/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49445077
Nice data
Also just to point out the months leading into midterms are usually bearish

There is always a bear market leading into midterm elections of a president’s first term. Last time was 2018, before that was 2008 then 2002

Look at trump, Obama, bush, Clinton, bush

Happened every time. You could argue each time had its own happening to cause it, ie 2008 housing crisis, 9/11, etc, but it will happen this year and the narrative told after the fact will be inflation, recession or perhaps even famine.

The bull market will resume in December at the earliest and until then we will keep Bart crabbing down.

In 2018 there was a ~17% drawdown with the s&p leading into midterm elections. This was Trump’s second year in office and the seething was in full effect. What followed was the 2019 bull run into the Covid dump.

During Obama‘s first term in 2010, the markets were primarily concerned with recovery from the housing crisis, however there was still a ~20% drawdown over that year until late summer and a another 5% dip leading into the November midterms.

Bear markets in the 12 months leading up to midterm elections of a president’s first term are more common than not. Happened with Bush and Clinton too.

I think we are going to ugly crab until September-November and definitively resume the bull run in December