/biz/ - Business & Finance

>tfw assembled that picture from their site and see it reposted all the time
Also consider this one. It's a condensed version.

>>56701214
>>56698541
You're right that OP can't, but he can certainly try to play the odds and have a statistical longterm advantage, if he's correct. But he's not because the market (especially derivatives) are very efficient. Options have defined risk, after all. You have to accept some kind of risk to get a reward: a safe play will probably get you a few dozen bucks every week, but be prepared to fork over several hundred if you get the spread wrong. A risky play will lose consistently, until you get a good gamble

Obviously don't buy high IV options around earnings. You can write stuff like condors and butterflies to mitigate the IV/vega exposure. Trying to trade volatility is very difficult, too. Better to write a credit spread (bull or bear with puts or calls) and have a profitable range. Make sure your position has defined risk. Covered calls are also not free money, and even if you win consistently on them, you have to be aware that it caps your upside, which limits your winners but gives you way more downside.

>>56689694
>>56689674
I understand the greeks and different spreads just fine, but I just need to find a thing that gives me consistent gains. Even had a credit spread get assigned early and fuck up my trade

>>55905108
Options are a contract that gives the buyer the ability to buy or sell 100 shares at a predetermined price; the contract has an expiration date.
Option prices have a fair value as given by the Black-Scholes formula. The actual market price can be higher or lower than this. If you take the partial derivative of the BS formula, you get Greeks, which are variables that influence the contract's price.
>Delta: contract value changes based on asset price movement
>Gamma: delta changes based on asset price movement
>Theta: contract value changes based on time
>Vega: contract value changes based on implied volatility

Volatility is the hardest to measure, but typically it increases around earnings then falls off. Because of this, it's possible to buy a put or call ahead of earnings, have the price move in your favor, and still lose money.

>>55895108
>>55895099
I made that chart by ripping stuff from Optionstrat
Here's another I remade from a prop firm that they posted in a low res YT video

>>55856385
I'd really like to believe that. Even so, I see a bearish head and shoulders on the chart, but there's no reason it won't moon by the 18th, then collapse. I don't want to play shit.
I can't play the upside, I can't play the downside, I can't play a neutral market either
I can only play myself

Here you fags, copied this from a low resolution image by a prop firm and remade it