/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50168352
Companies like Disney are going to blindside everyone because people think they are at the bottom and realistically still have at least 20% more to fall and probably closer to 50% more or higher. We are still in a situation where people have "recession worries." That means in the mind of the general public we aren't even in a recession yet. The Biden administration seems to have no solutions or else they'd be implementing them this very moment to maybe try to prevent an economic downturn.

Instead, they're just trying to gaslight, distract, and pilpul everyone. One has to assume that is in fact their strategy, the best they can come up with, and they'll only ramp it up as it becomes more difficult to obfuscate reality. So, when it is no longer "recession worries" and everyone just comes to terms with the fact we're actually in a recession, you still have several months or longer of everything dropping. During that time, all sorts of upheavals and bankruptcies will occur which will cause more chaos.

With a competent administration, you would see all sorts of interventions and policies designed to really fight back the problem, but with this one? Well, we know what they'll do, so it's entirely possible we're go from recession worries to recession to full blown depression. That will mean you have to wait AT least as long as it takes for the next administration to come in. By that point, the market landscape will be totally alien with how destroyed and mutilated it is. If things go well, we have about 2 years to even come close to levels from 6-12 months ago. If things don't go well, we're talking 4-5 years bare minimum.

Disney may very well see less than $50/share and that is going to be destroy people.

>>50055740
Inflation is transitory, we don't have to go into a recession, and there is a path back to 2% inflation with a strong labor market...but...but...I mean there are no guarantees.

Until the Biden administration even acknowledges there is a problem you should be shorting. Until the administration comes out and openly acknowledges the economic issues going on and stops fucking around with Russia and Ukraine, you may as well assume that this is all according to plan which means you should not only expect things to continue dropping, but you should assume they are working behind closed doors to make them all drop further. When the administration acknowledges there is a problem and actively begins trying to fix things, then and only then, can you maybe begin to speculate with long positions. And even then, your bet is on the capacity of this administration to manage a crisis that is shaping up to be as bad or worse than the Global Financial Crisis. There are layers upon layers of reasons that you should be short right now. There will come a time to be long, but it isn't even remotely the time yet.