/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57328688
market will crash on fed rates as always

>>56835743
low iqfags think that low rates = "free money!" = people buying their bags

>>56832017
But if we look at this graph, since the 2000 it seems like clockwork, fast rise on interest rates, maintained for a while = some shit breaks = recesion and stock market dumps. So this is the fastest rise on interest rates, the economy has still not felt the impact of the interest rates, and we have even more debt now, so how can we not expect a recession, and how wouldn't it result on a dump on market? looks like a reasonable bet to make. Buffet is loading on cash and bonds.

>>56550329
I would have already profited. As long as rates are lowered after I take a position on the index fund I would already be made a cool amount of money. The problem is, bonds long term seem a bit low to me and curve is still inverted. Investors should be paid more for bonds at 10 years than 6 months. But this fund is so fucking cratered than I just want to buy now.

Also recessions often come when they start lowering rates because shit starts hitting the fan. Most businesses are still paying debt at very low rates, the effects of the rate increases are still not fully felt on the economy. Inflation should keep going down. There may be an extra increase on rates but we should be near the limit. I just want exposure for when rates start going down.

Quick question: How the FUCK does sticky inflation go away when every fucking FED rate increase was already "priced in" and actually pumps the market?

>>55673015
Who the fuck would have that much money? and who would invest all that now when 100% of times after the post-internet era, everytime the FED cut rates the market crashed?

Is he gambling on the space between now and that happening still going up? who takes that much risk with that much money?


>>55674512
who the fuck trades in 2023? 90% of traders lose.

Im all about making big moves every x years. Like right now im gambling it all by being on a defensive position lossing on these gains but hoping the FED cutting rates means I have tons of cash ready for cheap SP500 and maybe even cheap TSLA/NVDA or even BTC.

>>55674913
>>55674868
Im european too and my entire networth is on monetary funds to take advantage of the climbing interest rates. I don't expect much risk from this because if these funds collapse then we are on world war 3 all things considered.

My goal is to send my money to the sp500 when the supposed crash comes and so far all these doom and gloomers have costed me money by being on this defensive position.

My last hope is that history repeats itself and once FED starts lowering rates it would mean shit is about to hit the fan. Here is when I start buying SP500 and possibly some riskier shit like individual stocks or even bitcoin.

I have 380k to my name and I need to 2x this as I have no income now and im half aspie/retarde and cannot hold a job. Asking what you think since everyone else are burgertards looking for the next x1000 scam.

>>55483219
Im just looking at past performance just like how you look at past performance to invest hoping to get that anualized 10%.
Look at this shit: fed rates dropping = recesion = Sp500 price dropping.
"This time is different" is your bet.

>>54841198
Did you adjust for a decade of cheap monies?

Free money due negative interest rates. It lived in an era of QE QE and more QE. Now Bitcoin is fucked outside of short term scam rallies. It's going to crash along with the markets.

Gold and silver went up during recessions but they suck too since you could have been the market cheap for these years and benefit later.

What kind of retard buys shitcoins before a recession?

buy the recession crash when fed is forced to drop rates

Why the fuck is the SP500 going up?

just hodl bruhhh

>>54305422
Do you seriously believe when the FED pivots and there's a recession people are going to get out of the SP500 to buy shitcoins which they can crash at any moment by banning exchanges causing a liquidity crunch that will plummet the price even more? lmao

recession, sp500 crash, nasdaq crash, crypto crash

I have 500k € in cash after getting out of the market at a decent move. My question right now is, doesn't this chart tell you the stock market should crater the fuck out in the following 6(?) months? For how longer can the FED keep raising rates before it begins? this is the highest rate ever, because it's not only the number, but the speed, and the number in any case is near that sort of psychological limit of 6%, to get any higher you have to go back to the pre-internet era (90's) which I don't see viable in the current environment. So, the pivot should be very close, which historically means stock market crashing. It will go to covid levels? we'll see, in any case, cheaper prices coming.

The question: Where the fuck do you allocate the 500k € while this doesn't happen? Options:

1) I keep eating inflation but in return I have big amount of dry powder ready to start getting in the market at increasinly cheaper prices

2) Buy gold. The figure 2. Gold beat the stock market from july 2008 to september 2013. But after september 2013, it has been lossing vs the stock market. Is this really worth it? It crashed fast, then started lossing vs sp500. What if you just keep buying the stock market during this time DCAing in?
Silver was

3) BTC: This thing is yet to show it can decouple from the stock market. When FED pivots and the market crashed as it should, who is to say BTC will not crash too? is yet to be seen if people will be buying during recession. Of course, it's fucking fantastic the deusion of shitcoiners not seeing that if BTC successfully acted as a financial black hole and went to $100k, $200k or whatever the fuck, they would just ban exchanges and the price will crash instantly due liquidity crunch and lack of conversion into anything relevant (real state, stocks, or anything that improves your life quality in general, plus ban in cash).

4) Real state: bubbled and will crash during recesion

5) Bonds: not sure how this works

WWYD?