/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>28841208
-50% weekly candle is next to impossible. I track bitcoin's weekly standard deviation of returns for every week going back to 2014. ETA soon on older coverage, but I don't think it'll change much.
The weekly standard deviation of returns is 8%, the mean is 1.78%. Which means that a 4 standard deviation week would see the price going to -30.22%. In stats we call the probability of 4 SD zero, but in financial markets return distributions are actually fat tailed so it happens more often than never.
Regardless, to have a -50% week you're looking at 6.5 standard deviations. Which is ridiculous even in financial markets.