/biz/ - Business & Finance

Sp 500 just hit an ATH after 2 years and 2 months roughly. How we feeling about the year then? Im fully invested and assuming it will keep pumping.

6000 Sp 500 by eoy imo.

>>55099528
Ha got lucky and shorted this an hour before this came out. Hopefully, the news picks it up and fear mongers all weekend.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/elektromobilitaet-mein-autopilot-hat-mich-fast-umgebracht-tesla-files-naehren-zweifel-an-elon-musks-versprechen/29166564.html

>>54825114
>>54825329
>>54825353
She was as cute as a button
>>54825586
Ooooooooohh

Complacency is back

>>54737090
what if I have a well-diversified port that includes cash, bonds, and
>foreign exposure
?

>>29263386
No, you do not
>>29263734
Best was Slav. Muslim girls are wife material though.

>>29235770
I'm still learning myself but one thing I can tell you is - don't just use P/E, earnings are easy to manipulate and you'll miss out on good opportunities. For commodities extractors, I like to use price/sales (since in a given subindustry, they're all selling the same thing), then separately look at debt/equity to make sure they're not overleveraged. Once I get some initial targets, I look over their quarterly reports and investor presentations to try to determine the real Net Present Value of the resources they have in the ground (small guys are better about reporting this than the big guys). Depending on the industries you're interested in, you might need to use different screens (though personally I'd always at a minimum screen out high-debt companies).

I think the key thing to keep in mind is that the financials of all these companies are readily available and picked apart by algos and people with screeners. I think to have any kind of edge, you need to understand the qualitative factors of what drives the performance of a given business. This also gives you some confidence to hold on, knowing what catalyst you are expecting to drive up future cash flow (and therefore hopefully the price).

A quick reminder that the Fed will never let the market drop ever again or the US will collapse. Just buy. It is literally that easy. -> QQQ 500 EoY.

What are banks gonna do? Not get free money from the Fed? Loan it to businesses? Are you serious?

>>27310490
Kurisu would spend the time to become a world expert in one specific commodity futures market, then write a trading bot to implement her strat while she kept researching brain science

>>25488186
Bonds don't necessarily go up in value when stocks dip. The reason they have in the past is the fed has cut interest rates in times of crisis, which makes existing, higher interest rate treasuries more valuable. However, with rates near zero this no long applies, especially if people use bonds as collateral for margin.

Basically, don't be fooled by boomer platitudes about bonds as they do not apply in a zero interest rate environment. Literally anything else including cash is better to hold in your portfolio (cash to buy the flashcrashes caused by the systematic fragility easy money creates).

>>23926866
Banks make money by holding deposits with a low interest rate while making loans at a higher one. This gives a "steady" stream of income right up until there's defaults. So, while they may appear to be a good value, they could lose huge amounts of both book value and income literally overnight if enough people or businesses can't pay their debts. It doesn't help that interest rates are at historic lows, which limits the banks profit margin to begin with.

>S&P, Dow green
>NASDUMP red

Imagine being overweight in tech right now lmao

>>21492980
>>21493996
By my calculations, AUY seems to be fairly valued. Reserves (proven+probable), excluding the Agua Rica property that they're still building up, are:

> 7.9 Moz gold
> 63.8 Moz silver
> ~8.5M GEO (gold equivalent oz) overall at Q1 gold/silver ratio

Their AISC per metal is a bit hard to pin down since they have both gold and silver, but assuming a conservative (to PM bulls) case of $1800 gold, and with their quoted AISC per GEO of ~$1000, that would be $800 profit per GEO extracted, giving a total value of their active mines of $6.8B. Furthermore, they have ~$1B debt, so ~$5.8B is the total potential value of the company at $1800 gold. This is close to their market cap of $5.6B.

To me, what this means is - if you think gold price will maintain or exceed current levels for a prolonged period of time (not one-off spikes), AUY could be a good way to participate in that increase. However, I am not a mining industry expert, so there's a lot of variables I might be missing. At least one risk I can think of is that AUY operates in some emerging market South American countries that don't guarantee stability in the way e.g. Canada or Australia might. Also, they were affected by COVID shutdowns last quarter, so short-term profits might be lower than expected.

>>20935384
Return to the mean