/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19277777
What a waste of pents. A V-shape economic or broad market recovery is out of the window. The economic situation has turned from a problem of liquidity during the initial unraveling of the debt bubble to a problem of credit and solvency. Based on the inability of the Main Street lending programs (both the PPP loans and the namesake Fed lending program) to cover the majority of small businesses, there is a strong possibility we will see a key economic engine of the US grind downward before a prolonged and painful recovery. The average rate of PPP loan acceptance that I've seen so far has been around 10%. The Fed is strongly pushing Congress for additional Fiscal stimulus because the programs that they provide have yet to hit Main Street (they're serving corporate America right now) by their nature. Moreover, the equity market hitting ATHs before the election will absolutely get played as a political card NOT in Trump's favor. The Congressional Budget Office expects unemployment between 9% and 10% until 2021. We saw the Occupy push-back after the GFC, and a soaring stock market while the US is in economic doldrums will look abysmal for Trump in a very similar manner.

>>19277828
>>19277896
>>19278016
Bait, but I'll bite. Short selling provides much needed liquidity to the market. One of the key problems in the downward spiral during March was a tremendous lack of liquidity across all markets. It is a main reason (not the only reason) that the Fed stepped in. Banning short selling removes that liquidity and only exacerbates the problem.

>>19277854
In the short term, it's less about the additional total debt that's being piled on and the ability to provide credit to where it's most needed to prevent a solvency crisis across Main Street America. The debt impact on slowed productivity growth will manifest itself on a QoQ and YoY basis. We'll also see the extent to which deflationary vs inflationary pressure plays out as a response.

>>19254743
>>19254832
Solvency is an issue, but many businesses do not have access to credit as well. Going forward, credit and solvency are the twin problems we'll be facing on the small business side, which will be compounded by repressed consumer sentiment and spending.
http://archive.is/u5D84