/biz/ - Business & Finance

I have warned you about the NFP sell off literally for 3 weeks, many times..
You never listen..
>>52403515
November 13
>>52566747
November 22
You should have hedged. You should have listened.

>>52706419
>thoughts on CPI?
personally I think it is going to be bad - and not only will it be bad, but it is the day before Fed meeting, so there will be no time for the market to process it and get head on straight before the meeting / decision
but we'll see
commodities have all moved higher, energy costs especially
but you never know. we had the same movement in commodities in prior months that didn't translate over (which was surprising)
the biggest thing from this NFP is these lines:
>Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.4%, revised to +0.5%)
>Average hourly earnings +5.1% y/y vs +4.6% expected (prior +4.7%)
the front jobs number being higher than expectations is also bad, but these wage numbers are particularly damaging, as it shows that wages are continuing to rise, much more than expectations
>0.6% MoM when expecting 0.3% MoM
is the worst (for the market) part of the entire report
wage inflation is very sticky, and results in inflation going higher for much longer. When everyone is getting paid more, they have more money, spend more, more demand, causes prices to rise as more dollars chasing the same number of goods
furthermore, when firms have to pay their employees more, their input costs go up to produce the same number of goods - in order to maintain the same margin of profit, they will raise prices
so you have more demand from higher wages raising prices, and suppliers raising prices to match the wage increases they're handing out
very bearish

I have warned you about the NFP sell off literally for 3 weeks, many times..
You never listen..
>>52403515
November 13
>>52566747
November 22
You should have hedged. You should have listened.