in Urban centres.
What the fuck do you mean by
>

https://www.sMh.com.au/business/companies/lendlease-investors-brace-for-more-pain-after-ratings-review-20181111-p50fco.html

>Lendlease investors are bracing for another tough day when trading resumes on Monday after the ratings agency, Moody's Investor Services, issued a credit outlook downgrade to the global infrastructure and developer.

>News of the hit led to an 18.33 per cent drop in the group's share price to $14.25, with about $1.8 billion wiped off the market value.

LOL 18 fucking percent

House will be on the market next month, I can't wait to finally sell

oi cunts. shut your mouth and pay my welfare

cheers cunts
le NEET

>>11704663
its hard to get a good night sleep until the cooling off period expires and the full settlement is paid. especially with all these retards being unable to secure credit. i know from experience.

will this affect EU?

>>11704720
Yes, all the Chinese will start moving there instead

>>11702841
This is verging on being a full load of shit.

Your probably the guy who said Warragamba will never be full again.

>>11704522
Thats fuck all, have a look at what RFG has dropped.

Thats the yardstick of discretionary spending.

>>11702463
BHP
RIO

Dumb fuck. Literally 200B+ dollar companies.

>>11702839
Dumb rat brained fuck. No idea about economics.

>property market is one market not many smaller markets

Shits literally fine if you didn’t make boomer teir investments at the top of a bubble - look up Japanese how the housing bubble in the 90s effected areas that didn’t have over inflated prices to begin with

>>11702840
>we have to raise rates to stop our currency buying jack shit
>poof

>>11704522
Still above its book value.
All other real estate grouos are roughly at or below book value, minus goodman due to high amounts if cash and fuck all debt. (Its still overpriced at PB of 2.2)

LLC was a great short. Rural funds is another

Gonna see an adjustment but it’s healthy - markets already healing banks have fixed their lending practices and properties are more rationally priced. Can someone point out the negative for the avarage consumer?

>>11704756
what the fuck are you talking about

>>11704782
lots of companies drop by lots of things, 20% is fucking huge for a blue chip company like lendlease you ignorant poof

>>11704828
You must be spending too much time in that dutch oven out there at Elizabeth.

Your mind is roasted and raving like a teen at splendour.

Go away boy, you bother me.

>>11704827
Sydney is off 7.4% YoY
Say another 25% comes off, which would only take us back to early 2014 prices, do you think people that have lost all their equity will find it healthy? Your average consumer may perhaps not.
How will the banks' balance sheets look?
Do you think Australia's private debt is healthy?
As for
>markets [sic] already healing - check Sydney's preliminary clearance rates from this weekend. Kek!

>>11702027
But they're already down over 7% and the falls are accelerating.

>>11704850
Yep, probably time we all consult the Jim Jones way to fix everything.

>>11704842
I recognise that’s not an ideal situation for the avarage homeowner just trying to have a fair go lol, but really we all know this comes down to mortgage lending practice over the last ten years fuck the banks balance sheets.
To many cunts read Jan Sommers once and decided that being exposured to a range of economic risks over many years was a great idea

>>11704842
If they try and take away negative gearing for new investment properties (doing it restrospectively will crash the market) it’s likely to create a mini bull run imo

thank god my mortgage is paid off

>>11704897
How many times did u get dropped on ur head
Itll simply mean there is a big difference in new homes and old homes price.

>>11704903

>>11704897
Sadly, you are probably right! And it seems certain that Labor will win convincingly. Recently, he doubled down on plans to grandfather NG for all but new builds - so it seems likely that this will occur. Also agree with your above post that lending standards and oversight by the regulators has been astoundingly weak

>>11704909
I don’t think you understood what I meant by “new investment properties” but yeah I’m not super bright haha

Investors aren't gonna want much of NG when they're making a CL. Or maybe they're that retarded

This is the simple hard fact of who will feel the pain.

In the past with downturns and bubble pops the people most exposed where in their 20's or 30's. They could ride it out or if the faltered had time to start again.

This time round it is people in their 40's and 50's who are riskily exposed. These folk don't have time to ride it out nor do they have time to start again if they go belly up.

This is called the reality of it.

Your fancy graphs and statistics fail to explain the human cohort who are most at risk.

>>11704953
I recently sold someone’s (in the 40 - 50 bracket) investment property without advertising (property wasn’t even listed just called them up and asked if they were willing to sell as I had buyer) - cunts still had the hide to ask me for a reduction in commission. Fucking saved their lives, wonder if they handle their fucking gp

>>11704953
It's why the bubble will most likely reflate. This government taxes on property and property alone. Same model as HK. Same government practices like value capture. Look at HK prices....

>>11704946
On the nabtrade podcast apparently 1/5 of people in a survey thought they could claim NG losses on their PPOR. There's clearly a lot of people out there who don't understand what they've signed up for

>>11702773
the catalyst is going to be when the current wave of interest-only loans expires and they are not able to be renewed due to new government regulation limiting the number of IO loans banks can have on the books

When the investors cannot afford the 40% increase in repayments when it switches to principal + interest the banks will be forced to foreclose en masse

>>11704953
pic related

Maybe I need to start getting my money out of Ratesetter

>tfw my mum still has a massive mortgage at age 60
>she spent hundreds of thousands on renovations that she couldn't afford
>she pulled out a completely fine kitchen to put in a new one with the most expensive appliances on the market
>now she's talking about selling and downsizing to stop being a debt slave after only 5 or so years

This is what normie boomers are like. The entire market is fucked beyond belief.

>>11704962
How are you finding it at 'the coalface' so to speak? There doesn't appear to be huge awareness with most of my cohort yet.
>>11704968
There was another quote that I read which, like the one you related, made me go what - something like 30% of people with an Interest Only loan - had no idea that they weren't paying back principle. Seems astounding

>>11704986
~40% of loans were IO only. Their is now a cap to increase IO loans by 10% p.a. So for the 40% of loans who want to roll over, most will have to go and pay the principle.

in Ireland the IO loans as a proportion was only about 15%. I.e. those retarded speculating Irish were speculating much less than Australians.

>>11705016
>How are you finding it at 'the coalface' so to speak? There doesn't appear to be huge awareness with most of my cohort yet.

Most normies maybe read the daily tele or listen to the radio to/from work. Not a lick of actual research or analysis. They will be like "wtf i thought property always goes up" for years.

>>11705032
if you foreclose 40% of houses the market is going to shit itself. the natural turnover rate in australia is only around 6%

>>11704986
Is there a rough date for when most of the loans expire? Also, how can you short the housing market?

>>11705051
most of them are due to expire now and 2020 i think, can't recall exactly

>>11705048
Nobodies gonna foreclose on 40%, some will just pay the principle but some will sell. But it'll cause an increase in supply for sure.

>>11705059
even if just 10% of them are foreclosed it will still fuck up the market entirely. and it's probably going to be way more than 10%.

>>11705051

>>11705043
There's a 25yo guy at my work talking about buying a studio apartment in Melbourne as an investment property.

I told him it's stupid, but he still thinks that the housing market always goes up.
I think he bought some BTC near the top as well.

>>11705067
So IO rollover started this year, people discovered they cant refinance, thats what we're hearing about now.

Next year it'll be more than this year, 2020 will be more than this year, then 2021 less than this year.

>>11705068
Everybody knows a hundred of these people. It's everywhere. When fucking retards who can't tie their shoes are talking about what's a good investment and what isn't, you're in a bubble.

>>11705048
This will never happen.

>>11705054
Off the top of my head it is 2022 for peak rollovers of IO.
>>11705051
Tough gig as retail investor. Obv shorting the banks etc. Long dated out of the money puts - but, one wonders what the govt can throw at it to kick the can. Tough call re timing. REA looks like it may be worth a short.

>>11705067
Fuck! I was way out.

>crashing this housing market
>with no survivors

>>11705078
in any given year in australia 6% of all properties and sold on average. If just 10% of those 40% are foreclosed you're almost doubling supply.

>>11705081
Honestly I'm too much of a pussy to short anything, but I'm thinking of selling my ASX300 ETF shares for a small-cap ETF to avoid exposure to the banks.

>>11705067
OH AND SOMETHING YOU WON'T NOTICE UNLESS YOU LOOK FOR IT BUT I'M COOL SO I'LL JUST TELL YOU

See all the originating loans in 2015? How most of them rollover in 2020? People who bought in 2015 are already either at a loss or breaking even or barely ahead, by 2019 they'll mostly be at a loss, by 2020 they'll be in negative equity.

Most of them will be in negative equity in 2020 and most of them will be unable to refinance to IO. So they'll have to decide whether to pay a mortgage for a depreciating IP or to sell (either then or before then)

Options:

1. People pay the principle of a depreciating asset. They make a capital loss. They're losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. They have to cut back on other spending and the economy see's a lot of unemployed or underemployed as people stop consuming.

2. People sell the property. It sells for beneath what they paid for it. They make a loss. They owe the lender the difference and it either comes out of their savings, equity or security. To pay this difference they need to find the cash or sell the property that's being used for equity or security. This means they now have to sell other properties they didn't want to sell. Prices come down even harder because they were forced to sell once for the IO investment and couldn't refuse lowball offers, then they're forced to sell again to cover the difference and couldn't refuse lowball offers. This at a time when stocks are already piling up from 2018/2019.

>>11701811

Yep, our country is lazy as fuck. Literally no chance of anything 'revolutionary' occurring. The closest thing you'll see to a revolution here is Cronulla.

>>11705117
I'd LOVE to see some stats on how many IO loans are backed by their boomer parents using the boomers house as equity

>>11705154
It'd be fascinating to know. Anecdotally, four friends of mine have purchased houses in the last 18 months (almost at peak) and three of them had parental help either with cash deposits or going guarantor

>>11705154
Bought an apartment in Melbourne in early 2017. How stuffed am I?

>>11705170
What floor is it on?
If it's lower than about the fourth floor you'll probably survive when you jump out the window.

>>11705154
>>11705164

A lot of people who couldnt afford in Sydney and Melbourne will have used their parents equity as collateral. Theyll then have to make the decision of paying off a depreciating asset or selling their parents home to pay off the debt.

Yikes. I'm sure Sydney will be worse hit because the ratio of incomes to prices were so much higher. So when they're in negative equity they're in literal hundreds of thousands negative.

>>11705170
u fuct m8

Honestly expecting prices to go to 2011-2012 levels in sydney and melbourne. Rest of the country will fall but not as dramatically- but rise far more when keynesian policy makes me rich.

>m-mum, d-dad, we need to sell ramsay street
>ITS NOT MY FAULT YOU TOLD ME TO GET ON THE PROPERTY LADDER

>>11705179
>>11705204
Damn there goes my life in the bin

>>11705099
I'm thinking of going with EX20, is it a good idea? It tracks the ASX200 minus the ASX20 and has 0.25% fees.

>People thought/think this is sustainable

MOONInG

>>11705251
Would you consider taking some currency risk (given that Aus looks like it'll have a tough few years) and going IXJ etc?

I was enjoying getting 12% returns on ratesetter but this is making me extremely nervous

I have 180k sitting in the bank, should i buy gold?

>>11705265
I've already got about half of my shares in IVV, I'm only really looking to change up my VAS shares.

IXJ does seem like a clever hedge though, because it seems like medical shares wouldn't drop much in a crisis.

>tfw sold all australian shares 2 months ago

HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

if you want a laugh just google young aussie property investor

must be 100 articles on "while some gen y are wasting their lives... this industrious young man has 8 properties and is worth $1.5m, though he admits its all debt at the moment"

>>11705376
https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-25yearold-with-eight-investment-properties-20151020-gk9kbj/
https://www.aussie.com.au/blog/3-properties-before-21/
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/dont-buy-into-housing-bubble-bullst-says-property-tycoon-nathan-birch/news-story/96a221df4fb5910b0b0118f5ac7a20f6
https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-gen-y-couple-from-sydney-with-28-properties-and-an-income-of-300000-a-year-20170322-gv3otb/

>>11705388
Checked
And we can only hope that there are a few more Kates out there https://www.domain.com.au/news/what-to-do-when-property-bubbles-burst-35-million-in-the-red-20160223-gn086p/

>>11705376
https://ytcropper.com/cropped/hY5be80f3424efc

>>11701577
Anon from /pol/ here as the thread was mentioned.

Became debt free this year in ausland with home loan paid off. Happy I'm slightly less of a good goy now.

Everything in this thread scares me and I'm worried for my fellow ausbros though ;_;

>>11705414
>https://ytcropper.com/cropped/hY5be80f3424efc
Holy Shit!
They're 1.2 in debt on a 1.5 portfolio and are up for two new builds!!! Insanity. I hope that they've kept enough for kneepads.And both earn below average wage. The banks are nuts. This has to end badly

>>11705457
Congrats. Everyone here will make it because they won't get blindsided.

In addition to the derivatives market timebomb, there is another catch for interest only loans - in the event of a bankruptcy/insolvency, the funds deposited in an "offset" account is not recoverable as they are not insured under a standard savings account. lol.

>>11705472
Wouldn't it just get absorbed into the mortgage and pay down the debt?

>>11705489
that's what they want the goys to think but that is not the case

people also think there's a $250k guarantee per person per bank but there actually isn't

>>11705463
They also "invest" in shitcoins.

https://twitter.com/roypallesen?lang=en

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e77LHNpqhE8

>>11705524
Forgot pic.

>>11705524
At least they didn't invest in Chainlink.

>>11702095
Australia has great gifts from Nature and is a great country. However kangaroo fuckers have been historically lazy & arrogant banking on their mining & real-estate industries while blissfully forgetting to focus on innovation in other areas. In one line "complacency killed it"

>>11705524
>https://twitter.com/roypallesen?lang=en
Top Kek! Where the fuck is his accent from? She sounds more aussie than him. There has to be a whole fucking bunch of these clowns out there. Bring it!

>>11705535
Ouch!
>>11705539
Partly that, partly corruption. And in fairness, agriculture has counted for a bit

>>11702463
Corporate culture is like straight from what used to be 90s in US except few progressive startups in Syd / Melb desperately trying to create a SV out of nowhere. Atlassian / Atlassian / Atlassian that's all.

>>11702879
Selling my magic the gathering cards to the USA and keeping the USD in my paypal account until AUD drops to like 55-65c.

Its not just about making money in such s scenario. Ive moved all my super investments into non australian shares or property funds.

>>11704986
This and wage-growth has been over last few years. US Economy has way more depth due to tech sectors being solid employers. Tech sector here is almost non-existent. CSIRO and Data61 are struggling for funding etc.

>>11705414
>>11705463

I tried to find the article on a similar couple but no luck.
Money magazine originally interviewed this couple and said they were geniuses due to holding around 15 properties when they were around 25 years old.
A couple of years later they did a follow-up on them and used them as a cautionary tale as the same couple had heavily invested in mining towns (pre-bust) and were now a couple of million in debt even after selling all holdings.

My previous rental property I was living in, the couple who were leasing it were doing the same high risk IO strategy (they were used as a reference from a local mortgage broker, found them on a google search).
The apartments in that block originally sold for ~500k, when I moved out last year they were selling for between 350k-400k. It's a great way to burn a shitload of money. They would've burnt close to 100k as their repayments would have been IO so their loan would've remained close to the original purchase price.

>>11705604
Just to clarify that "this" couple isn't the same as the couple from >>11705414 - im talking about a different couple

>>11705619
>https://www.domain.com.au/news/what-to-do-when-property-bubbles-burst-35-million-in-the-red-20160223-gn086

>>11705648
>In mid-2011, Moranbah’s median price was $750,000, Domain Group data shows. In 2015, this plummeted to $180,000 as the mining boom came to an abrupt halt.

>>11705698
Fuck yes, $180k Melbourne houses when

>>11705081
I’m just a brainlet but holy goddamn fuck if this isn’t the most boomer-lingo riddled post I’ve ever seen

Back to Linkedin with ye

>>11705809
KYS

Don't watch this unless you want to panic

https://youtu.be/FIhT03zZr-g

>>11705698
imagine the boomer tears