/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52462813
Here is my layman prediction. Feel free to rip it apart.

Markets are currently shaky but inflation numbers are coming in and giving people hope. However, the inflationary effects of the deep industrial corporations (I'm talking the corps who run the power grid, marine engine manufacturers, oil & gas, shipping, OEMs, suppliers of OEMs and raw material providers) are feeling the effects of the inflation from the war/Covid and have been mostly holding off raising prices, cutting into their margins for a while now but are starting to feel the pain. Earnings call Q4 2022 and over next year will continue to spook investors which will hold the market down while smart money buys valuable assets for cheap and people who believe in crypto DCA into bitcoin and other alternatives with some backing. Some companies will go bankrupt and gobbeled up by bigger players for cheap so competition decreases. As the next year progresses and Russia is forced back towards their border, things keep stalling until something pops and Russia collapses on itself. New goverment will be installed in Russia (probably Navalny) and it will be "liberated" opening up new flows of raw materials back to a starved world economy. This will probably be late 2023 or even 2024 though. In this meantime leading up to this, companies will probably have tightened the belt and gotten rid of some loose baggage, causing a flood of cheap labor into the market which drives down wages of low skilled jobs but keeps skilled workforce which will not see significant raises. This increase in workforce puts pressure on the goverments for support so they start printing again and the cycle begins again with a bull run build up in ~2025-2027 until the next crisis comes. The dark horse here is the development of GPT-4 and possible introduction of AGI.