/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>58196002
where does the euphoria even come from?
are people really buying the soft landing narrative that we'll get rate cuts -> bull run -> no recession?

from my cursory observations of prior cycles, it's usually:
>a long steady decline in the unemployment rate quickly starts to reverse
>fed cuts rates
>equities crash

in the 70's doing so also reignited inflation which led to a decade long crab via this cycle
why is this time different?
sure 401ks and government debt push us towards a high inflation + rising equities scheme, but what happens when unemployment rises?

god I hate the narrative around rate cuts, especially watching that 60minutes interview

>we want to get inflation to 2%, then we cut right?
2% AVERAGE, not 2% floor
Since 1970 they've failed and averaged ~4%
Some time under 2% would be much appreciated

>you'll drive the economy of a cliff with these hikes!
No, they'll cause all the DOGSHIT, UNPROFITABLE companies to die out. So much garbage has built up since 08

>why haven't you cut rates yet???
why do we need to cut at all?
has everyone forgotten that historically the AVERAGE fed funds rate is ~5%?
ZIRP will go down as one of the worst policy decisions ever. Mises weeps.
They should have steadily built rates back up to a few % when times were good - you know, actually do keynesian economics
but no they're fucking cucks with no balls to tamp down during good times and give themselves a buffer for actual problems in the future, and now if we get a recession they'll be fucked

>well the real reason they need to cut is because government debt is so high
realistically yes, but monetary policy != fiscal policy, and thankfully Powell calls out their bullshit here
congress is pants on head retarded and has done what they did for every other law: just hand off vague expectations to some unelected bureaucrat and let them deal with it

I don't even blame Powell too much, he's given an impossible task. I've actually gained some respect back for him after he cucked pre-covid
Wilson and FDR are rotting in hell for the direction they took the country
Journalists who ask this braindead crap will join them

TLDR S&P to <3800 before EoY

>>57468826
>zomg guys 5% rates are so high we gotta lower rates!!1!

jfc ZIRP has permanently fried everyone's brains
5% should be near the AVERAGE rate damn it
easy money policy is bullshit

>>57405371
get ready for months of this shit