/biz/ - Business & Finance

Jews, yes

Chemical imbalance in the economy's brain. Yes, relapses are common.

they took a 3rd of the money supply out of circulation.

>>11495907
Bankers crashed the market, it was highly leveraged, there had been instances of credit shortages (panics). Every normal joe got wiped the fuck out, consumers stopped consuming, prices went down but sales went down aswell, causing small businesses to go out of business etc etc etc.

I hope it happens again so I can be a bitcoin god

>>11495907
deflationary spiral, probably won't happen again

Poor diet, lack of excerise, lack of social interactiona and a dead-end job is what caused my great depression

>>11495965
Every big crash we had followed a massive monetary expansion (29, 87, 01, 08). So it's basically the state's fault.
> muh bankers did it.
bankers are nothing more than game balls within the finance system. they will always find a way to bypass trust laws etc. You cant change that. But you can change the law.
Monetary expansion leads to people having money they didn't earn, combined with low market interest rate (always the case in the end phase of a bull cycle) pressures people to invest in higher risk assets. the low rate also enables zombie companies to survive.
Now when the prime rate is raised, companies will go bankrupt, jobs erased, and investments liquidated (look into the history. every. fucking. time) Then people sell their assets further to buy consumption goods, like food.
thoughts anyone?

>>11496049
cocaine did it for me

>>11496171
this. the fed mathematically creates bubbles and causes crashes whenever they feel like it.

>>11496197
the only thing I'm not sure of is whether they do it knowingly, out of keynesian dumbness, or because of political pressure.

>>11495907
It's already happening.
>trade wars w/ Canada, Mexico, China, Europe
>massive soup lines (EBT)
>global militarization on the rise, just take a look at how much orders Lockheed have
>commodity prices rising
>corporate, government, and consumer debt is all high
>lack of productivity growth
>massive federal reserve balance sheet, and little room for rates to drop when shit hits the fan

We're likely going into a double dip deflationary depression, similar to the recession of 1937-38, that followed the Great Depression. Many parallels to be drawn, as I've outlined above. The only difference between the Great Depression and the Great Recession is that the government was quick to act, and deleveraged the economy (levered the Fed/Government).

If you wan't to make it through, put your money into Short-Medium term government bonds yielding above 3% at the moment. Also, physical assets are a good bet. If things get really bad and we have to finance more of our debt externally, we could see something like stagflation. I really wouldn't put more than 30-40% of your money in stocks, literally everyone and their mother is buying ETFs because they are FOMOing the 300%+ gains out of the last recession, although a lot of that was driven by interest rate policy & borrowing, which is cyclical (more income now for less later).

I'd probably have like 30-40% stocks, 5-10% commodities, 5-10% gold, and rest in bonds, with a bias towards short term debt, since the yield curve is pretty flat.

>>11495907
Lot's of debt and a stock market bubble. Yes, it can. It's actually much worse today. Even bigger bubble and even more debt.

>>11496233

Yeah this guy has nice advice and sounds all smart like and shit, but you could also just buy LINK

>>11495907
why don't men dress like this anymore?

>>11495907
jews and yes

>>11496328
degeneration of values, soul, spirit, the negrofication of america

>>11496233
isn't policy significantly better this time though?
many countries have lowkey already taken deflationary measures I think

>>11496328
Global warming.

hoover intervened in the market and crashed it.

>>11495907
Too many people taking out loans to buy stocks. Then eventually it all fell on them.

>>11496171
Well said, the numbers are ridiculous. Anywhere from 9 to 11 out of 12 hard landings depending on how you measure it where rising interest rate policy has been followed by a recession of some kind. Only soft landing I would say, where they raised rates and the economy did well was 1995.

>>11495907
The FED created the great depression. To understand the great depression you have to study the happy twenties. This is only for high IQ people so good luck.

>>11496383
Well much of the growth of emerging markets in this bull market has been financed by developed market debt (USD) & fueled by cheap commodities. They borrow developed market currency (USD, Euro) because of low perceived interest rates, spend it on commodities (USD is the reserve currency so they usually end up borrowing USD), and open up factories to produce goods (they can compete because lower wages), and export these goods back to developed markets and their citizens.

Normally this wouldn't be a problem, but since we are literally lifting these countries out of poverty and they depend on inflows of foreign capital (USD), a large percentage of economic activity is financed by USD and they are usually pretty leveraged in general. The problems show up when the USD deflates. Since they have to pay back their debts in USD, and a large portion of their revenues are in their local currencies, inflation of their currency or deflation of the USD causes a lot of problems. As investors pull money out of emerging markets, they sell the emerging market's currency, and move into USD so the problems get even worse. The local population feeling the wealth effect from foreign inflows, has probably overspent during that golden period, and when domestic inflation causes their purchasing power to decrease, the companies suffer even further, and foreign debt piles up.

Worst offenders are probably Turkey, Argentina, and even countries like India to a certain extent.

>>11497013
Just read Ray Dalio's new book to get a high level overview. He describes the circumstances surrounding the Great Depression very well it's easy to understand if you have basic economic knowledge/terminology. The book is free on his website, principles.com

It's called: A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises. Pretty much covers every relevant recession in the last century.

>>11495930

>>11495938
based schizophrenic

>>11497133
thanks anon, very informative post

>>11495907
Jews, yes

>>11495907
it will happen again in about 10 years

>>11497215
is there anyone worst than boomers

>>11495907
it was because the current leading crypto was turned into a "store of value" not meant to be used to buy stuff. let's not let it happen again.

How hard a common man with no debt/savings and with basic set of skills (so he can get a job) will suffer from this? What industry will lose the most jobs?

>>11495907
Heavy bag holders persuading everyone to invest into a scam like chainlink

>>11497674
industries which are already marginal from heavy foreign competition (like automobiles) will be hit hardest, tariffs will only make their death slower and more painful

>>11496197
>Fed

all kikery insinuations aside, they just respond to the fluctuations and trends in the economy, stimulating or pulling the brakes on the performance to avoid a bigger dip. Sometimes they lose track of reality and pump record low interest rates and pump virtually free money into the markets via QE and then blame everyone else. Guess that's just a response to the global inequality and century high debts that forces people not to spend so they have to pump it with extreme measures for the economy to limp on instead of letting it die and processes resolving themselves in a less dramatic way

>>11495907
greed
high information asymmetry
diminishing rates of new market participants after public had access to markets for first time and was exhausted
a fall in the money supply putting downward pressure on nominal values
high debt to gdp ~300% combined with deflation due to a drop in the money supply, making loans ever more impossible to repay as they are priced nominally

could it happen again?

maybe my single favorite dynamic playing into the shitstorm of forces that caused the crash and great depression was the Federal Reserve purchasing $1 Billion + of government securities in the early 1930s in an attempt to save the market, which was 2.5x its holdings at that time. basically the Fed printed money to try to save the market, more money than ever before. But this actually caused the money supply to drop by 3 times as much because the public did not trust this move with so much debt already and began hoarding cash (there was no FDIC yet, that came a year later as a "temporary program" much like suspension of gold convertability which can cause similar "problems"), making bankers more averse to lending as they needed deposits to cover their loans (they couldn't immediately flip them to Fannie Mae and Freddie and whoever else because they were still banks, not just a transparent front for the central planners).

banking was initially pretty good. while being prone to localized states of corruption as any human institution is it was basically a decentralized mechanism to price the risky use of capital in human activities in pursuit of a profit for doing so in a positive way. nowadays it's just a big game of make believe, far far detached from anything approximating the informed and decentralized competitive pricing of risk. could it happen again? well, we went even bigger this time but I don't see why not. people being less informed about it than in the olden days is the only reason it hasn't yet