/biz/ - Business & Finance

I plan on getting into long-term investing and I've been playing around with some portfolio simulations.

However, I've been finding it more difficult than expected to find useful historical data. For example, as one of my tests I built a portfolio that includes:

SPY (S&P 500 index fund)
VBR (small cap value stocks fund)
STZ (sin stock, alcohol to be specific)
two REITs

I used the tool found at https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations to get the correlations and other info on these assets, and it came up with some expected results and also some surprising ones (pic related).

- expected: low correlations between alcohol stock and other assets (low beta)
- expected: higher idiosyncratic risk on STZ
- expected: mid-to-low correlation between REITs and other assets
- surprising: the small cap value fund has smaller expected returns than the S&P fund; given that, as expected, it has a high correlation with the S&P one and a higher standard deviation, this makes itr a dominated asset. But I know that, historically, small cap value stocks have outperformed the market. So is the calculator wrong or is there an explanation I'm missing?
- surprising: the expected return on STZ is a whopping 49% annualized, which is ridiculous. Can someone explain this?