/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>20263710
I think oil and gas is kind of the right idea for an actual proper collapse and recovery. Historically, utilities and energies are the first sector to make moves in a recovery. It is why Buffett is ever so slightly making the tiniest of moves with his energy holdings. I just think how oil holders in this general went with it is silly.
Oil and nat gas in particular recover from any bust as most other commodities. First its the absolute enormous firms for the risk weary with solid balance sheets and asset holdings. Then the interest shifts on returns in less stable smaller firms that have survived. But the steps between these can be months or years in between. The real way to play oil is actually on the futures contracts. That will move before anything else.
There is a thesis that there are now secular headwinds to oil and natural gas that will prevent a return to the peaks they have experienced over the past few decades: pushes to "greener" energy, electric cars, integrated power grids, etc. But crude refining is more than just oil for cars but the loss of that sector will definitely cut into margins. Ironically, natural gas has been the biggest threat to both oil and coal as it keeps eating more and more of their market share.

>>18301288

Oil aint going anywhere. As long as we need one refined product from crude oil, we are gonna get all the others on the side. And im sure refineries aint just gonna pour these side products to the ground.