/biz/ - Business & Finance

basic math (which you dont fucking have) leaves you with a 50/50 chance you get the car
jesus fuck how /biz/ gets more retarded every day is beyond me, must be something to do with investing in shitcoins and losing money that kills braincells and logic

Yes, because the chance to win after switching is 1/2 when it was 1/3 before it

>>11105647
>>11105648
I fucking hate this response. By not switching, you're basically just picking the same door with a 50/50 chance. The whole point of something being 50/50 is that there's two options, but people act like you only get one choice to increase your odds in this scenario.

2/3 chance of winning goats, I'm in

>>11105663
Spotted the pajeet

>>11105660
You have to switch to increase the odds

>>11105660
Your 1/3 doesn't improve to 1/2 just because another 1/3 turned out to be a bust

>what are linked variables

0.33 chance you picked goat one and got shown goat two. Switching gets you the car

0.33 chance you picked goat two and got shown goat one. Switching gets you the car

0.33 chance you picked the car and got shown either goat one or goat two. Switching gets you the goat

Look up Bayes theorem you fucking retards

>>11105686
this is the most retarded thing ive ever read

So you pick No1 and that faggot opens no. 3 instead which has a goat?

>>11105701
Lol, unless you're picking fault with my approximating 1/3 as 0.33, you couldn't be more wrong

>>11105636
I'm pretty sure this was explained in the movie 21

The three possibilities:
[goat] [goat] [car]
[goat] [car] [goat]
[car] [goat] [goat]

Let's assume you randomly pick door 1 (the left one).
In the first possibility, you win by switching doors (because the host takes away a door with a goat)
In the second possibility as well.
Only the third possibility gets you the car if you don't switch doors.

Thus, switching doors increases your odds of picking the car from 1/3 to 2/3 chance.

>>11105728
And ad nauseum in literature. The interesting point to the thought experiment is how many people refuse to believe that switching is the best strategy- they want to believe that they picked the car the first time, even though logic suggests they did not. It may be the same psychology why people hold losing positions and wait for market reversal to "prove them right" instead of eating a loss and switching to a more profitable hold

it's much easier to understand if there are 100 doors. you pick door 1. what are the chances you guessed right? it's 1/100. what are the chances you didn't guess it right? it's 99/100. that's all that matters.

>>11105830
>Easier to understand
Could be my ASD, but I don't understand why 100% of people can't see that switching is the correct strategy. I understand that the majority of people get this wrong- I understand also that there is a psychological component to their reluctance to switch doors. What I struggle with is understanding why people approach this intuitively (i.e. emotionally instead of logically). That's like admitting they're a mouth breathing brainlet with no understanding of mathematics, and being proud of it

>>11105684
Yes it does you fucking idiot. You don't have to pick again. One of the options was removed leaving you with a 50/50 chance without having to change shit you fucking brainlet

>>11105905
I think their logic is as follows: there are 2 doors left, thus the chances are 50-50

>>11106393
Nope. You can try this with playing cards, you get it right more times when you switch you pick than not.

>>11105660
Watch Vsauce you utter waste of space

>>11107044
>Watch Vsauce

>>11105735
But scenario 1 is already out since you saw the goat in door 3.

>>11105735
It’s beautiful. That’s what that is.

>>11105636
This is a famous problem. Switching is the right answer, which gives you 2/3 chances of getting the car. Not switching gives you 1/3, since you would have to have gotten it right the first time.
biz is too low IQ to understand it though, as the embarrassment that are the most replies to this thread can show.

>>11106393
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>11105660
Then you hate reality and math. It's ok I do too

>>11106963
Yep tried it after watching the movie 21 to believe it, my brain is too low IQ to grasp it 100% by itself

>>11105636
Heh, nice try Mr. Kikeberg. I'll have you know i've read Rich Chink, Poor Gook by Robbie Kawasaki so know that the car is a liability while the goat is an asset. As such i will keep my first door and hope to get a goat.

>>11105636
You should make a game show out of this concept.

>>11105686
This is the correct answer.
Amerifags don't learn this in school, in Germany it's part of our curriculum kek

>>11105701
retard, unironically kys

>>11105686
This leave 0.001 chance of what exactly? Nice math you got there, checkmate.

>>11105660
You have a 2/3 chance to pick a goat. If you picked a goat and he shows the other goat and you switch, you win the car. So if you pick a goat (2/3 chance) and switch, you win the car. 66.66% chance to win.

If you dont switch your chance is 50/50

For anyone that has a brain jam when trying to wrap their head around the Monty Haul problem, I find taking it to the extreme helps conceptualize it best:

Instead of three doors, you have one million doors. You get to pick one. Chances are you've picked a loser, right?

OK, now the host opens 999,998 doors and they're all goats. Now he offers you the chance to switch.

What are the chances you picked the right door to begin with vs the chances he's just eliminated all the other bad doors and the one remaining is the car?

It's the same thing with 3 doors, just harder to envision how unlikely you were to pick a winner and what a favor he's done by eliminating the bad choices.

>>11108040
>0.33+0.33+0.33+0.001 is 1

Are you american?

>>11108119
> .33 +.33 +.33 = 1

I suggest you write this on paper since your mind cant comprehend that this doesnt equal 1

>>11108116
No didnt help. Don't post here ever again

>>11105647
>>11105701
>>11106393

This is the oldest probability problem in the damn book. It's so famous it has a name. The fucking mythbusters did a segment on it. Look up the Monty Hall problem, it wont cure you being a brainlet but it may help a little.

>>11105636
>Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats
Game gets harder if you're a Muslim

>>11108249
Sounds easier. Everyone’s a winner.

>>11108116
That's real fucking retarded, and only serve to confuse. I think you suck!

Pic related is best way to understand the problem

Hard mode: What if the host doesn't know what's behind the doors?

>>11105636
>wants /biz/ to do his Probability homework

>>11108141
>can't add OR subtract

This problem is really simple, just counterintuitive. There's initially a 2/3 chance you picked a goat. The host will always open a goat door irrespective of your intitial choice, so the host opening the door has absolutely no effect on the chances of you having picked a goat. So your chances of winning a goat on your first choice is still 2/3, and you should switch.

>>11105636
The host always reveals a donkey.

>>11108513
Then he sometimes opens the door with the car and can keep it.

>>11108491
No, there always is a goat behind door three. Reread it again, he opens door three and there is a goat, cancelling out the possibilty three that there is a car in there. Therefore there are two possibilities, leaving you with a 50/50 chance.

>>11105636
is this my interview again? I know that one, it's Monty Hall paradox, do I still need to explain it... ?