/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12138689
imo the best way ive found to anticipate VIX spikes is that corporate debt/index divergence thing i was doing all year (hence the total market penis index i modified from rkgs original). this is my old pic from when i discovered the relation. go look at it now

the other really good one ive found is oil. vol in oil leads to vol in indexes 100% of the time.

also, remember:
>what is VIXs favorite animal?

the problem, as always, is timing.
the only thing i can say is to wait until your move is confirmed. youre not a hedgefund so you dont get to get on at the first busstop. you gotta be thankful for capturing the part of the move that they will allow you to.

>>12138748
>2018 dogs of the dow mooned and are at all time highs, its time to wait for better entries
fair
i still think oils upcoming bounce will propel it higher desu

>Also my new theory is broad Tech is now consumer-noncyclical
how so?

>>10247682
>so you saying 15 - 16 people are predicting bull market?
no but if we continue to see this flatness stay there, and move towards us, we can expect low or lower vol when those months come around. again, not an exact science.

but i think midterms will give us a boost desu

>gonna have to wrap head around bond yield and options contracts...
bond yields go up as bonds values go down
when we see HYG dump, that means their yields are spiking. yield spikes in hi yield bonds, w no cataclysmic reaction in stocks, means that there will be increased volatility (pic related). ideally corporations and their debt (this is what hi yield bonds are) should move in tandem. them dumping implies credit risk in the market

for options, watch the vids in the OP for the absolute basics. you can buy and sell the volatility ETFs themselves, and they are leveraged, but id be wary of buying and holding TVIX and UVXY as they tend to always go down. imo the way to start getting comfy with trading vol is to start by SHORTING volatility.

wait for vol to spike (watch VIX charts and SPY, NOT UVXY/TVIX as they are not accurate), then buy yourself some SVXY (or short sell UVXY/TVIX for more leverage). after vol spikes it will usually spike back down very quickly. exceptions are in times of increasing unease, but even then, if you go short at the top of a large VIX spike, youre almost guaranteed to get some sort of move if you wait long enough (the exception being this february).

just remember, its FAR easier to react to the VIX than it is to predict it. predicting it is what im trying to do rn, but its something ive been working on for a while. try buying SVXY (as its only 0.5x VIX % move) so you can get a feel for it. dont do this if you think its still gonna get worse. short vol at the BOTTOM of the S&P

>>10032950
>>10032989
this combined with the divergence of hi yield debt from the general indexes is giving us a clear signal to sit cash for this week imo and be ready to buy any more large(er) dips. i do not think this was the last one however, given the way all these things are acting

>>10028272
i think the way the high yield debt has diverged away from the SPY since february tells all. stocks recovered, but high yield debt never did. the bond jews have sniffed out some serious risk "hidden" (lol) in this market.
bogs bless the bond jews for sending us this sign