/biz/ - Business & Finance

BUMP

>>786499
Eh, quit crying youngfag. There's more bull markets in your future. If you mope around like a pissy cunt about missing this one, you'll just make everyone hate you (more).

>>683108
>So you just buy indices and leave them there for better or worse?
With my Vanguard portfolio, I buy mostly index fund (65%) and selective low-fee actively managed mutual funds (35%). And I hold them for better or worse. Because the better is much better than the worse, over the long term. Up markets predominate down markets by a considerable degree, both in duration and in magnitude.

>How old are you
Mid-40's.

Because facts.

>>623682
>BXM as an example may seem to undermine my overall point
Yes, it does. I don;t have a philosophical problem with any benchmark index, including any of the CBOE option writing indices. Because they take the manager/investor out of the equation. That's kinda been my whole point in the entire thread. Investors make bad decisions, regardless of the strategy they adopt.

An index, on the other hand, is a tool. Its a mechanical rule set. It has certain risk and return characteristics, and it can be added (or not added) to a portfolio according to the needs and goals of the investors. Without incurring the baseline 4-6% penalty for active management.

The problem with extending the theory to individual investor decisions is that investors make bad decisions on timing. Again, that's what the studies all say. In order to make your option strategies superior, you'd have to correctly predict the market direction (and be right many, many times). There's zero evidence that it can be done over any meaningful period.

(Not to mention, why would you adopt a strategy that works best in flat or falling markets. Look at pic related. Would you rather have a strategy that works in the blue years or the red years?)

>individuals can meet or beat the market
I never said they couldn't. I said they are statistically unlikely to do so over any meaningful period of time. By an overwhelming degree of probability. This assertion stands uncontested, just as it has every time I post it.

Pointing out that exceptions can and do exist doesn't change the facts. Every investment decision we make starts behind the proverbial veil of ignorance. Adopting a strategy that has an 80% chance of being worse than index investing is just delusional.

OP's chart is wrong.

The bull markets beat the bear markets.