/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>21250711

>>As more people spend and the economy gets up and running, QE pulls back accordingly

This is simply the narrative, not the reality. Once you start Q. E., you can't stop it. It's like taking a drug. This is why Peter Schiff always said, confidently, that the Fed could never raise rates. They tried in late 2018; yields went to a paltry 3%, the stock-market crashed immediately from 26,500 to 22,500, and they were forced to start Q. E. again. The bubbles are so enormous, and the deficit is so colossal, that yields must be kept minuscule simply in order to prop the system up at this point. But that makes treasuries increasingly undesirable to investors, hence inevitably causing a bond-market crash and hyperinflation; because, the fewer real borrowers there are, the more the Fed has to monetize the debt, in a vicious circle. A debt-trap.

>>the difference here is that Rome was part of the world...the US economy IS the world.

Rome was master of the known world. The comparison is exact. When its currency collapsed, the so-called "barbarians" were easily able to flood in and conquer it. The same thing will happen this time with respect to the Russians, the Chinese, etc. No sovereign nation is going to be stupid enough to take U. S. dollars in payment, or back their currency with treasuries, when they see that the U. S. is caught in such a debt-trap that they have to print tens of trillions per annum simply in order to prop the system up. At some point, all confidence in the dollar is completely lost. What's the U. S. going to do? Invade every other country in the world, and force it to take dollars in an act of naked robbery? No. The rest of the world won't let their commodities be robbed to fund the lifestyle of degenerates any longer. They are done with U. S. paper.

>>20722987

This is not the reason. In fact, the authorities are raising tensions with foreigners precisely in order to direct anger away from themselves. It is their greed and incompetence which is responsible for the crisis. I will repeat what I said in the last thread. "Gold and silver went down after 2011 because the Fed was able to convince everybody, lyingly, that they could eventually raise interest-rates. They tried to do so in late 2018; allowed yields to rise to a mere 3%, and the market immediately collapsed from 26,500 to 22,500. Demonstrated that they could not do it. That's when the bull market in gold began, and it has not stopped since. People have been buying gold since that point because they could see that the system _must_ collapse.

The reason why stocks are in such a bubble is artificially low interest-rates. But the bubble is so large now that tens of trillions in Q. E. are going to be needed to maintain it. You can't even have 1% yields now without crashing the market. We saw that in March."

>>20721544

>Gold and silver, along with other commodities, entered a decade long bear market because deflation was actually winning.

Gold and silver went down after 2011 because the Fed was able to convince everybody, lyingly, that they could eventually raise interest-rates. They tried to do so in late 2018; allowed yields to rise to a mere 3%, and the market immediately collapsed from 26,500 to 22,500. Demonstrated that they could not do it. That's when the bull market in gold began, and it has not stopped since. People have been buying gold since that point because they could see that the system _must_ collapse.

The reason why stocks are in such a bubble is artificially low interest-rates. But the bubble is so large now that tens of trillions in Q. E. are going to be needed to maintain it. You can't even have 1% yields now without crashing the market. We saw that in March.

>>If deflation is still winning now, and the Fed is out of "ammo" except to Volcker the montary system then the last thing you want to be in is silver and gold.

Gold thrives in times of deflation. Thrived during the Great Depression--Homestake Mining, the ancestor of Barrick Gold, was going up 90% just as the Dow was crashing 90%, and gold itself doubled in real terms. All in all, Homestake went up 500%. Gold has also thrived in the deflationary environment of Japan. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5ffEORwWkk.).)

When the dollar collapses, and it inevitably will soon, because tens of trillions will be needed to keep this system propped up, we go back to gold. There is no alternative. The past fifty years will be seen as an anomaly, and confidence in fiat money will be completely lost. We only got off gold because America deceived the world into thinking that the dollar was as good as gold until 1971, and then pulled the rug out. That historical circumstance will not repeat itself. Anybody who doesn't own gold before the reset is going to be wiped out.

>>20682231

Economy didn't collapse because of the lockdowns. Lockdowns were only the excuse for it. Ray Dalio, David Brady, Ron Paul, Mike Maloney, Harry Dent, many others, predicted that the stock market would collapse in 2020. It was obviously going to happen. Yields going to only 3% in late 2018 caused stocks to crash from 26,500 to 22,500; Fed was forced to re-start Q. E. That was when people realized that they had lied about raising rates, and that Schiff was right that they could never do so. Hence they were caught in a debt-trap. That is when gold began its present bull market (see picture). Austrians could see too that, without trillions more in Q. E., the market would crash again, which is just what did happen in Feb. 2020; lockdowns and coronavirus were merely used as the pretext for both the crash, and the trillions more needed to prop the ponzi-scheme back up.

Lockdowns are also convenient because, when the economy inevitably collapses now, they will lyingly blame it all on the coronavirus, as Powell did on Sixty Minutes. If there were no pretext for the collapse, the public would be furious with the ruling class; probably would be a revolution. They are already trying to direct people's anger outward, towards foreigners; perhaps trying to start a war with China or Iran as a distraction. Meanwhile they are imposing more and more authoritarian measures as they prepare for what is coming, using the coronavirus as their excuse.

>>20555426

>How should a collapse happen when the velocity of money is lower than ever?

All assets but commodities in a historic bubble. If yields go up even a little, stocks crash immediately, as we saw in late 2018; trillions in money-printing needed to suppress them. 7 trillion printed so far, and tens of trillions to come when we get YCC, which is inevitable; stocks need it. Yields must also stay fractional simply for the U. S. to pay its enormous deficit. U. S. caught in a debt-trap of either defaulting, and all social programmes--welfare, pensions, public schools, etc.,--disappearing in the blink of an eye, or hyperinflating the currency to cope and then defaulting.

>First thing they would do is raise those interest rates again

This is literally impossible. They _cannot_ raise rates. First, the budget is now unserviceable if yields go up, because the deficit is so enormous. Secondly, they let yields go to 3% in 2018, and stocks immediately crashed from 26,500 to 22,500, upon which they were forced to start Q. E. again. Gold bull market also began at that time, when people realized that the Fed lied about normalizing rates. The debt is so much worse than in 2018, and the bubble in assets so much greater, that even 1% yields would now crash the market. Short-term rates will stay zero forever, and yield-curve control, along with deeply negative real yields, is coming for bonds before the end of this year. Inevitably, of course, this means that gold and silver will soar, as they did in the 70s, when gold went 25x. Explained all this in this thread from a month ago: https://i.warosu.org/biz/thread/19669109

>My guess is 2023.

Unlikely if we have a severe banking crisis. The trillions required to bail them out would completely trash the dollar, and lead to a swift crash in the bond market.

>>20555493

Alisdair is a sensible and intelligent man who does not make predictions lightly.

>>19961049

>Wow, gold increased a whole 2.3% over one month

Do you mean gold? Or gold miners? Because they accomplish very different things.

1) If you bought gold in late 2018, it appreciated from $1200 to $1650 from that time until March. It then dropped only 10% in the March sell-off, which means that you could have sold it, bought the stock market at the bottom, and made a fortune. It was the only thing which remained stable during the crash.

2) If you bought gold miners at the bottom in March, you are up by 100, 200, often even 300%. Newmont Mining is an enormous large-cap, and even that is up 100% off the lows. Far better than buying useless cruises and airlines, which are now plummeting.

>Gold price CRASHED in 2018.

You are completely ignorant. 2018 is when gold began its present rise, when people realized that the Fed had lied to the world, and could not possibly let yields rise. Letting them rise to 3% crashed the market from 26,500 to 22,500, before they were forced to re-start Q. E. again. Since then, gold has gone up from $1200 to $1770. Go and look at any chart of gold to verify what I say.

>>19961084

Fortuna Silver Mines up 150% off the March lows. No idea what miners you are buying.

>>19917111

Gold goes up when real yields go down. That's the correlation. That is why gold went 25x before, and that is why gold started rising again after late 2018, when people realized that the Fed could not allow yields to go up without crashing the market. The only difference between the 70s or 80s and now is one of degree. The financial situation is now a hundred times worse, and gold is going to go up, not merely 25x, but to infinity.

>>19915811

> the fact is that at the end of the day everyone wants cash not gold

Then why has gold gone from $1200 to $1780 ever since people realized, in late 2018, that the Fed lied about raising long-term interest-rates, and that it cannot allow them to go up without crashing the stock-market? Everybody knows now that America is caught in a debt trap. The dollar is done. It can only go downhill from here. There is a reason why China, Russia, Turkey, etc., have been hoarding gold since 2008. They know what is coming.

>>19671394

They invented the coronavirus narrative as an excuse for the collapse of the economy in general. Even though this collapse was inevitable, since they can't even let yields go up to 3% without crashing the stock market (see late 2018: it plummeted, and they had to restart Q. E. again). They are using the same lying pretext now to explain away this inevitable collapse in the stock market, which I knew was coming. I explained about this in my posts on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, e. g. >>19596510 >>19601488 >>19638370 >>19638634 >>19596510

>>19671394

They invented the coronavirus narrative as an excuse for the collapse of the economy in general. Even though this collapse was inevitable, since they can't even let yields go up to 3% without crashing the stock market (see late 2018: it plummeted, and they had to restart Q. E. again). They are using the same lying pretext now to explain away this inevitable collapse in the stock market, which I knew was coming. I explained about this in my posts on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, e. g. >>19596510 19601488 >>261990343 >>19638370 >>19638634 >>19596510

>>19620474

The Fed is in an inescapable dilemma. One of two outcomes is going to happen imminently.

1) The Fed allows nominal yields to keep rising. This would crash equities and real estate by 90%--it would be worse than the Great Depression. When nominal yields got to only 3% in 2018, the stock market plummeted from 26,500 to 22,500. This was averted only by restarting Q. E. Nowadays, even 1% yields crash the market. We nearly got to 1% yields on Friday--0.90%. Yields could spike any day now. This is why Warren Buffet is staying out of the stock market and hoarding silver.

2) The Fed puts a formal cap on yields, also known as YCC. This would be an admission that 5 trillion in Q. E. hasn't been enough to suppress yields, and that at least 20 trillion more is coming. In other words, hyperinflation, a crash in the bond market, and monetizing the debt. Stocks would soar in nominal terms, but crash against the price of gold, because hyperinflation would make the gains worthless, as they were in the Zimbabwe or Venezuelan stock-markets.

In other words, the stock market must crash soon. The only question is whether it will happen in nominal terms or real terms.

I think we all know that the Fed will choose to crash it in real terms, because that is the only politically expedient option. The average Robinhood trader will be marvelling at his 500% gains, and the "best" stock market in human history, even though the U. S. dollar is on its way to being carried about in wheelbarrows.

Whichever choice the Fed is going to make, the only way to profit from this crisis and protect yourself is to buy gold, gold miners, silver, and silver miners.

>>19620474

The Fed is in an inescapable dilemma. One of two outcomes is going to happen imminently.

1) The Fed allows nominal yields to keep rising. This would crash house prices and real estate by 90%--it would be worse than the Great Depression. When nominal yields got to only 3% in 2018, the stock market plummeted from 26,500 to 22,500. This was averted only by restarting Q. E. Nowadays, even 1% yields crash the market. We nearly got to 1% yields on Friday--0.90%. Yields could spike any day now. This is why Warren Buffet is staying out of the stock market and hoarding silver.

2) The Fed puts a formal cap on yields, also known as YCC. This would be an admission that 5 trillion in Q. E. hasn't been enough to suppress rates, and that at least 20 trillion more is coming. In other words, hyperinflation, a crash in the bond market, and monetizing the debt. Stocks will soar in nominal terms, but crash against the price of gold, because hyperinflation will make the gains worthless, as they were in the Zimbabwe or Venezuelan stock-markets.

In other words, the stock market must crash soon. The only question is whether it will happen in nominal terms or real terms.

I think we all know that the Fed will choose to crash it in real terms, because that is the only politically expedient option. The average Robinhood trader will be marvelling at his 500% gains, and the "best" stock market in human history, even though the U. S. dollar is on its way to being carried about in wheelbarrows.

Whichever choice the Fed is going to make, the only way to profit from this crisis is to buy gold, gold miners, silver, and silver miners.

>>19610908

Just going to repeat here what I said in the Warren Buffet thread.

P. E. ratios across the whole market are equivalent to technology during the dotcom bubble, and the stampede of Robinhood retail traders into Hertz has driven the price up 800%, even though the company is bankrupt and completely worthless. This is not normal or sustainable behaviour.

Yields are spiking. On Friday they went from 0.70 to 0.90. As we saw in late 2018, when yields go to only 2 or 3%, stocks crash, and precious metals soar. Indeed, the economy is so weak that even 1% yields appear to crash stocks now, as we saw in March. Trillions in money-printing have not been enough to suppress yields. The market is going to crash soon unless the Fed imposes a cap on them. This means hyperinflation.

In sum, the Fed has two options: let yields continue to rise, and crash the market by 90% in nominal terms; or cap yields to prop up the market, and begin hyperinflation, crashing the market in real terms against gold and other hard assets. There is no way of escaping this dilemma.

Warren Buffet is sitting out of the market, and probably waiting for a cap on yields to be announced before he makes his next move. In the mean-time, it is widely speculated that he is hoarding silver. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcM6aqWUm6k))

>>19599714

P. E. ratios across the whole market are equivalent to technology during the dotcom bubble, and the stampede of Robinhood retail traders into Hertz has driven the price up 800%, even though the company is completely bankrupt and worthless. This is not normal or sustainable behaviour.

Yields are spiking. On Friday they went from 0.70 to 0.90. As we saw in late 2018, when yields go to only 2 or 3%, stocks crash. Indeed, the economy is so weak that even 1% yields appear to crash stocks now, as we saw in March. Trillions in money-printing have not been enough to suppress yields. The market is going to crash soon unless the Fed imposes a cap on them. This means hyperinflation. Buffet is probably waiting for a cap on yields to be announced before he makes his next move. It is widely speculated that he is hoarding silver.

>>19595724

Why gold is about to soar imminently, in eight easy steps:

1) The American economy is so leveraged and feeble that, when yields go to only 2 or 3%, stocks crash.

2) We saw this in November, 2018. Yields rose to 3%, and stocks crashed from 26,500 to 22,500. The Fed found that it simply could not let rates go up, and began doing Q. E. again.

3) This period is also when gold began its rise from $1200 to $1500--well before the coronavirus hoax (the exculpatory cover for the coming economic collapse) had started.

4) This rise in the price of gold was because the price of gold goes up when real yields go down. An environment with low real yields is the reason why gold went up 20 times during the 70s and 80s. At this time, inflation was so bad that bonds became known as "certificates of confiscation."

5) Because of the present stampede into the stock-market, the ten-year yield is presently soaring. On Friday, it went from 0.70 to 0.90 in a single day.

6) PMs dropped temporarily because of this stampede into the stock market. But if yields go up any further, stocks will crash.

7) To prevent a stock-market crash, the Fed will soon announce a formal cap on yields. This will signify that hyperinflation is coming. They would need to print tens of trillions to impose a formal cap.

8) This cap will cause a bond-market crash, and gold, silver, gold miners and silver miners, to soar to unprecedented levels. This is because the bond-market is even bigger than the stock-market, and precious metals will become the only safe haven to escape inflation.

In sum, the Fed has two options: let yields continue to rise, and crash the market by 90%; or cap yields to prop up the market, and begin hyperinflation. There is no way of escaping this dilemma.

>>19577253

I went over this in the /pmg/ thread (>>19573045) but it bears repeating here. The present stampede into the stock market is soon going to be its own demise. On Friday, yields rose from 0.70 to 0.90. This is a disaster for the Fed. It means that even five trillion in money-printing can't suppress yields. If yields go up any more, there will be an almighty crash in stocks. This crash will be far worse than the one which we had in March, since, this time, all the weak-handed Robinhood retail speculators have flooded in and are buying up everything in sight--even bankrupt stock like Hertz. Now as we saw in late 2018, the American economy is so weak and leveraged that, when yields go to even 2 or 3%, stocks crash (picture related). Q. E. restarting again in response to this is when the price of gold began its present rise from $1200 to $1500.

The reason why rising yields cause stocks to crash is that yields compete with the stock-market: they offer risk-free reward. The only way to avert such a crash is for the Fed to impose a formal cap on yields. A cap on yields would mean that it would have to print another twenty trillion or more. This would result in the same kind of hyperinflationary environment which we saw in the 70s and 80s. Stocks would then continue to rise in nominal terms, as they did in Venezuela or Zimbabwe; but in real times they would crash. Mean-while, expect a crash in the bond market, resulting from a crash in real yields, to cause gold, silver, and miners to soar to unprecedented heights; because precious metals would be the only safe haven.

In sum, the Fed has two options: let yields continue to rise, and crash the market by 90%; or cap yields to prop up the market, and begin hyperinflation. There is no way of escaping this dilemma.

Why gold is about to soar imminently, in eight easy steps:

1) The American economy is so leveraged and feeble that, when yields go to only 2 or 3%, stocks crash.

2) We saw this in November, 2018. Yields rose to 3%, and stocks crashed from 26,500 to 22,500. The Fed found that it simply could not let rates go up, and began doing Q. E. again.

3) This period is also when gold began its rise from $1200 to $1500--well before the coronavirus hoax (the exculpatory cover for the coming economic collapse) had started.

4) This rise in the price of gold was because the price of gold goes up when real yields go down. An environment with low real yields is the reason why gold went up 20 times during the 70s and 80s. At this time, inflation was so bad that bonds became known as "certificates of confiscation."

5) Because of the present stampede into the stock-market, the ten-year yield is presently soaring. On Friday, it went from 0.70 to 0.90 in a single day.

6) PMs dropped temporarily because of this stampede into the stock market. But if yields go up any further, stocks will crash.

7) To prevent a stock-market crash, the Fed will soon announce a formal cap on yields. This will signify that hyperinflation is coming. They would need to print tens of trillions to impose a formal cap.

8) This cap will cause a bond-market crash, and gold, silver, gold miners and silver miners, to soar to unprecedented levels. This is because the bond-market is even bigger than the stock-market, and precious metals will become the only safe haven to escape inflation.