/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29825072
i've been watching the 10 year yield very closely and the 10 year yield breaking through 1.4% has me scared as fuck. ESPECIALLY when dividend rates are BELOW the 10 year yield. when the government will pay you more to just borrow your money than corporations will pay you in their (either now or potentially very much so in the future) profitable enterprise you are in a total fucking zombie economy.

>>29813992
>Let's say worst case scenario yields don't go down but bond dividends keep dropping, >how bad would the rug get pulled from underneath this market?
>how bad would the rug get pulled
>how bad

idk. but bad. value investors like grantham right now are predicting like a crash that would rival the 1920s. im a lot less bearish than that, right now I think this continues for awhile more and amounts to a correction like september/october in the nasdaq in which we would be about a third to a half way though it right now. and i can't really speak for the entire market. mostly I follow tech because I used to work as a trader in the tech industry itself, trading digital ads on ad exchanges, now I trade securities cause it's just a bigger fucking casino I can make more money in. so I understand both tech from a being able to look at the fundamentals and valuation perspective and trading from a technical perspective so that's what I trade mostly.

now it's possible that these three things: dividend rates, treasury note yields, and bond rates unfuck themselves because right now this crossing of the streams on the chart is super fucked. if that specific trend continues shit will be really bad like rip the entire fucking face off the market bad. now at the moment these streams have just barely started to cross, they could quickly reverse trend and everything is back to the insane bull market again.

right now im CAUTIOUS. im not anticipating overnight absolute armageddon, but i'm very cautious. i've been buying more and more and getting more levered up and more levered up buying on margin and buying calls for pretty much like a fucking year right now and never risked off so I took some FAT L's over this past month so I pretty much had to risk off and take off all leverage at a minimum. if this trend reverses and it could reverse quickly, im back to raging bull mode. but if it doesn't ill just as quickly turn into the hairiest bear in the room.

am I the only person on this board paying attention to the 10 year yield? I know people don't think dividends matter and lets be real in the past fucking year they haven't at all I haven't bought shit that pays dividens, but look at this fucking chart. the ten year yield is now HIGHER than the average dividend rate in the SPY. like what the actual fuck. how is this not a signal of an incoming meltdown?