/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>11222666
you're right. there's probably some room for a decline, in some U.S. markets that got too hot, and definitely possibly in Canada and Australia. But if you live in flyover country, no there will not be a crash anywhere near 2008 any time soon.

Prices probably won't go up as fast as they have over the past few years, but they're only going up. There's just a lot of bitter, poorfag, victim complex cope on /biz/ in general though, so don't be too harsh on them.

>>11222666
>>11222709

but 95% of the posts will disagree with you, and that's why they'll stay poor. nice trips btw

Except the housing market is already falling.
Houses around me we're selling for 30K above asking in less than 1 week.
my neighbor was asking 430k and was now about to sell his home for 360k after 4 months.

In California, home sales are declining fast.

sorry bud but Trump is building wall and stopping visa loopholes and we electing him again for 4 more years in 2020

>>11222772
Because those prices were literally retarded

>>11222772
summer ended... this happens every year, and you can't extrapolate what will happen based on a month change that everyone knows happens because fewer people shop for houses right after school has started.

>>11222666
It will crash dumb goy. They need to buy more land and charge us rent for it.

>>11222772
>In California, home sales are declining fast.
Because they're buying homes in Nevada instead.

>>11222790
I agree.
These houses were worth 300k tops.
I got mine for 100k under asking and I still feel like I overpaid


>>11222794
It's been a few seasons though.
Not just summer.
This shit is falling fast.

>>11222854
lol at people thinking houses are worth $300k USD.

Look at the big picture. A house is still a house, it's just dollars that aren't worth shit. QE has to end sooner or later and this time a keynsian bailout isn't on the table.

no wayyy man the commie zoomers need to buy their cheap housing!

>>11222666
>muh new paradigm
the meme chart doesn't apply only to crypto
stay poor faggot

>>11222666
>fucking checked and witnessed

We're going to see a breif buyer's market soon, next couple of years. I have been lying in wait with downpayment enough for several mortgages...wish I had enough for a condo or something, but all in due time. But OP is correct, shit is going to get nuts.

>>11222785
blue wave is a real risk friend, hedge your bets

>>11222947
I don't understand how houses are worth so much when median incomes are so much lower. They don't really match what people can realistically afford.

housing crisis solved by the Russian geniuses

>>11222666
These fools are all ready for the last crash.

>>11223081
>I don't understand how houses are worth so much when median incomes are so much lower.

It's the same reason you can have a favela next to a city.

>>11223081
because real inflation is much higher than the measly sub 2% you're told it is. don't believe me? just take a look at what actually comprises the CPI, good luck

>>11223103
Just imagine how narcissistic and depressed people who live there are? Jesus please forgive them for they know not what they do.

>>11223103
is this real?
kek

market will not crash with trump

fkn fggts

wait until 2024

>>11222666
my IQ is only 102 so ive got no clue wtf to do.

>>11223103
looks like project housing as far as the eye can see...

>>11223103
Add some trees and wide avenues and you can have a pretty decent place. Beats renting

>>11223081
widespread availability of government sponsored or implied government backed leverage combined with areas that have almost no new areas where increasing density is legal under zoning. of course buyers can always choose a different area if somewhere gets too expensive, but usually people get tied to jobs and schools, and don't want to move just for profit if it means changing schools for their kids to live in a shittier area a few towns over.

>>11223135
I agree with this statement. You can't trust any economic data because all the politicians have to doctor it to save their asses.

We're going to have to pay the piper eventually.

>>11222666
west coaster here, totally agree, people who say this don;t understand supply and demand. theres a hundred thousand new chink millionaires who want to buy a house in america or canada.
the real housing crisis is shortage of affordable units for citizens of middle class or working income.

>>11223745
>t. chink

>>11223081
International (chinese) buyers have no restrictions. In my city (boston) somethingn like a third of 1mm+ condos in some towers are owned by LLCs and unoccupied (havent applied for tax bates). Much much worse in vancouver and oz. i don’t know why we treat them different than they treat us - can’t buy property in china.

Other than my primary residence, I plan on buying several small rental properties for cheap rather than 1 big purchase. I should be able to afford a ne wine every 4 years or so. Literally dollar cost averaging my way into the market.

housing isnt particularly expensive in most of US metropolitan areas

and protip, the areas where it is expensive are actually just shitholes

>>11223963
this claim is either hilariously ironic or flat out delusional

>>11222666
Vancouver is down mid teens YoY. The next crisis will convert money to bonds and stock and wipe a net value from the ledger to set us into alternating bail in bail out cycles. Assets will be repriced relative to the smaller money supply and people with debt will be sacrificed.

>>11222666
people are literally selling their mansions in raffle style auctions here(uk) because no buyers
bubble gonna pop

>>11224004
After being up double digits every year for the last decade pretty much. Vancouver is fucked royal no matter what happens.

>>11223802
If they're unoccupied, aren't they losing money? What's China's end game?

>>11224146

Risk assessment has determined that leaving it empty it less of a risk than occupying it with tenants, people are entropy.

When you are using a house as a vehicle for triple digit percentage investment vehicle, entropy isn't something you want.

>>11222666
you assume the avg home price needs to be a million dollars, you're wrong. bitcoin was overpriced at 20k, houses are overpriced at a million. nothing but delusion is keeping them that high.

>>11224216
>entropy
this is so fucking ridiculous
>let's build a bunch of housing but let's leave it empty
as much as we treat them this way, homes are meant for living, not investment vehicles
it's crystal clear to me that we haven't learned a thing since the last time this happened. people's memories are too fucking short and IQs are too fucking low.

>>11224276

C'mon don't shoot the messenger. I don't agree with this shit any more than you do.

I only used entropy as a short hand for energy expenditure in a system; finding applicable tenants, superintendents, leaning how to DIY repair, property management and tenants rights...Are energy intensive activities.

>>11224320
You're right, apologies. I get what you're saying, but goddamn it, are we all collectively insane?

House prices have fallen 70k in the past 3 months in Seattle. Up to 200k in some areas.

>>11224377
>are we all collectively insane?

Our biology was refined on the Savannahs of Africa, mostly. We have a bunch of effective mental tools but they're all geared towards that. The world today has changed too much, too fast. We're only falling further behind, too.

>>11224377
It’s rich chinks moving their money out of China. Wagie logic doesn’t apply.

God damn you guys are idiots. Housing prices are finally getting back to 2006-2008 levels, yet pay is much higher on average. There will be no housing crash for a while. Just because shit hole California is over priced doesn’t mean the whole USA is. The 2 houses in my family just got back to “‘max housing boom price” which was fucking 10 years ago. On top of that, the lending is much more strict than simply putting down 2k on a house worth 250k because muh first time buyer.

>>11224531
>pay is much higher on average
Post proofs

>>11224531
>pay is much higher on average
maybe for the top 5-10%. Most wagies still barely getting by.

>>11224531
To add to this, the same exact square footage house im living in cost 260-280k in 2008. I still have the same exact job I did and my pay rate was 29hr. The same size sq foot house is the same 260/280k, but due to wage progress my same exact job is paying 37hr. MUCH more bang for buck. But you fucking idiot 22 year old commies don’t understand real world shit.

>>11224572
Absolute faggot, in 2006-2008 my jobs entry level pAy was 8.50hr. It’s now 11.xx he. Top out pay went from 28 an hour to 37 an hour. You guys are obvious kids who didn’t go through the recession. Minimum wage raised about 20%. Housing is finally reaching the same high levels. So housing prices are the same, But even minimum wage fagz are making 20% more
>hurrrrrrr it’s too hard to buy a house

gentrification is working, move you poorfags.

>>11224611
11 something an hour is less than 8.50 was then when you account for real inflation.

>>11224647
You still live with minorities except now you have to pay more for the privilege. (((gentrification))).

>>11224647
Exactly. If you are willing to drive 20/30 min to the city center In the USA, in the average nice city that is top 30 sized, you can buy a good house for 250k. If you can’t afford that with a wife or roommate/s your a poor fag.

>>11224682
hey dude, im not the one complaining about the housing prices near the minorities. if you don't want to live near them either it's a win-win situation? you should be encouraging gentrification with me racist cunt.

>>11222666
Any object is worth whatever someone else is willing and able to pay for it. Once everyone loses their jobs to automation no one will be able to pay for housing. Meanwhile the housing supply remains about the same. So there is massive oversupply relative to demand. Hence the crash.

The same thing happened in detroit when the jobs disappeared. You could buy a house there for $500 dollars. Soon the jobs will disappear everywhere. Why do you think this would be any different?

>>11224002
the median household income is something like $56k

housing in America is not expensive
land is plentiful
the building materials are cheap
mortgage rates are still low

lmaoing @ brainlets who think housing prices are determined by supply and demand instead of access to credit

>>11224578
>I am no longer entry level therefore all wages are higher

>Cost of living was up 2.9 percent from July 2017 to July 2018, the Labor Department reported Friday, an inflation rate that outstripped a 2.7 percent increase in wages over the same period. The average U.S. “real wage,” a federal measure of pay that takes inflation into account, fell to $10.76 an hour last month, 2 cents down from where it was a year ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/10/america-wage-growth-is-getting-wiped-out-entirely-by-inflation/?utm_term=.06d2967e1124

>>11224578
>>11224611

>houses aren’t overpriced

That’s a nice low federal funds rate. Would be a shame if something happened to it

Speaking as an architect in Melbourne Australia, houses prices have fallen for at least 9 months in a row and we are getting less clients, when i started most of our clients were off the plans chinese but now we only get boomers occasionally, it's over.

>>11222666
The housing market will crash but not by itself. We're in a massive credit bubble thanks to the Chinese not knowing basic monetary policy and blowing up their currency. Factor in all the debt levels in America and there you go, a massive crash waiting to happen. Idk why anyone is worried though, it's mostly boomers and blue collar workers who'll get rekt. There's quite a bit of money to be made in crashes if you know what you're doing.

>>11223081
because regular people aren't meant to afford shit. (((they))) will own everything and goyim will be rentcucks for the rest of their miserable lives

>>11225361
This certainly seems to be what they're doing. Everything going up, no one can save. Goyim is squeezed like a wet towel.

>>11222666
I see a lot of people on here thinking chainlink is special or that bitcoin will reach 100k
>Will spread throughout the states...
Except for a few states, the rest are third world countries.
Ultimately, if people can't afford houses, house prices will need to come down a bit or stay stagnant rather than year over year of 10%+ increases.
When people say crash, they mean stay the same or decrease slightly....
Supply of houses will come when boomers need cash to retire and downsize/move to lower cost of living areas

>>11222666
This, there will be no housing crash.
Due to subhumans immigrants and women voting, there will be a whole civilisational collapse soon.
There's not enough time for the market to crash.

>>11225424
that's exactly what it is, kikes print money and buy the only things valuable like land and buildings while making also sure that taxes and inflation are high enough so that filthy goyim won't even dare to think about owning their own place. In 50 years kids will be asking
>wait, so back then people actually owned their houses?
because everyone will be a rent slave wagecuck, you won't even be able to go off grid because all the forrests will be owned by (((them))) too.

More taxes, more inflation, more jewish tricks, it's good for you goyim, look how the eonomy is booming, you can have a nice iphone but remember owning your own house is not kosher.

>>11222785
this, kek

>>11222666
You are right.

But eventually population is going to peak and then decline because there is

1. Not enough meaningful work for everyone
2. Not enough housing suitable for family formation
3. An entire generation that is not having children fast enough.

The population is likely to decline and accelerate this decline in the next 30 years no matter what the real estate professionals are telling you.

>>11222666
Satanic trips of truth. 666, the number of the beast.
The Jews unfortunately are hell bent on destroying European populations worldwide. Until Europeans come to realise this then mass migration will continue, and the housing market will continue to grow.

>>11225471
>that pic
You know who else was lucky? Seth MacFarlane
Because of a hangover he missed his flight
Was he in on it too?

>>11223103
That looks beyond depressing. Holy shit.

>>11222666
I NEED A HOUSING CRASH TO BUY A HOUSE!

>>11224713
>median house price
>not anywhere anyone actually wants to live
those statistics don't reflect the reality of cities with actual functioning economies
flyover country is economically irrelevant and is likely where your median figures are coming from
>house prices increasing at ~6% annually
gee what a coincidence, growing roughly at par with the stock market
a doubling in prices in a decade is surely a sustainable and good thing
I hope your annual 2% raise at work (if you're lucky) keeps up with that rate of inflation

>>11225267
how do you make money in a downturn? just short everything?

>>11226134
>2% raise at work
How fucking worthless are you?
If you don't get a 10%-20% salary raise per year you are either part of the subhuman race or will be jobless in the next years anyway because of automation.

>>11224756
This guy is actually partially right, it's a bit of both I guess

>>11222666
OP is literal Satan,
>you shall know him by the mark of the beast,
and is spreading lies that
A. Hapless immigration laws letting in a million a year will go on forever
and
B. A housing market that believes a shitbox house built out of plywood is worth one fourth of a million dollars, will go on believing such forever

>>11222666
I highly doubt the housing market won't crash. We have plenty of land, but not every area is economically active. This means housing prices correlates with the economy. There's also tight restrictions and regulations that the government placed on the building of new homes. This artificial limit inflates prices. A lot of the homes are purchased for speculation and not for living. Some owners just let the houses remain unoccupied because they expect property values to rise in the future because occupied homes are harder to sell. Once the economy crashes, a lot of people will want to "dump their bags" as quickly as possible, so speak.

>>11226751
C. Land is limited - world population is growthing and growthing + legal and illegal Immigration is growthing and growthing

Guess what will happen? It is not the fucking wooden houses which make up the price

>>11226528
that's what I pay my employees. not much different anywhere. oh but you must be me job hopper thinking your wagie labor will ever amount to anything
kek

>>11224578
you're a wage though

>>11226134
no retard, they're not going up 6% every year at a sustained pace
they went up 6% IN THE PAST YEAR, the year the fed began to raise interest rates at a steady pace
in the same year return for the S&P 500 was 17-18% after dividends, literally three times higher, add in small cap stocks and it was four times higher

there are big cities with good jobs that pay lots in the place you call flyover but go ahead and remain in your dirty, congested, nigger filled shithole on the coast

>>11226528
>10% compounding income raises
not everyone starts out making minimum wage dipshit, my annual 3% raise equates to someone else's 10%

>>11222841
Reno here, Californians please fuck off. Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft etc. has destroyed any chance for affordable housing for me and my family. 2br apt used to be $800/month now its $1400/month. Literally die. Local laws are changing too for the worse, California 2.0, almost wish they would change tax law to reflect Cali so there's no more incentive to move here.

>>11224531
>Housing prices are finally getting back to 2006-2008 levels, yet pay is much higher on average.
It’s literally the exact opposite - at least here in the UK. Real wages have been stagnant since around 2003 (based on the govt’s generously low CPI inflation figures) and house prices are higher than thy were in 2007

I doubt the story is any different in most other western economies

this explains australia's housing market and its future, and im certain the same applies for many other regions in the west

https://medium.com/@matt_11659/matt-barrie-australias-economy-is-a-house-of-cards-6877adb3fb2f

>>11223745
>>>11222666 (OP)
>west coaster here, totally agree, people who say this don;t understand supply and demand. theres a hundred thousand new chink millionaires who want to buy a house in america or canada.

The real problem with your argument is you assume flooding a first world country with third world mud people will maintain expensive prices.

That is fucking retarded by a magnitude of great heights. A country full of Somalians and squatamalans with little skillset will not buy more luxury 500k condos or your 4 Br house in the burbs for 450k.

You guys who assume endless third world immigration will sustain housing inflation are as retarded as the euro boomers who think those same immigrants will pay their pensions. They fucking won't. In fact most will probably end up on some government subsidy.

Also China has instituted far greater capital controls and are making sure they can't keep driving up Canada real estate.

I am not saying housing will collapse anytime soon because who tf knows when it will finally kick the bucket. But if you guys seriously think bumblefuck real estate in flyover country where most of the people already live on welfare is going to go up you're seriously fucking retarded.

>Tfw recently moved from city to bumblefuck

>>11223103
Fuck its real.

>>11229472
What ... inside its fucking comfy

https://www.google.at/maps/place/Srk+Arena-Norilsk/@69.3589749,88.1828228,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipMpta3Hdba8FCYQ0uEFiuXY4R-zHvEa5PqblZBs!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipMpta3Hdba8FCYQ0uEFiuXY4R-zHvEa5PqblZBs%3Dw203-h135-k-no!7i5472!8i3648!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x44ac5c403d18ab93:0x4024234d8fd6e107!2sNorilsk,+Krasnoyarsk+Krai,+Russia!3b1!8m2!3d69.35579!4d88.1892938!3m4!1s0x44ac5c1baabce13b:0x2de3b0d0e036ea2a!8m2!3d69.3589746!4d88.1828222

https://www.google.at/maps/@69.3620081,88.1945736,3a,75y,316.58h,89.58t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNqZT5orHhvdCv_8ZEM8L8C38Tn0TMef8kT932M!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNqZT5orHhvdCv_8ZEM8L8C38Tn0TMef8kT932M%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya118.47406-ro0-fo100!7i5376!8i2688

>>11224578
>took 10 years for an $8/h raise

Ahahahaha, this wagie trying to belittle everybody else

>>11228047
you're right, they're not going up 6%, it's much higher than that.
unfortunately because shithole flyover country is included in the overall numbers, the rate is understandably much lower.
>hurr durr 17-18% this year
I'm not talking about this year, on a long enough timeline the returns average out to roughly 6-7%
jfc every argument you've made is a misunderstanding of statistics, why do I even bother responding to your idiocy

>>11224708
This guy gets it.

>>11229442

Immigration generally drive up rent price in populous cities, which in turn drive up property price. Take Corona, Queens in NYC for example. That neighborhood have one of the highest rental prices in Queens due to the substantial Hispanic population. They will rent out a house for a very high price and sublet it to 6-7 other people to bring down the affordability, typically 2 people per room. This in turn has driven the property value in the area to record highs. Most of the landlord there are wealthy Chinese with US citizenships or legal resident status. The neighborhood itself isnt anything special besides the high Hispanic population.

>>11224708
so you are saying that with the enormous increase in population and no jobs housing will be cheap.

that pretty retarded. the boomer living in the house will not fucking sell at a loss. they will rent it to their kids and live in a luxury retiree death camp.

>>11224713
>The building materials are cheap
In January the 25% tarriff on housing materials (softwood) kicks in. Builders will have to spend about 10K more to build a house which means they will charge about 12-15K more.

Immigrants doens't have money to buy houses so...

>>11230531
>subsidies

>>11223378
> but usually people get tied to jobs and schools, and don't want to move just for profit if it means changing schools for their kids to live in a shittier area a few towns over.

ding ding ding!

so the real new technology will be how to move jobs and schools!

the technology used to be "be white."

>>11230715
the technology now is: be a DINK

>>11230741
yeah well the castro neighborhood in SF has been a very wealthy DINK town for decades but its schools still suck. there's nothing about that part of town you could point at and say, "this is an engine for economic growth" either. nobody works remote from the Castro.

that isn't to say that having a lot of rich people (who happen to be gay) isn't good for schools—it's great for schools. but i think insofar as it gives you a natural experiment to find what DINK community's schools look like, it's not a sure bet on school quality.

>>11230531
Diversity/refugee bucks gives them enough to take the lowest income housing.

>>11226781
Yeah but the population is only growing in the third world and even the UN says that the 12 billionth person will never be born in any of our lifetimes

>>11222666
>mass immigration
In USA? Lolnot

>>11230773
kek that's the whole point of being a DINK, it's no longer a concern