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File: 69 KB, 1426x633, elliot.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737218 No.10737218 [Reply] [Original]

Elliot waves and Don Kruger equilibria theory dictates for every sharp decline in the a stochastic variable there will be a sharp over turn.

Clearly we are heading to $100,00 based on this theory. See image for proof.

>> No.10737243

>>10737218
based reasonable ta

>> No.10737259

I don’t understand all of this chart analysis. Is there any evidence that future prices can be predicted by historical prices alone? It seems like complete bs.

>> No.10737271

>>10737259
What part of the image do you want me to explain? I thought it was self explanatory but I am willing to explain TA and the theory if you like.

>> No.10737313

>>10737259
He just drew random shapes that look like they fit.

>> No.10737322
File: 52 KB, 500x333, 29084036-7B6A-4FAE-B19E-D4B52813FA3F.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737322

>>10737313

>> No.10737327

>>10737218
i agree with the $100k target man but that image is bullshit.

>> No.10737329

102K this year lads.

>> No.10737334

>>10737271
I don’t need an explanation. I’m just asking if there’s any evidence that chart analysis tehniques have been repeatable and accurate.

Because it seems to be as useful as alchemy.

>> No.10737342

>>10737327
Have you ever read the Don Kruger theory on partial equilibra of stochastic precursors in the market? It’s aboslutelt mind shattering, Bitcoin is a textbook example.

>> No.10737365

>>10737259
Good point here. Can someone experienced explain how can technical analysis help someone predict the future trend of the graph? At least fundamental analysis is based on future projections, historical prices are useless imho where a huge change approaches..

>> No.10737378

>>10737365
Read the chart have you ever read any basic TA? Read up on Don Kruger’s theory.

>> No.10737379

>>10737313
He fell for the "TA is bullshit meme lines" meme

TA is only the analysis of human behavior and human behavior is predictable on past data, it's also a self fullfilling prophecy, because more people believe in TA the more it becomes real.

>> No.10737409

Sooo, there’s no evidence that TA works? No research showing that the techniques are repeatable and accurate?

So it’s bs.

>> No.10737434

>>10737379
I would argue that human behavior cannot be predicted with the tiny amount of data found in a chart of btc price over 2 years

>> No.10737448
File: 93 KB, 1764x846, non brainlet TA.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737448

>>10737271
Your image and TA are both as retarded as you are.

>> No.10737460

>>10737342
>It’s aboslutelt mind shattering
not really, and still didn't explain what the fuck does dunning-kruger got to do with that pic.

>> No.10737461

>>10737409
TA is all that matters in bitcoin. It's not that TA is wrong, it's that most people are fucking shit at it.

>> No.10737467

>>10737434
Furthermore, any successful predictions on very basic human behaviors utilize absurd amounts of data. Look at any successful ML projects to do with human behavior.

>> No.10737491

>>10737434
ye TA is 2 years old hehe, are you retarded?

>> No.10737492

>>10737461
Smh... still no evidence that TA is anymore useful than alchemy. TA is vastly unsuccessful and unrepeatable. If TA turns a profit, it’s nothing more than luck.

>> No.10737494
File: 448 KB, 240x320, 7E282D48-1D6B-48CE-9078-65F276E6B340.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737494

Alright folks, if you haven’t figured it out I’m larping (this guy did >>10737313).

Was fun while it lasted, surprised no one called me out sooner. Everything I said was 100% BS.

>> No.10737516

>>10737491
TA has been around since the first stock market, and probably before then. It’s been around for much longer than 2 years.

>> No.10737519

>>10737467
Do you realize TA exist for many years ? not only since bitcoin? or do you think bitcoin is the first tradeable market and TA was invented with bitcoin?

>> No.10737527

>>10737519
See my last post. Think you’ve confused anons here.

>> No.10737543

>>10737519
Ohh I see what you mean. My bad, i stated that poorly. What I’m trying to say there is that there’s not enough data in OP’s chart to make future predictions of human behavior.

>> No.10737549
File: 85 KB, 1600x885, support and resistance on weekly.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737549

>>10737492
Imagine being this fucking stupid

I don't know what you think "TA" is, but all you need to do is pull up a chart of bitcoin and throw some basic moving averages and it's pretty clear that they act as support and resistance. How hard it is to understand that it's self-fufilling in the sense that a number of market participants are looking at the same lines, and using those to influence their actions, which in turn validates the lines as support and resistance.

I mean shit, I've only tripled my bitmex balance since March using nothing but TA as the basis for my trades but shit what would I know, I've only been following these markets daily for 4+ years so clearly this random anon on the internet has convinced me to stop relying on "alchemy"

If you don't see clear lines of support and resistance on this chart you're beyond hope.

>> No.10737567

>>10737543
Bitcoin is actually the easiest asset to use TA over. of course not for small price action since its heavily manipulated.

>> No.10737593

>>10737549
If you've been following the market for 4+ years, then you're brain has collected way more information than a single chart with two variables.

Let me repeat myself for the 5th time. There's is no evidence that TA techniques are repeatable and accurate. If you could find some solid research that goes against what I'm saying, then I would be open minded to it. But, that research doesn't exist. Because TA is alchemy.

>> No.10737599

>>10737593
you're trolling for sure

>> No.10737608

>>10737549
hello friend is there a cheat code on when to buy and sell please help I'm a brainlet

>> No.10737609

>>10737549
let me show you why ta can't work:
if ta actually worked reliably -> everybody would use it
if everybody used it -> everybody would make money
but that's impossible the only party that makes money on every trade is the exchange. among traders it's a less than zero sum game.
so in conclusion ta can't work.

>> No.10737623

>>10737567
it's always manipulation when you fags guess wrong isn't it? how cute...

>> No.10737633

>>10737599
I'm not trolling. TA is trolling! Companies that do chart analysis on the stock market are far more likely to UNDER perform a total stock market index fund.

>> No.10737652

>>10737609
So glad I'm not the only one that thinks TA is silliness on this board.

>> No.10737656

>>10737593
Had you identified the 20 week moving average as support (which it acted as for 2 full years), you could have repeatedly bought every dip throughout all of 2017 and been successful.

If you think there's magical TA techniques that work every single time without fail then you're just retarded, but it doesn't take a genius to identify trends and patterns, and as a market participant you just have to trust in those trends and patterns to hold until they don't. I don't see how this is so difficult for you to grasp. I stand by the comment that people who bash TA are brainlets of the highest order.

>>10737608
Yeah, pay attention to bitfinex long/short margin data and when the positioning is more than 10k net short/long, do the opposite.

>>10737609
Good thing not everyone will use it because only like 10-20% of market participants are smart and the other 80% are abject retards, like the people bashing TA in this thread.

>> No.10737676

>>10737218
>What is this TA?
Crouching Tiger hidden Snek

>> No.10737691
File: 92 KB, 1608x888, nothing repeating here chief.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737691

pic related, absolute no repeatability here

>> No.10737694

>>10737656
>Good thing not everyone will use it
if it worked people would use it there would be simple apps for it. have you tried ta predictors for btc? there are sites for it they consistently give you bad advice. because ta fucking sucks.

>> No.10737719

>>10737694
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. There are so many things about actually trading with real money that make it too hard for normies to handle. Why do people seem to have this misconception that TA is supposed to be some magic cheat code for the markets? It's nothing more than another tool in your belt to help you gain an edge, but to argue it's useless is fucking stupid.

I've spoken to many professional money managers and the vast majority at least use some form of TA to help with market timing. Fundamental analysis tells you whether you want to buy a stock/security, and technical analysis tells you when. It's really not a fucking difficult concept to grasp

>> No.10737728

>>10737694
Also, stop looking at shitty fucking TA and using it as the basis for saying TA as a practition is useless

>> No.10737730

>>10737694
take this for example
https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/btc-usd-technical
even tho btc will take a beating in the coming weeks it says strong buy

>> No.10737733

>>10737365
Because people watch the charts when trading, so they are influenced by the past.
That's pretty basic btw.

>> No.10737746

>>10737728
all ta is shitty as fuck i have seen many predictions none of them followed up consistently.

>> No.10737747

>>10737730

No shit, this is some garbage fucking third-rate automatically-generated bullshit. You need to use at least a fraction of your brain if you want to be successful. Am I being fucking trolled here? You're looking at some investing.com garbage and using it as the basis to say TA as an entire study is useless?

>> No.10737762

>>10737746
>what little TA i've seen from retards on a chinese finger painting board means all TA is shitty

jesus christ the absolute state of TA-bashers

>> No.10737766

>>10737730
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/technicals/
interestingly this say strong sell kek from the same """indicators""".

>> No.10737780
File: 94 KB, 1606x891, more totally non-predictable events.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737780

>>10737691
above, a case for TA showing you a 2-year strong support line that held every single time it was tested

attached, a case for TA showing you that same support, once broken and invalidated, became resistance

holy shit its alchemy

>> No.10737791

>>10737747
Hmm... Ok.. Based on strictly the historical numbers, what do you predict will happen in the future, oh wise one?

>> No.10737815

>>10737791
Given that the last time bitcoin crashed in 2014, it fell all the way to the 200 WEEK moving average and languished there for a full year, my prediction is (and has been for some time) that that is how things will play out again, and we will end up revisiting the 200 week moving average which currently stands at around 2700 now and will likely be around 3k when we get there. It might take until the end of this year or into '19, but I'm fairly sure it's gonna happen.

Not that you'll even remember me saying this when it does.

>> No.10737850
File: 74 KB, 1602x893, more alchemy.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737850

>>10737815

>> No.10737859

>>10737815
And you base this cycle on? The fact that it happened one time before?

>> No.10737868
File: 38 KB, 800x450, oogaboogaaa.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737868

so bitrock go up or down? grug need to know, grug lost many rock in great rockpocalypse.

>> No.10737879

>>10737859
Correct. It's an uncertain market with pretty much nothing in the way of fundamentals. People will look to the past for guidance and see that this is where the bleeding finally stopped last time, and smarter money will begin to allocate decent sized capital around there. Their buying effects will reinforce the idea of the line being support, and the cycle will begin again.

>> No.10737901

>>10737815
rofl okay then see you next year make a trip so that i can laugh at you!

>> No.10737912

>>10737901
Whatever you say man, I just want you to remember that I said this so that when it happens you can come back here and apologize for being so fucking stupid, okay?

Just to reiterate : the bottom will be ~3k. Maybe lower on a one-candle capitulation but the support will come in at 3k. Until then have fun feeling smug you abject retard

>> No.10737914

>>10737879
By smarter money, you mean predictable money.

Nevertheless, your predictions are as arbitrary as they are bold.

>> No.10737916

>>10737912
>when it happens
so never then okay deal

>> No.10737921

99,500 EOY

>> No.10737931

>>10737914
By smarter money, I mean people with sizeable amounts of capital that are smart enough to wait until clear signs of a bottom before throwing money at this current dumpster fire.

Believe what you want, in the end the market will be the final arbiter of who is right. But I'm fully prepared to put my money where my mouth is, are you?

>>10737916
You sound pretty confident for someone who I'm almost certain has been in crypto less than 1 full year and knows absolutely nothing. I know there's not much space in that head of yours for new information but just try and remember what I've discussed here, okay? I've already screenshotted your posts for posterity to laugh at in 6-12 months from now.

>> No.10737935

Ta completely works. But its like saying science and maths works and then thinking your a fucking genius cause u can count.

Ta isnt the problem. Shit amateur ta which is 95% of crypto TA is the problem.

>> No.10737947
File: 16 KB, 663x198, 65647788.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737947

>>10737365
With respect, it's a bit that everything you think you're able to understand about why it's useful is not actually why. Price is basically random all the time and you're hoping you've found an edge in the market that allows you to identify moments slightly less random than usual. I'm not talking about OP's pic, just TA in general. There are black swans but they'll fuck you if you allow it, a trader will suffer drawdowns, if things change, he can say OK I'm going to adapt after my account has lost this much because what I thought I knew is not true. It's guessing and you have people who are paid to give opinions about price and people who trade. You're opiniongivers right now and for TA you have to choose what is what and have it clear. The Turtles were a famopus group, and they tried to give a strategy to 10 people and maybe 2 got it.

Arthur:.
> My first boss taught me that everything was my fault as the trader. Obviously there are many things outside of your control, but if you approach your profession with that mentality you attempt to quantify and mitigate all of the risks within your control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHCUOHwixmU
> Negative correlation between intellect and money

Try to watch 3 minutes of this, maybe 15, maybe the whole thing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDkE6RHke9U

Basically, stop asking if things work just do serious research on your own because there are no breadcrumbs towards the right path. Be responsible and don't make excuses, it's not something you need to do, but it's as mysterious as saying boats don't work because tsunamis happen. And I don't care about making the metaphor better, just pick a boat. Asking, watching, theorizing is easy, doing is hard.

>> No.10737953

>>10737815
do you visit ccn or read financial review? how do you think all these projects will fare during btc crashing to 3k? what about the overlap between alt market makers/investments in whatever project and their desire to trade btc?

>> No.10737969
File: 53 KB, 2496x216, 4chan TA prediction.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10737969

>>10737931
Gotchya right here. Let me make sure I understand correctly:

BTC will have a value of $3,000.00 at the end of 2019?

Could I have some error bounds on those numbers? Are we talking $3,000 +- $100? and 2019 +- 1 month?

>> No.10737970

>>10737931
ahahahahah you already made me laugh. good. we will see.
>>10737921
this is more likely than $3k ever again. not that i would be crying if it drops to $5k i buy if it drops to $4k i buy if it drops to $3k i buy. if it goes sideways i buy if it goes up i buy. it will be $100k soon enough. so idgf.

>> No.10737994

>>10737969

I can't give you specifics on timing, although my gut and intuition tells me we reach bottom late '18 early '19. If you're going to be a faggot and not only hold me to a price call but a date call give me january 2019 +/- 3 months or so.

Then again I'll get the price call right but it'll probably happen outside those bands and you'll still find a way to feel smug while I throw 30-50 grand at bitcoin at the bottom and make 20x by 2022.

I can't tell you what THE bottom is going to be because the final capitulation is always some crazy shit no one can predict. In 2014 the FINAL bottom was closer to $150 although the support was eventually found at $200, and the support will be found again at the 200 week moving average

>>10737953
I try not to read crypto related news and any of that garbage because I don't like letting other peoples' opinions influence my own. I'll read news occasionally to see how others are thinking but I just need the chart and a core group of guys I chat with to influence my decision making processes

>>10737970
Yeah, we will. I've got capital on the sidelines and nothing but patience.

>> No.10738019

>>10737994
>and nothing but patience
well at least you got one thing right in this thread maybe not all is lost for your stupid ass.

>> No.10738039

>>10737994
Seems like you're starting to spread around your prediction to cover your ass.

I thought you were very good at predicting the future price based on the historical price using mathematics. I need error bounds or your prediction is worthless.

BTC at $3,000 (+/- $100) during Jan. 2019 (+/- 3 months)? Is that right?

>> No.10738043
File: 114 KB, 1816x854, totally unpredictable.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738043

>>10738019
You're awfully bold for someone who hasn't countered with anything of substance. Prime example of Dunning-Kruger in full effect. How much did YOU make on the 2017 bull-run?

Here's some more alchemy btw.

>> No.10738051

>>10737994
>20x
what sort of rookie numbers are those? if you are willing to wait a few years 100x is entirely possible. as early as 2023-2024 btc can hit $1mil.

>> No.10738052

>>10738039
>I thought you were very good at predicting the future price based on the historical price using mathematics.

Point to the post in the thread where I said this. Stop putting words in my mouth. You've got my call. I get that TA raped your mother and killed your father but stop taking out your aggression on me.

>> No.10738061

>>10738051
>as early as 2023-2024 btc can hit $1mil.

>talks shit about TA
>pulls retarded predictions out of his ass with absolutely no basis

kek you're an interesting one, that's for sure.

>> No.10738071

>>10737994
fair enough. how do you envision alts behaving during this hullabaloo? all the eager project nerds and traders who are on the sidelines waiting to move or make announcements until "the market" becomes favorable again? at what point do those interests outweigh bitcoins?

>> No.10738081

>>10738039
>gimme error boundaries or the prediction is worthless!
>well now it just looks like you're covering your own butthole by creating boundaries!

>> No.10738095

>>10738071
Historically it seems alts have only gone on super bull runs after money has already been made in bitcoin. People that suddenly have a lot more wealth on paper start to spread it around and move further out on the risk curve, from alts to btc. The way I see things alts will likely continue to bleed out, with their various ups and downs but with a defined downtrend at least until BTC bottoms out and likely further continue flat until BTC starts to show signs of life again. This most recent bull run in alts was by far the largest in history so it's hard to say how much the future is going to mimic the past. I don't think any altcoin provides any real tangible value and as they don't represent actual ownership claims like equity, they're pretty much worthless aside from their speculative value. I wouldn't accumulate any major bags until BTC bottoms out as well which I believe to be happening by early 2019 or so. Until then it's nothing but pain I'm afraid.

>> No.10738103

>>10738043
wow... name calling huh? lemme show you how it's properly done: fuck you autistic retard! see? wasn't that hard... no need to pretend you are not a brainlet we can tell that you are.

>> No.10738105

>>10738081
He's a gigantic faggot, there's no reasoning with these people. Imagine seriously asking for a longer-term price call within +/- $100 kek

>> No.10738108

>>10738052
You're the one who starting throwing math at me and calling me ignorant because I don't see how someone can predict the future price based on the historical prices. Now that I've asked you to do so, you won't put your name on it. I'll hold you to the following:

BTC at $3,000 (+/- $100) during Jan. 2019 (+/- 3 months) [screenshot]

There's at least some non-zero probability that you're correct. But, I bet if I asked 1,000 technical analysts, I would get 1,000 different predictions.

>> No.10738121

>>10738061
it will happen and you might say "okay but when?? that's the point!" and i will say "it doesn't matter you retarded cuck! just hold until your goal is met!"

>> No.10738138

>>10738103
All you need to do is go back through the thread to see I've been far more polite and responsive to you with my actual beliefs based on what I believe to be a thoughtful process and you just mock me like the retard you are.

>>10738108
>You're the one who starting throwing math

Where did I do this?

>calling me ignorant because I don't see how someone can predict the future price based on the historical prices.

No, I'm calling you ignorant because you're blatantly dismissive of anything TA, instead of at least having the intellectual capacity and curiosity to perhaps look at the subject without such a dismissive attitude. I never said +/- $100, and I can't give you that kind of call because the final capitulation bottom will be too hard to call. I've already told you what I believe, if there was anything more to say I'd say it. If you want to continue being a fucking prick then go nuts, this is an anonymous board. What're you gonna do, come back in a year and laugh at an anonymous poster if it doesn't work out? (it will)

>>10738121
I made a quarter million in 2017. I'll ride the next leg up, and the leg after that. I'll NEVER sell all my bitcoins, so don't worry i'll be right there whenever the peak is.

>> No.10738140

>>10738108
>There's at least some non-zero probability that you're correct.
yeah why do you think i haven't gone all in just yet. it can go lower but pretending it's likely instead of an off chance is pure retard. he is completely misreading the mood and where we are in the cycles. but that's okay.

>> No.10738144

>>10738105
I'm asking you for your error bounds! I made up fake ones because you wouldn't give me anything.

Saying "It will be around 3k, around 2019" it not valuable. It's not prediction. Would you consider yourself correct if the price was at 10k in early 2020? I guess you might.

Without error bounds, your prediction is worthless! +/- $100 is very bold. What would you suggest instead? +/- $1,000? +/- $10,000?

>> No.10738151

>>10738140
>he actually thinks this is more or less THE bottom

oh god you're stupider than I thought. Please don't throw all your money at this thing, you'll regret it by winter.

>>10738144
>making a prediction isn't a prediction because it isn't specific enough for my arbitrary critera

Kill yourself. 200 week MA bottom, Jan 2019 +/- 3 months. Come back around then and apologize you absolute faggot.

>> No.10738156

>>10738138
>and you just mock me
i never do that to people i can take even a little seriously. just wanted you to know that.
>I made a quarter million in 2017
larping now?

>> No.10738166

>>10738103
>AHAH! You've fallen straight into my trap!
>You really thought you could get away with confidently asserting something you believe to be accurate?! NAMECALLER!!

>> No.10738169
File: 63 KB, 1427x172, 158k cap gain 2017.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738169

>>10738156

I bet you wish I was LARPing you mickey mouse small-time faggot

>> No.10738186

>>10738151
>Please don't throw all your money at this thing
why would i? i know how far i can go exactly i know my buy target i know my timeline i stagger my buys to insure about fall in price but i don't expect it at all. if it happens good if it doesn't okay. that's the only healthy approach i can see. you are just a retarded bear so far. we are way past capitulation unless some seriously bad news comes like a major exchange going under price will hold above $5k.

>> No.10738202

>>10738186
>we are way past capitulation unless some seriously bad news comes like a major exchange going under price will hold above $5k.

See, at least when I make calls, I back them up with what I believe to be sound TA. You pull shit out of your ass and have the gall to laugh at TA practitioners. This whole thread is hilarious.

>> No.10738225

>>10738202
i'm telling you you are misreading the market because you try to do this retarded ta shit... it's your weakness not your strength. everyone can get lucky even with the dumbest strategy.

>> No.10738234

>>10738169
> I'm good at TA! BTC will be $3,000 +/- something in January.
Wow, how insightful.

>200 week MA bottom
You're not even giving enough information here for it to be clear what you're talking about. Is the moving average calculated over the past 200 days? Is it centered on the 200 days? Future 200 days?

>> No.10738239

>>10738140
>you can't analyse trends and learn to read the market and other such things
>he is completely misreading the mood and where we are in da market cycles

>> No.10738240

>>10738225
>everyone can get lucky even with the dumbest strategy

Even a strategy like calling an arbitrary bottom with absolutely nothing, not even TA, to back it up? What leads you to believe this is the bottom?

>> No.10738250

>>10737259

TA doesn't work 100% because you cannot predict external events or breaking news. However, human psychological behavior is rather predictable IE: fear induces selling, greed induces buying. Utilizing an arsenal of TA and applying that to volume, price, etc. will give you an edge over the competition (we're all competing against each other unless we can call agree to trade in unison, which would never happen).

The problem most TA fags run into is that they never back test and refine their strategy, instead they look at the current market climate, draw some fucking lines and call it a day.

For TA to work successfully you need to ACTUALLY know how the tools interpret data. You also need to calibrate all these tools to the crypto market as they are all basically designed for stocks and forex, markets which are operational 24/7... among many other things.

Bottom line, TA does give you an edge when you actually understand the data to begin with, monitor it closely and back test every theory you come up with. Otherwise, you're just another retard with a computer screen.

>> No.10738251

>>10738234
weeks* not days.

>> No.10738265

>>10737218
$100,000 BTC EOY
$15,000 ETH EOY
$1,000 LINK EOY
check em and weep boyos

>> No.10738291
File: 73 KB, 1598x889, surely you cant be this stupid.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738291

>>10738234
You're trolling me right now, right?

Look at the picture. That pink line, that's the 200 week simple moving average. I'm sure even you are smart enough to deduce what that means. Given that it's calculated over such a long period, it's relatively insensitive to price fluctuations and as a result will likely continue on a modest uptrend into the new year. Use your powers of observation to extrapolate where that line will likely be (roughly 3k) around January, and that's where bitcoin will settle. If you want anything more specific than that with your little error bands you'll have to subscribe to my paid telegram channel :^)

Oh, and as an aside, how much have YOU made in crypto? I mean shit, if you poo-poo on TA that made me $250k, surely your own, more fine-tuned mathematical methods have yielded you millions! Surely you're not arrogant and stupid enough to try and shit on someone far more experienced than you with nothing to back it up, right?

>> No.10738303

>>10738291
blue, not pink. inb4 you use this semantics bullshit against me like the petty little faggot you are

>> No.10738317

>>10738250
Thank you for not calling me retarded. I totally agree that general analysis is very valuable. I think there's a lot of information to research which can provide an advantage for an investment.

I want to be clear, I'm only arguing against predicting the future price based simply on historical prices. I argue that there's simply not enough data there to accurately predict the future prices.

>> No.10738329

>>10738166
>acknowledging markets are cyclical in the long term and loosely repeat patterns with some variation is the same as pretending you can predict day to day price movements from historic data
...

>> No.10738336

>>10738317
TA isn't used to predict future specific prices, it's used to indicate potential areas of support and resistance and give you an edge when it comes to decision making. I don't see how this concept eludes you

>> No.10738344

>>10738329
was meant for this wtf >>10738239

>> No.10738345

>>10738329
said no one, ever.

>> No.10738349

>>10738317
https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

This guy is one of the best chart/TA guys I've ever seen in crypto. He used to go by Masterluc on the bitcointalk forums. Go through his shit and come back and tell me TA doesn't work.

>> No.10738354

>>10738291

There is absolutely no indicator BTC will touch that trend line anytime soon. It could very well start the next bull run from here.

BTW I made around 400 000$ with crypto, so you should listen to someone far more experienced than you.

>> No.10738370

>>10738240
>Even a strategy like calling an arbitrary bottom
well it's more like allowing it to be the bottom but also allowing it not to be the bottom. yeah it's the most sound strategy. buy staggered be prepared for $6k to be the bottom adjust if turns out not to be. many expect this to be a long bear market but that will not happen this time. it will be a short one and we will attack $100k within a year.

>> No.10738375
File: 610 KB, 800x450, cones.webm [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738375

>>10737218
meme line this webm pls

>> No.10738380

>>10738345
i'm confused now then wtf did you try to imply here? >>10738239

>> No.10738384

Give all your strength for bitscoin to break 6600

>> No.10738392

>>10738303
You're seem upset. I think you're gains have made you cocksure and overconfident. You've made a lot of money and that's great. I'm truly jealous. But, your rationale doesn't make sense to me. Perhaps I'm not smart enough to see how it makes sense. But, nevertheless, I can't bet on something I don't understand.

>> No.10738402

>>10738384
Thank

>> No.10738407

>>10737994
fuckkkkk i think 3k seems like the bottom too. damn.

>> No.10738416

>>10738407
why damn? that's like beyond a wet dream.

>> No.10738418
File: 414 KB, 2928x1594, Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 5.51.59 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738418

>>10738349

Well, faggot.

The first chart I clicked on of his was pretty wrong. lmao... dare I even give this fool another second of my life?

>> No.10738436
File: 298 KB, 1956x1640, Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 5.53.51 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738436

>>10738349

Oh shit, well heres the second one I checked out... not looking good bud...

>> No.10738451

>>10738418
>>10738436
sssh! you just have to move the lines if they don't check out! everybody doing ta knows this.

>> No.10738482

>>10738418
Too soon to say

>>10738436
Definitely no cherry picking of his worst calls on your part, no siree.

>> No.10738512

>>10738482

> too soon to say

lulz he drew specific lines and the price didn't follow...

>> No.10738551
File: 236 KB, 1334x750, F9368D00-9C2F-44B0-BD68-CDF9225F4641.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738551

It honestly looks like it getting tighter and starting to flatline though. I honestly am not sure whether 3k will come or if it’ll find support at $5800-6000. Also ethereum is at a 9month low and we haven’t seen these levels since November 2017. It’s almost like playing Russian roulette to try and sell right now and buy in cheaper. Idk what to do.

>> No.10738581
File: 64 KB, 618x597, 1515904243067.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10738581

>>10737218
First it was memelines, now it's memecircles.
Jesus Christ

>> No.10738628

I bet I could compile enough price charts to show that the historical prices have little to do with the future prices. I'm sure I could find many charts which were similar in one period of time, but then diverge from each other seemingly randomly. This would show that future price movements are independent of past price movements.

Would this be enough?

>> No.10738784

>>10738551
imo don't sell if it goes lower buy more

>> No.10738796

>>10738628
no he will call it cherry picking you would waste a lot of time

>> No.10738805

>>10738581
wait for the meme spheres and cubes..

>> No.10738830

>>10738061
>pulls retarded predictions out of his ass with absolutely no basis
well this is probably the last thing i will post in this thread i had enough
my main reason for that prediction and bet is it's the only scenario that will change my life. i limit my exposure to 10% i can't take more chances with btc. but if it doesn't go above $500k it won't make a significant enough difference in my savings and investments. so there it is i agree it could go a hundred other ways but those are of no interest to me.

>> No.10738877

>>10737218
Oh, thank you very much /biz/, but, are you recomended me that buy today or buy the day that btc reach to 50k?

>> No.10738923

Based on BTC Halving every four years the price explodes because the Block Reward reduces and BTC scarcity:

In 2020, BTC Block Reward will be 6.25

In 2024, BTC Block Reward will be 3.125

In 2028, BTC Block Reward will be 1.5625

In 2032, BTC Block Reward will be 0.78125

>> No.10738991

>>10737218
>>10737218
Bahaha a fucking circle inscribed in a triangle what will they come up with next? The top vertex of the triangle is completely arbitrary and only decided for the circle. This is no different than a normal ass descending triangle

>> No.10739019

>>10737218
Nigga this looks like something Barney Rubble would be rolling up in

>> No.10739093

An two points form an angle with a third point creating a triangle.

A concentric circle is created within it whose radius is determined by the bounds of the triangle

Congrats OP, you've discovered geometry

>> No.10739365
File: 18 KB, 800x600, every single ta.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10739365

>>10737218

>> No.10739440

>>10737218
> muh triangles
Kys OP

>> No.10739519

>>10737218
Meanwhile Cliff High thinks you're telling the absolute truth cause durrrr muh web bot

>> No.10739657
File: 724 KB, 200x150, 33154CBA-090B-466D-9504-6D5E8993A64B.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10739657

>>10737218
You chumps need to read don Kruger’s equilibria theory on stochastic singularities within complex financial arguments.

All you need to know about bitcoins future is in there. He breaks down the Elliot convergences that lead to bull runs. It’s absolutely mental.

>> No.10739955

>>10737218
Your TA is shit but your conclusion is ironically correct.

>> No.10740648

>>10737218
Thats what i call a well tought TA! Well done. Thanks just bought 100k.

>> No.10740663

>>10737448
Now do one with the 2013 consolidation overlayed and then the two averaged

>> No.10740825

>>10739657

Any links to resources?

>> No.10740925

>>10737850
what exchange or site is this chart from?

>> No.10741792

>>10737780
>Don Kruger equilibria theory
talks about resistance line, but it keeps getting lower and lower lol

>> No.10741972

>>10738039
You're a brainlet. The fact that you feel so smug about it only makes you more of a brainlet. Unironically end your existence and stop bringing collective IQ down.

>> No.10741991

>>10737218
Bitcoin would be lucky to reach December ATH again. People were buying crypto with credit cards and loans. Now that most of that is banned by banks, it's harder for people dump money into crypto.

>> No.10742045

>>10738291
It's reasonable to assume we'll touch 200 MA, but there are few things that could invalidate your theory. That is, increasing mining difficulty (BTC is not profitable to mine at 6k assuming retail electricity prices in any country in the world that matters, including China) and potential ETF approval.

>> No.10742049

>>10737313
That's pretty much how all technical analysis is.

>> No.10742113

>>10738291
Anyway, honestly thanks for your opinion. I'll be ready to increase my position if we do hit 3k.

>> No.10742685
File: 10 KB, 250x187, AE192A32-9F1F-4BE5-BE06-BAFE9C28F4DD.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10742685

DON KRUGER

>> No.10742732

>>10741991

Less shitcoin investments more money into bitcone

>> No.10742752
File: 31 KB, 317x267, B58A78DB-4892-43AD-B3D3-321656BB9BB1.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10742752

>>10737218
>Elliot waves

>> No.10742769
File: 108 KB, 509x650, survilehy.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10742769

>>10737494
Are you 15? You sound like you are about 15. But half these faggots are listening to you, which makes me think half of biz is about 15.

>> No.10742770

>>10737365
TA works because you are chatting HUMAN EMOTION not price action. You can literally look at any chart from basedbeans to blue chip stocks,. All of them share the exact same cycles of HUMAN EMOTION and PSYCOLOGY.

>> No.10742781

>>10742770
Psychology****

>> No.10742786

>>10742770
Charting****

God damn auto correct

>> No.10742791
File: 134 KB, 500x535, think about elliot.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10742791

>>10737218
>Elliot waves

>> No.10742842

>>10738291

250k really isn’t that impressive. I took heavy losses and used zero TA, and made a lot more from August to January.

>> No.10743075
File: 433 KB, 900x900, 32845124_p0.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10743075

Uhm, guys? Why not first see if you are a good at predicting price first by picking random spots at the chart and then making a guess. You can actually verify it if you were right.

>> No.10743315
File: 17 KB, 212x200, 36DB7E38-4734-4597-8839-BCF6C32FC595.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10743315

>>10743075

>> No.10743353
File: 341 KB, 779x777, 53519218-5653-4A19-B038-76AFD595E015.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
10743353

>>10741991

>> No.10743697

>>10739657
What does it say?