/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>27617025
no, it's not. Cycles are dictated by halvings. That doesn't mean there can't be aftershocks during the bear market phase. Just like how the 2013 bull run having a double peak doesn't actually make it two mini-cycles.

>>27495633
okay

>>27249562
>this time is different! BTC will only reach 2x its previous ATH!
>this time is different! the bull run will end only a month after breaking the 2017 ATH!
>this time is different! the bull run will end only half a year after the halving!
>this time is different! it's a 3 year cycle rather than the standard 4 years!

This time is not different.

>>27049769
I agree

>>26551083
did you see a blow-off top? Because I sure as shit didn't. Also no bull run has ever broken a previous cycle's ATH and then only lasted a month after that, nor has a bull run ever only done a mere 2x from the previous cycle's ATH.

>>26128525
not selling. You could've made the exact same argument in early 2017 when the price pumped to 3k

Top isn't until later this year

>>25944987
Bitcoin (and therefore the crypto market as a whole) operates on a fairly consistent 4 year cycle based on the halving events. Halving occurs, then there's a lull for months. Then BTC wakes up and breaks the previous cycle's ATH. From there, it's about a year until we reach the blow-off-top of the cycle, then it crashes down and goes back into bear market territory.

>>25936450
this time is not different

>>25809002
This time is not different. See you at 100k

>>25795180
in 3 years there will be no coins mooning.
It's possible the current bull run will continue into early next year, but I'm guessing the top is probably the end of 2021.

Point is, you can basically break down crypto into macro-trends of 1 year of bull market followed by 3 years of bear market. Possibly with those cycles lengthening a little each time.
Don't expect massive payoffs for the ~3 year bear markets. There are mini-rallies that form during bear markets, even if they can't break previous ATH. So it's still possible to make money so long as you don't get greedy and sell off after modest profits to buy back in lower. But it's nothing like 2017 or 2021. Those periods of time are for accumulation.

>>25795886
We have a long way to go. Corrections happen along the way up. Selling now is equivalent to selling BTC at 2,000-3,000 in early 2017.
If you think this four-year cycle peak-to-peak is going to be a mere 2x, you're retarded.

>>25786429
bear trap, first sell-off
peak will be later this year

>>25702085
local top, maybe. reminder that 30-40% retracements are normal during a golden bull run

>>25624129
missing the bull run means you think the top is in. Which it's not, nowhere close

of course, if you understood the 4 year cycle of bitcoin/crypto then you would've already bought in between the March crash and the May halving.

>>25615531
that's just a disclaimer for legal reasons, same way every youtubefag says "I'm not a financial advisor"

>>25582354
>It's not certain that BTC will even double in value let alone reach $100k+.

Wrong. It's pretty much guaranteed. Far safer bet than shitty boomer stonks

>>25555673
charts don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right.
Even if there's a short-term correction we're still going to 100k this year bare minimum.

>>25484435
I am. I can't predict the exact day BTC will peak, or the exact value it will reach, but I know it's going to either be sometime later on in 2021 or early in 2022.

Quasimodo predicted all of this. I loaded up all my bags last March/April because I knew a bull market always kicks off starting several months after each halving.

>>25476666
based. Also crypto follows a very clear macro trend based on the halvenings and subsequent four year cycles.

In general, it's about 1 year bull market followed by 3 years of bear market. Are there pullbacks, during the bull market? Sure. Are there pumps during the bear market? Yeah. But in general, the trends hold. And right now we're in the bull market part of the cycle. The peak will occur some time in either late 2021 or early 2022, most likely. It won't be a steady line up, there will be significant retraces along the way. But I'm not fucking selling until later this year.

And every cycle, the midwits come out of the woodwork saying shit like
>NOOOOO, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT BECAUSE BLAH BLAH BLAH
No, keep telling yourself that. Retarded midwits like this are exactly the reason why the macroscopic trends continue to play out like this.

>>25461280
>>25461307

obviously you don't know when the exact bottom or top is going to be, but crypto is fairly consistent on the macro scale. 1 year bull market, 3 years bear market. I'm not talking about doing autistic TAfag bullshit daytrading and trying to time peaks and troughs. I'm talking on the scale of months and years here, and I have a GENERAL, not exact, idea of when they will happen.

>>25435725

>>25427057
why would someone sell when the bull market is just in its early phase still?

>>25424419
how many fucking halvening cycles do we need to go through to get it through your thick skull?