/biz/ - Business & Finance

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14289421/eia-sharply-reduces-2023-us-natural-gas-price-forecast
>the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.4/MMbtu in 2023

Did my DD brapbros. We should set our sell orders at $11.50 on BOIL, which seems to correspond to $3.5 on Henry Hub futures. This is after a significant downgrade, so it seems like a pretty sure thing.

Possible black swans I've considered:
>war in Ukraine ends
Sell immediately
>Russia chimps out harder
Congrats, BOIL will hit triple digits
>very cold weather comes late in the winter
BOIL might go to the twenties
>very cold weather does not come at all
Already the paradigm, won't change the price at all.
>US stock market crashes
???

This is the bottom for natural gas, unless the war ends suddenly or a sudden recession kills the whole energy sector (would be a big one).