/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55684751
Buy 10k of physical gold/silver in whatever ratio pleases you. Start buying TLT with the rest when it's in the low 90's and buy some more if/when it dips under 90. Finishing buy if you have cash left once it can hold over the 200 day moving average or fed starts buying again. You'll be investing like a boomer in no time, and don't worry, if treasury bonds blow out beyond that then everything is fucked so you'll maybe appreciate the precious metals.

>US 30Y up 13 pips
I think it's finally beginning. Buckle up.

>>54311323
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Haky3aYDPPA
Go to 6:00 if you don't want to watch the whole thing, but Jeff knows the bonds market so it's all worth a listen.

Bond Niggas Edition

>Brokers
https://pastebin.com/F1yujtVq
https://brokerchooser.com/

>Risk management:
https://pastebin.com/sqJUcbjp

>Live Streams:
http://www.livenewson.com/american/bloomberg-television-business.html
https://watchnewslive.tv/watch-cnbc-live-stream-free-24-7/

>Educational sites:
https://www.investopedia.com/
https://exhentai.org/tag/character:Mythra
https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
https://www.thebalance.com/

>Options (do not trade these just because you read all these links)
https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
https://optionstrat.com/
https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

>Free charts:
https://www.tradingview.com
https://www.finscreener.com/
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

>Screeners:
https://finviz.com/
https://www.tradingview.com/screener
https://etfdb.com/

>Pre-Market Data and Live data:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://finance.yahoo.com/

>Bio-pharma Catalyst Calendar:
https://biopharmcatalyst.com

>Boomer Investing 101:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

>Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) calculator:
https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/

>Calendars
https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
https://www.investing.com/dividends-calendar/
https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar/
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html <-- 3 days

>Misc:
https://market24hclock.com/
https://tradingeconomics.com
https://finsight.com/bond-screener/corporate-bonds

>Previous>>54215488

>>54146135
price action on long duration moves a lot more than people think. that's why I recommend TLT instead of buying the short end of the curve.

>>54023021
nah it could triple. retard pumps are the new norm and it's coming back with the boomer classic of bonds. TLT and bonds aren't the same thing stop equating them as the same. but as for bond prices go fuck around with a bond calculator your self to see how different bond price action is, particularly when being translated into a basket owned by an ETF that probably also has hedge trades running to blur it even more. buy TLT. TMF if you want to gamble and probably lose your money, but you could hit it big.

>>53820415
liquidity, and to ease financial conditions. how? because bond returns, like any other financial asset work on supply and demand. a central bank buying its own bonds means: yields go down, as there is a consistent buyer of bonds at any yield(selling of bonds makes rates go up as the yield isnt seen as attractive enough and investors demand more return).

they do this to lower rates and stimulate the economy(its cheaper to borrow money). this causes less bonds to be available in the market. investors are then pushed down the risk curve to get any sort of long term return as bonds are less attractive(financial assets are competing with one another, why invest in Coca Cola for a 3% dividend when a 2 year US Treasury gives 4.5% Risk Free? ). lower bond yields correlate heavily with higher P/E ratios, puts demand pressure on all other financial assets like stocks and real estate(asset price inflation is the point of Quantitative easing),

the government isnt trying to make money from bonds. it wants a liquid bond market(easily tradeable) but more importantly a healthy economy. so issuing a bond and buying it back does have a real impact

>>53663414
TLT

Bond yields did not go up despite the fed hiking. This means something.

>>53248866
If that happens, I lose and will have to try again

>>53176634
Yeah I am thinking we are back 2 year niggas

>>52941152
for me it's TMF

>>52904820
>I want to invest like a boomer
buy TLT and sell after a year to avoid short term capital gains

>>52893210
Believe the Fed? You mean when they said inflation was transitory? When they forecasted they would raise rates twice by 25 bps in 2022? The Fed is almost always wrong. But now you believe them. The bond market is signalling the Fed will be cutting in 2023.

crypto looking stinky

>>52739425
i will explain. financial assets compete with eachother. investors are trying to build a portfolio that suits their needs(return needed vs risk tolerance). bonds(especially govt bonds) are seen as safer than stocks. a stock can go up or down and you can lose all your money. a bond is a loan where the person signed a contract saying they would pay you back, in the case of the govt, they can literally print money to do pay you back, so its seen as ultrasafe. so this leads to something important: The "risk free rate", how much return(or yield) can you get from an investment if it had no risk? Investors try to find a stand-in for this, and often time use the a few govt bonds. one in particular: 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

if you can loan money to the govt(buy a bond) and get a garunteed 5% back plus your initial principle, why would you take on the extra risk from stocks for the potential of maybe 5%? It means stocks would have to yield MORE than 5% for them to be worth it. investors are doing these calculations. bonds are competing with stocks for capital. asset prices largely go up because of supply and demand. if theres more demand for bonds because yields are very high, this puts downward pressure on stocks, as they are seen as overpriced and not worth the risk. a portfolio manager had to invest in stocks because bonds were yeilding 1 or 2%, they were starved for yield and thus had to go riskier, so they bought stocks. when people buy bonds en masse, their yields go down, and when people are selling or not buying bonds, their yields go up(to attract buyers)

this culminates into a financial idea called the equity risk premium, the reward investors get for investing in stocks over bonds

>>52725376
the bond market has priced in cuts in 2023, the 10 year is smarter than The Fed

>>52356806
they let bonds just run off. its not like theyre selling overpriced stocks

>>52335081
i get that you want to be full risk on when young, but if i had a 1 million dollar portfolio i would not be in 100% SOXL or some shitcoin. thats a great way to get fucking heemed.

a conservative 10% sp500 gain could net you 100,000$ for gods sake man

Good. Time to get a real job. You were never going to make it anyway.

TLT heading green this is our time bond bros

Bond niggas......

You did buy bonds today, didn't you anon?

>>51579387
The fed has more control over short term rates. It doesn't set mortgage prices, or 10 or 30 year rates. The reason why the yields are lower is because investors expect 30 year inflation to be low. You don't need 10% yield on a 30 year, if the fed can do its just and bring inflation down to 2% in the next 2 years. But for a 2 year bond, you do expect a higher premium because you're currently getting a negative real return. It's simple math, a bond is a loan. Why would you loan money out for 1% yield when inflations at 9%? Investors are making these decisions and prices are readjusting. This is bad for us because risk assets are priced against the "risk free rate". Ie how much would you get from a 10 year with 0 risk? Why hold KO with a divine of 2, when the 10yr gives 4?