/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>10162332
it's 2/3 are you an absolute brainlet or what?

mods pls delete

anyone who is newfag:
you either drew the 1st gold ball in the first box
the 2nd gold ball in the first box
or the 1st (only) gold ball in the second box

so for the second draw you may draw:
the second gold ball in the first box
the first gold ball in the first box
or the silver ball in the second box
2/3

>>10162350
Absolute state of biz

>>10162332
>>10162380
absolute state of /biz/

>>10162350
>>10162356

Please don’t reproduce. You picked a gold ball. It’s one of two boxes that had gold balls in them. If you take the one remaining ball in that same box, it is either gold if you have box 1 or silver if you have box 2. 1/2. Jesus Christ.

If you took a gold ball, then the other one has to be silver or gold. The box with two silver balls is out of the game. 50%

>>10162428
let me make it easier to understand for brainlets such as yourself and others that might be reading. Imagine if box number 1 had 99 gold balls and box number 2 would have 1 gold ball and 98 silver balls. If you drew a gold ball from a random box, what would be the chance of drawing another gold ball from the same box again? (hint: it's not 50%)

>>10162356
I don't know if we're getting memed or not, but the question would be easier for them to understand if each ball was labeled a letter. Then they'd realized picking up ball A and ball B, both gold balls in the first box, are different events.

>>10162428
I hope you're trolling, learn conditional probability my black man. It's two thirds

>>10162458

This makes no sense. You took one of the balls out. One ball is remaining in the box. If you take that last ball out, it is either gold if you have box 1 or silver if box 2. How are you this dumb? And so certain of your wrong answer?

>>10162332
oh look it's FAG op again, posting non Biz related shit and or BRAPS

away with you faggot!

Someone wrote a program that ran this simulation 10000 times and the answer is 2/3. You can easily reproduce this in a programming language or hell even real life. But you choose to be ignorant faggots and shit up the board regardless.

>>10162525
do you literally not have anything better to do than pretend to be retarded on 4chan

It's 50%, this isn't the fucking Monty Hall problem

>>10162525
I hope you're just trolling, but just in case you aren't: if you took a gold ball, then 1 out of three possible things happened.
A. you took gold ball 1 from box 1
B. you took gold ball 2 from box 1
C. you took the golden ball from box 2
In case of both A and B, the second ball would also be gold, so the answer is 2/3. If you still don't understand, then I'm sorry, it can't be dumbed down any further.

>>10162592
For the color it doesn‘t matter if it‘s ball 1 or 2.
If you want them to be different events, label them differently.

Go and test this yourself — it’s 2/3 and you’re retarded if you say no in the face of overwhelming evidence

Code:
https://onlinegdb.com/BkD2BWnzQ

Just click the green run and look @ console

The odds of sticking your hand in either the box with 2 golden balls or one golden and two silver balls are the same: 1/3.

However, having stuck your hand hand in the box with 2 golden balls, the odds of picking up a golden ball is 100%, while it's only 50% in the other box.

After the fact then, having picked up a golden ball, it's clear the it's more likely that you stuck your hand in the box with 2 golden balls. In fact, it's twice as likely: 1/3*1/1 : 1/3*1/2.

The consequent outcome ratio is in other words 2:1, so the odds of picking up another golden ball is 2/(total outcome space := 2 + 1) = 66%

>>10162857
Addendum: the error is not realizing that it's more probable that you are in the box with 2 golden balls after having picked up a golden ball, and not taking in account the effect that has on the odds of picking up yet another golden ball.

there are two boxes you can xhoose from
box 1 is 100% chance of second gold
box 2 is 0% chance
50% of getting second gold

it's so simple
YOUR HAND GOES INTO ONE BOX ONLY

>>10162883
>>10162857
Finally, a coherent explanation that’s easy enough for any bizlet to understand

If you still don’t understand this, do yourself a favor and tie a rope

>>10162592
the balls aren't numbered you dumb fuck
it's gold ball and silver ball
trying this hard so you aren't fucking wrong

two boxes
one result is gold
the other result is silver
50/50 it's Entirely dependant on WHICH BOX YOU choose. only two boxes. do the fucking math.

>>10162883
the laws of this question state that your first ball will be gold. probability does not coke into play there. and the question is asked AFTER YOU pick the first gold removing a gold from either box from the equation

>>10162989
>>10162977
Congratulations on being sub-100 tier. I want to personally thank you for playing the losing end of the zero-sum-game that is trading. Please never leave.

>>10162989
Probability decides which box you stick your hand in. It's more likely you get a golden ball from the box with only golden balls. >>10162989
Probability decides which box you stick your hand in. It's more likely you get a golden ball from the box with only golden balls.

>>10162332
1/2 obviously
t. 100% portfolio in link

The question is "What's the chance the next ball is gold?" but the entire thing itself IS about the boxes, and the fact you already know what they contain; you just don't know which box you picked from. The answer to the question ("What's the chance the next ball is gold?"), lies in the fact that you already picked a gold ball. This fact means there's a 50/50 chance the box has another gold ball.

Why should already be obvious. But it's because there'a a 50/50 chance of that box being the box which contains two gold balls. If it's not that box, then it's the box with one silver and one gold - and in that case you already took that gold ball so the remaining one is the silver.

(continued in next message...)

>>10163104

continued:

Think of it this way:

Say you're given 3 cars. All are identical models and in identical condition. They're brand new and there's nothing wrong with them. They run on gasoline. All are unlocked and all have their keys laying on the drivers seat. BUT all of the cars have their fuel gauge removed, so you can't know how much fuel is in the tank.

>one has a totally empty gas tank and there's absolutely no traces of gasoline left anywhere, so the car won't even start
>one has a full tank of gas
>one has a tank filled with lots of gas but it isn't full

You're informed of the above. But you're not allowed to check (in any way) how much gas is in any of the cars.

You're told to drive one of the cars to a destination so far away that it will exactly need a full tank of gas and there's no gas station along the road and you're not allowed to bring any gas in any manner. You're only allowed to refuel once you reach the destination. You will be left alone on the road. Nothing will interfere with you. There are no other vehicles on the road and the weather is perfect and you're a good driver, so there's no chance of an accident.

You get in to one car. You turn the key and it starts!

The question: Now, what's the chance you will be able to drive to the destination?

Answer: It's 50/50. Because the car started, which means it's not the car without gas. It must be either the car with a full tank, or the car with lots of gas (but not full). So you have a 50/50 chance of having enough gas to reach the destination.

>>10163066
>>10162857
These pretty much.

>>10162332
It's 2/3.

Deal with it.

>people unironically think it's anything besides 50%

>>10163114
The question of course isn't "did you pick the car with enough gas" or "does your tank contain enough gas" but that's what it's all about, because that determines the "Yes" or "No" to the question "Will I be able to drive this car to the destination?" Likewise, the actual question, in effect, here is "Which box are you picking from?" and there's only 2 possibilities.

>>10162435
There are three possible golden balls you took on the first go though.

>>10162857

>The odds of sticking your hand in either the box with 2 golden balls or one golden and two silver balls are the same: 1/3.

troll stopped reading right there

>>10162977
>having the audacity to call someone a dumb fuck when you're an utterly clueless retard
is there something important going on right now? like, are these threads just bait to distract us from something important?

>>10162989
>and the question is asked AFTER YOU pick the first gold removing a gold from either box from the equation
That's precisely the point. But, given that we did remove a golden ball, where would you bet we removed it from?

Basically, realize that there's a chance to fail to remove a golden ball if you stick your hand in the box with both a golden and a silver ball. What is more likely, that we stuck our hand in a box and overcame the opportunity to fail, or stuck our hand in another box and didn't encounter it what so ever?

>HUUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR IT'S EITHER GOLD OR SILVER SO THAT MEANS IT'S 50/50

The brainletism is overwhelming.

>>10163066
the question is not what's the chance you pick a gold ball as your first
the first ball is always gold
question is in regards to the second ball of which there are only two options, gold and silver depending on one of two boxes
50/50

>>10163171
>huur there's three balls left and two are gold so 2/3 huur duur my hand can magically go into two boxes at once

Having picked a gold ball, you can exclude the right side box right off the bat, leaving you with only 2 boxes in the game. this means you picked either the winning box or the losing box, 50/50

>>10163195
You don't know what box you put your hand into.
The chance that the next one is gold is twice as large as the chance that the next one is going to be silver.

>>10163195
>my hand can magically go into two boxes at once.
The probability that lead you to pick the first ball is what's defining the 2/3, not a starting point of you have a ball, not determine if the next one you draw is gold

>>10163213
god damn idiot there are only two boxes ffs

>>10163104
>>10163114
>>10163143
Your whole anology is flawed, because the car that has lots of gas (not full) still starts with 100% probability, which is not the case for the silver+gold ball box.

If the probability that the car started on medium fuel was 50%, the outcome were the same (2/3).

>>10163220
But two balls in each box.

If you picked a golden ball, there are two scenarios that it came from box 1, and only one scenario that it came out of box 2.

That means two scenarios whereby the next one is gold vs one scenario that it came out of box 2.

2/3

>>10162332
of course if you put the first ball back after you pick it its 2/3 but obviously you dont put it back in the box, so its 50%

>>10163215
the question is what is the probability OF THE SECOND BOX, it doesen't matter if picking the first had an odd of 1/3 or 1/99, the answer is 50%

>>10163237
dud that is not how probability works, after one ball is out the odds change.

>>10163213
exactly. only two boxes. 50/50. picking the box is the entire point dude

>to this day, there are still people who don't understand conditional probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

The probability of A (picking a gold ball) given B (picking a gold ball) = probability of picking A and B (i.e. picking two gold balls, ie 1/3 because only one box) / probability of picking B (i.e. 1/2 because there are 3 gold balls and 3 silver ones)
Hence (1/3) / (1/2) = 2/3, 66%

Suppose I say there's a golden ball in box 2, what are the odds there's a second golden ball there? Could it be 50%?

>>10163246
Not it isn't, the question is the probability of the box you picked in the beginning having 2 gold balls. That is 2/3

>>10162332
It's 2/3. A prof gave me this exact puzzle in a probability course last year. It's a test of READING COMPREHENSION

>>10163291
Lol no

>>10163246
Idiot, read the damn thing carefully

>...and take a ball from that box at random. It's a gold ball.
>It's a gold ball.

Everyone thinking that there are two ways to draw a gold ball is wrong. There is only one way to draw a gold ball, and that is to draw a gold ball (NOT draw gold ball 1 or draw gold ball 2).

Conditional probability. It's 50%.

>>10163264
>>10163261
>>10162332
>>10162435
>>10162573
>>10162960
>>10162977
>>10163091
>>10163114
>>10163104
>>10163137
>>10163184
>>10163305

50% brainlets BTFO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
>Solution[edit]
>It may seem that the probability that the remaining coin is gold is 1/2, but in truth, the probability is actually 2/3.
>If a gold coin was withdrawn in the first step, it is more likely that this happens because the chosen box is number 1 (the box with two gold coins) than box number 3 (the box with one coin of each type).

>>10163299
You already chose a golden ball from a box. The question now is what is the probability of choosing another golden ball from that SAME BOX.

This help?

>>10163325
The question was stated in the OP already.

>>10163343
K you're trolling

Well?

Because you already picked a gold ball, the chance of being in the box with 2 silver balls disappears. It's 2/3

>>10163396
You fucked it up.

>>10162350
>>10162356
>>10162428
>>10162458
>>10162566
>>10162592
>>10162549
>>10162527
>>10163035
>>10163135
>>10163171
>>10163237
>>10163291
>>10163317

66.66% autistic brainlets BTFO'd forever.

Three golden balls you could pick on the first draw:

1) Box 1, left ball
2) Box 1, right ball
3) Box 2, left ball

this leaves three scenarios after you pick the first golden ball:

Scenario 1: You picked ball 1), next ball is gold.
Scenario 2: You picked ball 2) next ball is gold.
Scenario 3: You picked ball 3) next ball is silver.

Now ask yourself, do you honestly believe that any of these three scenarios is impossible?
No?
Then you MUST agree that the solution is 2/3.

As posited by Joseph Bertrand who invented this problem in the 19th century.

>>10163408
If you want to really capture what has "already happened" then you need three possible scenarios each with a different one of the gold balls X'd out. Maybe then you'll realize why you're a dipshit

>2/3 and 1/3 people
>not pretend-smart people posing to the public

>>10163420
Maybe this explanation will be simple enough for you 50 brainlets!

>>10163408
If the ball you took out of the box is gold, there's a 2/3 chance that it came from box 1.

See >>10163420

Also, this particular problem is called "Bertrand's box paradox", named after 19th-century mathematician Joseph Bertrand who invented it.
And he says it's 2/3.

>>10163445
there are two possible options for boxes to take from, as you are guaranteed a gold at start. The three-box is an illusion

>>10163368
No, your reading comprehension is deficient, though.

>Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

So /biz/? Do you switch?

>>10163482
No, there are THREE possible scenarios to begin from because there are THREE golden balls. ONE of them you will choose first. Two scenarios from box 1, one scenario from box 2. >>10163420
>>10163420
>>10163420
>>10163420

>>10162332
gold is heavier so i could tell which one which by their weight and sound if i shake them a bit. gold is soft silver has a unique sound. i would get 100% to pick gold imo.

>>10163468
Look more closely. This isn't Bertrand's paradox. You are ignoring the rules layed out in the question. And you "need" to do so, in order to force a 2/3 answer.

Suppose some man has his dick in another man's behind.

What are the odds he'll have his dick in another man's behind on another day? Relatively high. The man is probably a faggot, and not victim of some rare passing tranny.

>>10163504
The boxes are uniform choice-objects. Not balls.

>>10163496
Switch.

First choice was 1 out of 3.

Second choice you get 1 out of 2, much better odds.

>>10163496
How are goats /biz/-related?

>>10163496
yes, it's beneficial to switch because it's more likely you chose a door with a goat on your first pick. But seeing the bunch of brainlets we have here on /biz/, people will probably argue over this as well. Then again, there's really no reason to expect anything from people who buy high and sell low.

>>10163496
Yep. You should switch.

Why? Because chances are (2/3) you selected a GOAT by random, the host reveals to you a GOAT, meaning the final door is most likely a CAR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cAbgAaEOVE

>>10163496
Yes, because 2/3. Same question as OP. The host can't open my door so the goat is 2/3 chanche behind door No.2

>>10163496
You switch. 2 thirds of winning that way.

>muh Bertrand
>muh appeal to authority
2/3ers are braindead

>>10163496
Not in ANY way even remotely equivalent to the OP pic question.

>>10163496
Nothing is ever 50:50, judging from this thread. I say switch!

>>10163516
>This isn't Bertrand's paradox.
L O L
O
L

It literally is.

>>10163496

B = probability of picking silver after picking gold *
Op = 1-B.
B = prob of picking gold after picking silver **
Therefore with * and **:
B = prob of picking gold after silver or silver after gold
=prob of picking the middle box
= 1/3

Op = 1-1/3 =2/3.

>>10163534
>>10163420
If you retards really can't understand these two basic ass posts, there is truly no hope for you

>>10163556
Go back to elementary school and learn to read.

>>10163598
>>10163516
Directly from the wiki I linked:

>There are three boxes:
>a box containing two gold coins,
>a box containing two silver coins,
>a box containing one gold coin and a silver coin.
>The 'paradox' is in the probability, after choosing a box at random and withdrawing one coin at random, if that happens to be a gold coin, of the next coin drawn from the same box also being a gold coin.

LITERALLY the same problem as in OP.

Your coping skills are GARBAGE and nobody likes you.

Once you pick a ball, you remove the previous probabilities. you have already picked a gold ball. assuming it **was** more likely from one box or the other is flawed.

>>10163620
>after choosing a box at random and withdrawing one coin at random
at random from two boxes, where you magically get to choose a gold one, evading the laws of the universe.

>>10163667
The fuck are you talking about?
It says you pick a ball and it happens to be gold.
Exactly like in OP.

Sweet jesus you're losing grip on reality.

>>10163683
Like the other anon said, you lack reading comprehension.

>>10163620
Literally not the same. One version has 3 boxes as a mathematical factor part of the equation, the other doesn't.

>mfw looking beyond the superficial similarities and actually comprehending the op version is too difficult for the 66,6 percenters.

>>10162458
You have two boxes. Two possibilities. Only two. It really is that simple.

>>10163408
>>10163317

Instead of arguing about the result, you should be arguing about the implementation. I wrote a short script to cover the question and it shows a 50% ratio between silver and gold.

If you disagree then change the script and run it yourself:
https://pastebin.com/S7av9QLk

>>10162332

I remember that thread, the people who said 2/3 were all nolinkers.

>>10163816
hows that windows working out for ya

>>10163836
50%er from the start. 100% in link

>>10163816
Dammit, there's already a mistake. The first comment is wrong. The silver-silver box is included.

>>10162458
>you pick a gold ball
>you know for a fact that you can't draw from the 2 silver ball box, therefore your choices are down to two boxes.
>since you don't know what box it came in, you can't speculate about the box itself
>but you can eliminate the third box.
>the box you choose will either be one with another gold ball or one with a silver ball.

>>10162332
the chance at picking a box with 2 gold balls before you pick 1 ball is 33%

the chance at picking a box with 2 gold balls after you've already chosen a ball and found it to be gold, is 50%

There are people posting on /biz/ right now who unironically believe it's 2/3.

>>10163836
>>10163852
>stinkes think this is a good thing

>>10163868
but is it more likely that it came from the box with 99 gold balls in it or from the box with only 1 gold ball and 98 silver balls in it? Even /biz/ can't actually be this stupid

>>10163868
Jesus Christ

>>10162332
pls no

EOS = KING

>>10163727
>>10163745
You are beyond retarded, they're the exact same problem.

Three boxes:
1) one with two gold coins
2) one with two silver coins
3) one with a gold and a silver coin.

You pick a box, and take a coin out, and it's gold.
What's the probability of the next one also being gold from the same box?

This is exactly the same thing as in OP.

>>10163291
>It's a test of READING COMPREHENSION
Exactly. When you get the gold ball you know there's a 50% chance the next ball will be silver and 50% chance it will be gold. Because you know the box you picked from wasn't the silver only box.

>>10163923
>You pick a box, and take a coin out, and it's gold.
magic!

seriously the people they can't read properly and think into it too much
Brainlets

>>10163876
The mathematician who invented the problem in the 19th century says it's 2/3.

>>10163902
I literally just did this with gummy bears. 2 red, 1 red 1 green, 2 green.
I recorded by which bear I got. If I got a green, I would record the probability it was green again.
It was statistically closer to 50% than 2/3

>>10163943
That's the premise you goof.

>>10163902
The question isn't "you picked a gold ball, what was the likelyhood of that?"

>You flip a coin 5 times.
>It's heads 4 straight times.
>What's the probability the next time you flip the coin it will be heads?

>>10163958
then your sample size was probably too small and you had to do it more times to get closer to 2/3. How can you possibly fathom it to be 50% after actually trying it out is beyond me. There is obviously a much higher chance to get a green bear from the pair of two green bears than from the green/red pair.

>>10163958
>It was statistically closer to 50% than 2/3
Not how probability works.

If you toss a coin it could very well land heads up four times in a row, even though the odds are always 50/50.

Better to recreate the three scenarios laid out here: >>10163420

>>10163982
50/50 every time.

>>10163973
it basically is, since the likelihood of that is directly correlated to the likelihood of what you draw next.

the question says that you already picked a random box and pulled out a gold ball

and because you pulled out a gold ball, it's more likely that you picked box #1 instead of box #2

for box #1 you're guaranteed to pick a second gold ball, while for box #2 you're guaranteed to pick a silver ball

so it's more likely that you picked the box that guarantees a second gold ball

t. ark holder

If you picked 50% get out of crypto because you are not gonna make it and will lose money

>>10163923
Neither of the questions are problems. The problem is inside your head. The OP doesn't involve 3 boxes as part of the math itself. That's what you can't understand. You're desperately trying to build a strawman (hurr durr this is totally the same as the wiki question) and use that to defend your position.

>>10164068
The premise in OP is Bertrand's box paradox. Literally.
And Bertrand said it's 2/3.

>>10163958
>>10163991

Wow you guys are morons.

>>10164037
says the 2/3rd faggot
i bet you use complicates indicators and patterns for ta instead of basic horizontal lines and 100/200 moving averages

>>10163496
I never liked the phrasing of this problem because game shows are tricky. It simply asks "Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?". Now maybe this is just because I got it wrong the first time I heard this problem, but why the fuck should I go along with the game hosts suggestion? There are better ways to phrase this problem.

>>10163982
2/3 obviously

>>10164315
They always leave out the fact that the host always shows a donkey as part of the game, that's the crucial thing. When people leave that out it just shows they don't even understand the problem and they're just regurgitating it and then looking smart when you get it wrong and they know the right answer.

>>10162516
Except if you already have a gold ball in your hand, the box with two silver balls is eliminated. This means you have a 50/50 chance of getting a silver ball.

>>10162592
Everybody look at this failure.

>>10164078
he was wrong, it's 50%.

>>10162356
>mods
AHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>10162332

It warms my heart that there are so many morons in this market.

>>10164446
Same desu. Kind of like reassurance

>people still think all four balls are in the one box
lmaoc

>>10164373
Everybody look at this failure.

Don't misgender those balls

>>10164471
You have one of two possible outcomes, dipshit. It's a coinflip, you Aboriginal AHAHAHAHAHA

>>10164471
AAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA YOU'LL NEVER FEEL A VAGINA

>>10163317
>>10163135

Yeah the obvious answer is that it's 50%, but once you realize the answer is actually 2/3, you can't really go back to seeing it being 50%. It's like the gold/blue dress thing.

Even though there are only 2 colors and 2 boxes remaining, there's a 50% chance we'r in either box. We don't know which box we're in. We do know that 2/3 of the remaining 3 coins are gold. Therefore the odds of picking a gold coin are 2/3.

>>10164567
>all balls are in the same box
Brainlet

>>10164567
There's not a 50% chance we're in either box though, if there was it'd be 50/50

>>10164515
What is amazing is not that you simply got it wrong but that the answer is all over this thread and you still insist it's 50/50. Some advice: leave crypto it will not be good to you.

>>10164584
Point to where in my post I said that. I specifically said there are 2 remaining boxes.

Can you read English? If you can, brainlet, the answer is literally written in plain english for you right here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>10164567
the object of initial random choice is a box (out of two), not a ball.

Everyone, post your holdings and answer to this.
Link 100%. 50%er.

>>10162332
Plot Twist: I stole all six balls while you were arguing about it.

>>10164609
2/5
all in TRON

>>10162592
Possibility 1: you took out 1 ball from box1. Other one will be gold.
Possibility 2: You took out 1 ball from box 2. Other one will be silver.
That's it.

>>10164603
claiming you are right doesn't make it so
>>10164608
appeal to authority
and 2/3rd is still wrong
two outcomes entirely dependant on WHICH BOX YOU PICKED
two boxes
50/50
end of story

>bbbut there's slightly more chance the gold ball you picked came from box 1!!
irrelevant. laws of the universe state your first box is a gold, by random chance.

>>10164753
there are 2 gold balls left after you pick your gold one, versus one silver ball

2/3

It's amazing how so many 50 percenters are so convinced... reminds me of flat earthers

the best thing is the 50 percenters are arguing against the guy who invented the problem.. claiming an appeal to authority fallacy.. when the solution is up there on wikipedia

THE EARTH IS FLAT

>>10164931
it literally explains everything.. replace 'coin' with 'ball'

god people are so dumb

>>10164931
it's not the same question
there are changes in OPS one
learn to read
>>10164898
there are two boxes, and your hand only goes into one

>>10164753
>claiming you are right doesn't make it so
>appeal to authority
>and 2/3rd is still wrong

It's mathematically spelled out for you in that wikipedia article, you should take a look frendo

>>10164951
two boxes and the outcome is 100% dependant on WHICH BOX YOU PICK

50/50 chance of getting a second gold
50/50 chance of getting a silver as the second
end of fucking discussion

>bbbut if we pretend all balls are in the same box!
>bbbut if we pretend the question was "what's the chance of the first gold ball coming from the double gold box!:

>>10164948
>"What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?"

given that you picked a gold ball from either box 1 or 2

there are 2 gold balls left, and one silver ball

you are twice more likely to pick a gold ball than a silver one knowing that you picked box 1 or 2. kill yourself

>>10165015
>>10164948
worse than a flat earther

there are TWO gold balls and ONE silver you thick headed cunt

>>10165015
the fact that you constantly misspell 'dependent' is telling. once and I wouldn't have mentioned it. but you are clearly and inbred cunt

Its obviously 4/7

>>10163816
Your code shows the answer is 2/3

Wording is important.
>If the first ball you take out happens to be gold, what is the probability that the next ball in the same box will also be gold?
In this case, you start calculating the probability BEFORE you make your pick. The answer is 2/3. It can be reworded as "We have six balls. We pick one at random. If we disregard the times we picked number 4, 5, or 6, what is the chance that our pick is ball number 1 or 2?"
That's not what OP's image asked though. It says:
>It's a gold ball. What is the probability that the next ball in the same box will also be gold?
The situation is different than before. There are no "what ifs" in the question. You already have a gold ball in your hand and you know that the box you pulled it out of contains either one gold or one silver ball with a 50/50 probability. The correct answer in this case is 50%.

You pick a box at random. Probability of picking a box with a gold ball: 2/3

You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. Probability of picking a gold ball from the picked box: 3/4

Probability that the next ball from the same box to be gold: 1/2

Total probability = 2/3 * 3/4 * 1/2 = 1/2*1/2 = 1/4 (25%)

>>10162332
its 2/3, those saying 50% either never took a probability class or simply suck at math/logic

>>10165332
the fact you first picked a gold ball already increases the chance you are in box 1, therefore chances of picking other gold are higher than 50%

>>10165032
and two boxes you gay faggot

>>10165488
there's two boxes, not one
so much for your logic

>>10165211
Nice b8.

https://repl.it/repls/PastelWelcomeBlocks

>>10165211
I never said it wasn't. The ratio is 50%. The chance is 2/3

100% cause I always grab dem gold balls

>tfw you look in the archives for these threads and 70% of the replies in this thread are just copied and pasted over from those threads to provoke a maximum reply instinct
>it's literally the same guy who's been doing this on 4chan for YEARS at this point

Holy crap

>>10165693
math, probability and logic problems always trigger the masses, sort of a rush to show who is smarter, and they are almost always wrong

>>10165332
Brainlet detected. The two statements you mentioned are the same mathematically.

>>10165538
Upon further reflection, I have to admit that I was wrong. You are correct, it's 2/3 in both cases.

>>10165538
The determing factor on if you pick a gold ball next is based on which box you chose, not which individual ball you picked. The balls aren't single entities as they are tied to a container. The determining factor on the end result is purely based on the container you chose and not which individual gold ball you chose. The anwser is 50%

>>10165693
I start a lot of these threads and of I don't I'm always the one to bump and bring them to bump limit

anybody that isn't a chainlink holder, that still thinks it's 50/50 . . . please notice that every single chainlink holder thinks it's 50/50.

possibility 1: you picked a ball from the box with 2 gold
possibility 2: you picked a ball from the box with 1 gold
chances to pick a gold ball from the box with 2 gold: 2
chances to pick a gold ball from the box with 1 gold: 1
number of possible scenarios: 2 + 1 = 3
odds of possibility 1: 2/3
odds of possibility 2: 1/3

saying its 50/50 is like saying you have a 50/50 chance of dying every time you drive on a public road, since the only two outcomes are 1) you live or 2) you die.

>>10165864
It doesn't matter that there are multiple possibilities within each box. We understand the math mate. What you fail to understand is that a computer program can't properly similate this scenario. A program has to make an instance for each individual ball. The prgram knows beforehand what is inside each container. The question is proposed as if its a human who can't see whats inside each container. The fact that you picked gold #1 or gold #2 from box #1 is irrelevant. The reason being that to get to either of those balls you had to choose box#1. You 2/3d tards fail to see that Choosing a container is part of the scenario. Not only is it part of it but since choosing a container is a prerequisite it superscedes which individual ball was picked. In the way the question is asked, a human picking a gold ball for their second pick from a container they don't know the contents of is detirmined purely by which container they choose.

why are you sad lonely losers even arguing about this when the answer is KNOWN to be 2/3rds?

it's a SOLVED PROBLEM. there's no debate, the whole point of it is to trick people into thinking it's 1/2 so they can LEARN why they're WRONG.

where did OP go? damn such an embarrassment

>muh ego
>muh pride

Just wrote a little program to test this.
Here's the results:

Iterations: 10000
Gold picks: 6639
Silver picks: 3361

>>10162332
> There are people online on this board right now who don't think it's 2/3 but still think they're going to make it

>>10165864
>please notice that every single chainlink holder thinks it's 50/50.
Doesn't surprise me, linkers are the biggest example of brainlets dreaming of being clever. You could just invest in the leading smart contract platform and make as much money as link even if link succeeds.

>>10162549
if you had to run a simulation you're probably a white brainlet or something

>>10165538
just give up imo.
/pol/tards and magapedes can't draw inferences based on events of the past to predict the future, or understand the nuanced influences of unknown factors
they can only see what's right in front of them at the moment, like dogs. that's why they get played like fiddles by their orange god emperor and his media arm

>>10166380
What is pic related?

>>10166175
Its been explained that a program can't properly similate the problem. If you proposed this problem to people in real life and recorded the sucess of a gold ball on the second pick of only those who picked gold on their first then the probability would reflect 50%.

>>10166472
>Its been explained that a program can't properly similate the problem

this is retardedly false and its quite sad the lack of knowledge you have

>>10166472

Why on fucking earth would it be different if people were doing the picking as opposed to a PRNG?

>>10162332
It’s 33 percent because for this to happens where you get two gold balls is 1 in 3 pretty easy

>>10166472

>>10166472
I'm literally lost for words. Even after this long of a thread there are people who don't get how basic probability works.

>>10166500
>>10166507
Its pretty simple and has been explained. The fact that there are two possible choices within one box is completely irrelevant.

If the middle box always nets you the gold ball which is how this questions is seemingly setup, is it still 2/3?

It isn't which is why this question is 100% bait. The question and the situation is different from bertrand's box paradox where the answer is obviously 2/3. People seem to think their are 3 options when in reality 2 of those options are the exact same.

To put this argument finally to a rest (because I'm a god and your mental superior) the question in this specific scenario is asking what are the chances you chose the box with 2 gold balls when you only have the choice of 2 boxes from the start.

>>10164446
Tell me about it, and not just here but the world in general

>>10166434
This.

>>10165973
I agree completely that choosing a container is the important part. but by the second draw you have already picked a container. the second draw is not about which ball you pick, its about which container you HAVE ALREADY PICKED. there are 6 ways to choose a container. 3 of them give you a silver ball on the first draw, 3 of them give you a gold ball. since we know we got a gold ball on the first draw, we discard 3 of those possibilities. In order for it to be 50/50 you would have to discard only 2 possibilities (the box of 2 silver). but you know that you didn't pull a silver ball from the box with one of each. Where are you accounting for that in your system? You're discarding the two silver balls (or the box of two silver balls) without thought as to how that affected the initial conditions of the second draw.

if you cant discuss this logic problem without getting emotional . . . well you aren't using logic then are you?

>>10166247
yeah i figure a chainlink holder is already a lost cause. they're never gonna figure it out.

>>10166928
maybe you should carefully reread the actual question instead of the version in your head.
>>10167067
so the two gold balls in the first box are the same ball because they are the same color/material? what reality are you from?
>>10167122
you had 3 boxes from the start. at the present, you know that your choice was one of two of those three boxes. the unknown is which of those two boxes was it. but you already picked from the 3 boxes. you can't pick again from the two boxes with at least 1 gold ball just because you know you didn't get the all silver box . . .

>>10166472
>>10166763
>someone else used words that i agree with, discussion over

>linkies will think its 50%

>>10165016
You aren't twice more likely to pick the double gold box just because it has more gold in it. .................

>>10167350
No their outcome is the exact same. They may as well be the same.
Here's a picture to better understand OP's bait image. The answer to the real question is 2/3 don't bother arguing that. The question simply isn't the same which is why there is so much confusion and arguing in the thread.

>>10167398
>hurr
Theres still two boxes and there being more gold in one doesn't make it more likely to pick that box


I can't believe the guy who made this has trolled so many idiots in death.

the answer is 50/50

i understand how the 2/3 is made but this is not the same question as this bertrand f4g

the question is in a vacuum; we have our hand in a box that either has a gold ball or a silver ball.

the goat one is a better example of the 2/3 shit

>>10167468
>You pick a box at random.
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random.
Focus on this. The ball you take out happens to be gold. Now did that gold ball come from box 1 or box 2 at equal probability?

Rephrasing the problem to help make this clear:
>You pick a box at random.
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random.
>It's a gold ball.
>What's the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
2/3

Every single fucking time. This image truly is the best math bait I've ever seen.

>>10167474
Having the possible choices of:
B1g1>b1g2
B1g2>b1g1
B2g1>b2s1

Is disenginous. It imples their are three distinct choices. There aren't. Its either you picked b1 which was right, or b2 which was wrong. For the anwser to be 2/3rds you would have to remove the boxes and combine the three remaining balls into a single container after the initial draw.

>>10167515
wow.
>there are two boxes. one has a gold ball in it, and one has a silver ball in it. your hand is inside one of the boxes. what are the odds you grab a gold ball?
You seriously think that's what the question is asking?

>>10167520

>What's the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
but thats not what the question was:

>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE NEXT BALL YOU TAKE FROM THE SAME BOX WILL ALSO BE GOLD
>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE NEXT BALL YOU TAKE FROM THE SAME BOX WILL ALSO BE GOLD
>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE NEXT BALL YOU TAKE FROM THE SAME BOX WILL ALSO BE GOLD

>>10167520
You are anwsering an entirely different question there bud.

>>10167555
>What's the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE NEXT BALL YOU TAKE FROM THE SAME BOX WILL ALSO BE GOLD
They're logically equivalent. If you think they're not, explain why.

>>10167474
>you are given a gold ball
no, you reached into a box and pull out a ball that happened to be gold. this is where the "magic" happened. You were not given a fucking ball! you did not "pick a box with a gold ball" you PICKED A BOX and PULLED OUT one of two balls and THAT BALL WAS GOLD. WHICH BOX DID YOU PICK?

>>10167577
Re read op's question. Let me know when you get a silver.

>>10167548
There are two boxes.
One allows for the possibilty to draw back to back gold balls and the other doesn't. Since you can't see whats in either box the amount of golds in either box has zero influence on which box you chose. 50%

>>10167558
yeah, we know. we've been trying to tell you. we're answering the actual question. read it again ten more times.

>>10167563
>They're logically equivalent.
To clarify this,

In order for this to happen:
>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

This *must* have happened too:
>What's the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?

>>10167577
Once again to finally reiterate as i won't again to you complete fucking brainlets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox IS RIGHT 100% RIGHT. Op's question is stated in a way to make you think it's the same paradox which it isn't, to recreate op's question in real life it would be >>10167474

>>10167582
I can't rewind time to grab a silver ball. That doesn't stop the past from affecting the present. In fact, it means we CAN'T STOP the past from affecting the present.

>>10167584
one allows two possibilities to draw a gold ball, one allows one possibility to draw a gold ball. Its not about the number of golds "influencing my choice". It's about the number of golds influencing my PAST CHANCES.

>>10167563
i reread the OP and youre right, you got me

the lynchpin is the "also"

>what is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?
= 2/3, because it is asking about the box youre in, not the balls in a vacuum (fuck, i wish Lisa was still in my life)

>what is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will be gold?
= 50/50

>>10167608
to recreate OP's ANSWER, yes

the question in OP IMAGE, which is the question form the last thread. is equivalent to bertrand's box.

>>10163408
Anyone else originally 2/3, then read this? Switch to 50%

>>10163420
Then read this, switch back? Was right to begin with

>>10163885
Also a linky, we have both retards and high iq individuals. Dum-dums are just more likely to post unfortunately. But this is a hard question, so I don't really blame them

>>10167563
>you pick a box at random. you put your hand in that box and take a ball, it is gold
First ball is a gold ball and that is that. 100% on the first gold ball. Whether you get a second gold or not depends on what box you chose.

>>10167608
>>10167474
Please explain how OP's question is different than Bertrand's paradox on wikipedia.

>>10167637
so there are no silver balls until the second draw?

that's what you're saying.

>>10167637
I get it now. The fact that box1 has 2 golds in it makes it more likely that your first choice was that box.

Fucking math

>>10167634
>>10167642
In order to be the paradox it would have to say.
>you get a gold/silver ball. What is the probability the next ball you take from the same box is also gold/silver.
Allowing for two different interpretations results in this thread.

>>10167653
Yes theres no possibility of picking a silver until the second pick because by some divine intervention your first draw is a gold.
But really if you want to get right down to it, it all comes down to the very start. What box you pick. One box will be a gold on second 100% of the time, the other will be gold on second 0% of the time (because your first draw was gold and that leaves the silver only). And two boxes... 1 in 2. 50/50. 50%.

>>10167676
Well yeah depends how you look at the question and when I turn my screen around it doesnt show answers on the back of the pic so idk what the proper interpretation of the question is how are we meant to know this is ridiculous

>>10167676
Thank you for realizing it's 2/3.

Again for others, rephrasing the problem to help make this clear:
>You pick a box at random.
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random.
>It's a gold ball.
>What is the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

Goddamn I hate this because I'll always think it is 1/2 without the equation but the conditional probability equation I learned in Statistics states it is 2/3.
No one is a brainlet for this problem because it is so counterintuitive. I got a 4.0 in Stats and a certificate of merit from the math department in that class and I still think it is 1/2 when I initially see it.

P(B|A) = P(A&B) / P(A)
P(GG|G) = P(G & GG) / P(G)
P(GG|G) = P(GG) / P(G)
P(GG|G) = (1/3) / (1/2)
P(GG|G) = 2/3

>>10167679
I also see all other explanations saying
>you happen to get
or
>suppose
None of them just state the result as that implies it's not truly random.

>>10167724
>You pick a box at random.
One box will give you desired outcome 100% of the time. Other box will not give you desired outcome at all.
It all comes down to which box you chose at random. Two boxes. 1 in 2.

>>10167745
Can you look at this statement:
>What is the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
Would you say it's 1/2?

And can you see how that statement is logically followed by:
>What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

>>10167773
>What is the probability the gold ball came from the box with 2 gold balls?
No and I agree with you there, but that isnt the question. You are still looking at it wrong.
There are three stages. 1/2 brainlet stage, 2/3 psued stage, 1/2 philosopher king stage. Step up bruh.

>>10167794
1/2 stage aka op is a fucking faggot stage and sage

>>10167733
Even if you remove the box with two silver balls you still get the same answer.
Just the first 2 boxes.
P(GG|G) = P(G & GG) / P(G)
P(GG|G) = (1/2) / (3/4)
P(GG|G) = (2/3)

>>10167700
You're just looking at the probabilities after having drawn gold. The silver is still there on your first pick. You can just as well look at probabilities of drawing silver again after having drawn silver once, but you'll end up with the same answer: 2/3.
Reversely, what is the chance of picking silver after having drawn gold? It can't be 1/2.

>>10167824
The answer is still 2/3 even though it logically seems to be 1/2.

>>10167849
Removing the all silver box helped me see it.
3 outcomes if you pick G.
2 of them are GG.
2/3

GG
GG
GS

>>10167828
Nah bro you still aint getting it
The desired outcome can only happen with a single box. There are two boxes. You pick a box at random. One box is success no matter what the first or second ball is, one box is failure no matter what the first or second ball is. 50% of drawing a second gold.

>>10167849
If it is truly random then yep.

>>10162332
>/biz/ is full of brainlets

I mean are you really surprised?

>>10167867
>>10167679
I missed this comment earlier. You're saying:
>is also
2/3
>will also
1/2
Explain your reasoning here. Why would it not be "truly random"?

>>10167906
because if the result is always a gold ball on the first draw that means
It will never be the silver box, so it can be removed
even if you pick the middle box you will always get gold

>>10162332
2/3
Add boxes full of shit and diamonds if you still don't understand.

So two golds, one gold + silver, two shits, and two diamonds.

If you pick up a gold ball in one box now the chances are 3/5 that the next ball is also gold.