/biz/ - Business & Finance

Oh I think that was the wrong one, this is kaspa.

- **Thesis**: Will #Kaspa experience a blow-off top this cycle?
- **Argument against blow-off top**: Kaspa won't have a blow-off top, which is actually beneficial.
- **Alternative scenario**: If Bitcoin had a 2-year quartering instead of a 4-year halving, what would the power law chart look like?
- **Outcome**: Smaller deviations around the power law fair value, leading to smaller peaks and blow-off tops.
- **Comparison with Kaspa**: Kaspa exhibits a 2-year cycle with smaller deviations due to its monthly 5% reward reduction.
- **Cycle harmonic**: Kaspa shows a clear 4/8 month cycle harmonic with diminishing returns and relatively low volatility.
- **Absence of blow-off top**: Kaspa won't have a blow-off top because it won't deviate significantly from the power law fair value.
- **Benefit of stability**: This stability extends to the downside, making the bear market less severe for Kaspa.
- **Market perception**: During the bull market, people might get tired of Kaspa as other projects experience dramatic peaks, but they shouldn't expect Kaspa to reach all-time highs during Bitcoin's bear market.
- **Unique position of Kaspa**: Unlike other projects, Kaspa doesn't rely on Bitcoin's influence but solves its own trilemma, making it a separate asset with its own adoption curve in both bullish and bearish Bitcoin markets.