/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54106390
Actual "insider" here, as in, I work in risk assessment for one of the Big 4. This has nothing to do with the great reset agenda, and everything to do with both Trump and Biden's administrations. We are more than comfortably capitalized. If there is any weak link in the chain, it's BoA. That being said, BoA is nowhere near a liquidity crisis as of now. We have all taken sizable losses from HTM Bonds and a some from AFS. A lot of the regionals are on gravel. Nearly all of them are within regulatory minimums, but at their scale, CET1 and SCB requirements still leave them susceptible to the same scenario that we've all watched this last week. You won't see that occur at a systemic level. SVB was beyond ripe for this situation, with little to no diversification. It's pretty incredible that they weren't stepped on sooner by regs. What is driving these other regionals down now is not necessarily their losses, but fear. There will be more collapses in the coming months before this settles. One thing we won't have is another 2008. A recession is unavoidable at this point, based on the Fed's actions over the last 9 months, but we won't have any large scale collapse of big institutions. You'll likely see the stock market performing optimistically for the next month or two, tops, but that's when we'll see real blood, and there is nothing Yellen or Powell can do at this point. They either continue to hike rates and drive regionals under, increasing fear and runs on the regionals, or they pause or lower rates, allowing inflation to run up unchecked. Our bet is on the former, because the end result is them "proving" to the public that the systemic banks are indeed weatherproof. How does this translate to you? Start financially preparing now for a recession. Don't take on large debts. If you're a gambling man, you're looking at a 1 to 2 months of leeway before the markets take a dive. It's not the end of the world.

>>54106390