/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>17161877
Only thing reliable about natty is volatility. It has dropped 35% since November 15th without a single proper rally. It never stays at the deep lows for long periods of time. Always rallies, even if that rally is to a lower high on the longer time frames. Add to this that it is within 25% of 2016 low and I see opportunity for considerable upward momentum when the time comes.

Now speaking of 2016, the price dropped 35% from 2.42 to 1.57 over the course of a few weeks. That was the lowest natty has traded for since the early '90s. It would rebound +112% from that low before seeing a serious sell off (pic related). These kinds of moves happen all the time with this commodity and it's a good bet, in my opinion, that something like that can and probably will happen again.

My underlying thesis for trading natty is buying when it approaches historic lows, average down if it goes another 15% or more below initial entry, hold, do not panic sell. This has worked well for me in the past and I see no reason it won't again.