/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19201496
Our ride is coming.
Last month it only took two hours to get it done. This month looks like it will fuck even harder.

Fuck the news and its bullshit recovery claims.
Fuck Cramer and Youtube causing FOMO/despair
Fuck made up oil wars to kill US shale
Fuck Texans putting oil in swimming pools
Fuck China lying about everything
Fuck Trump and his shitty interventionist crony-capitalist twitter account.

You can't bullshit oil. Oil has the longest, thickest, veiniest cock of any commodity on earth. Oil has been making kings and paupers since before we were born. Oil is king. Oil is god, and god's wrath shall fall upon the wicked and the liars as he slams his awesome cock so deep into the anus of the sinful that they cry out in repentance in his mighty shower of crude oil cum.

Kill. Them. All.

>STNG right now
lol.
Soon now.
Very soon.
Chinks are liars.
Poos are still on lockdown.
The areas of USA that matter are still locked down.
Texans are putting WTI into their dog's water bowls.
OPEC is facing prisoner's dilemma, turns out everybody cheated.
God emperor Trump tweets to try to stop oil from shitting the bed again before he can dog whistle his bros.
Tankers being pulled from routes to play contango.
Massive earnings proves to hedgies that tankers have some go in them.
Retail has capitulated.
Institutional money is entering.

>>19063498
Blood for the blood god. Skulls for the skull throne. The twin tailed comet arrives in six days time.

>>19063392
It won't unless spot rates hit like 300k, which won't happen unless Brent goes negative, which it likely won't.

>>19062478
>How can they release contradictory findings from the API
It didn't. They aren't mutually exclusive.
The EIA report omits a few things (1) the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (expressly excluded from report), (2) stranded imports, and (3) crazy fucking Texans doing crazy Texas shit. Re domestically sourced oil, please read:
https://www.law.com/texaslawyer/2020/04/23/government-offers-storage-at-the-strategic-petroleum-reserves-for-us-produced-crude-oil/?slreturn=20200413132150

>>19038630
>What am I missing?
Imagine you are an institutional investor.
Imagine you see a good trade on a small cap stock.
Imagine your bros own much of the industry already.
Imagine you notice bunch of FUCKING RETAIL PLEBS sitting on a sizeable amount of shares bought in April because Cramer opened his stupid goddamned mouth again.
Imagine you need these faggots to sell so you can buy.
Imagine selling off like a mother fucker to drive the price down so you can write calls to dummies while acquiring more.
Imagine getting news outlets to shit on this sector.
Imagine doing all this right when these companies are announcing record earnings in order to kill any confidence confused normalfags might have.
Imagine laughing like a madman as you make stupid amounts of money from retailfags capitulating or getting liquidated.
Imagine being about to whip out the champagne because you fucked over the little guy once again...

BUT WAIT
>There is a small sector of retail autists that aren't selling!?!?!?
>You sent this stock diving nose first into satan's flaming asshole, how are they not selling?
This is you right now.

I told you it might not happen on DHT earnings.
I told you the sure thing already happened last month.
I told you that buying into tankers now is betting on the length of the downtrend.
I told you that oil is a global market not a national one
I told you that all tanker stocks are riding a retail retard FOMO from last month started by Cramer/Youtube/NAT

Trump is propping up spot prices so everybody doesn't lose their shit before futures roll over. Surprise surprise... oh wait, we do this last month?
UBS and Goldman revised their oil price predictions based on supply cuts, predicting that Brent is going up to $43/barrel by EoY and $55/barrel by this time next year. Surprise surprise... oh wait, didn't we do that last month too?

Oil tankers are an oil demand play. A GLOBAL MARKET has generally relied upon an inelastic demand for oil. That demand has been cut significantly. It doesn't fucking matter if a few nations "reopen" as a policy if that demand doesn't return.

Bigwig numbers assume a lot of silly shit:
>When corona policies are over in the first world everything goes back to normal including road and air traffic (it wont)
>China's recovery numbers are reliable and their demand recovery will be V shaped (they're liars and it won't)
>India will be a thirsty lil bitch again soon (it also won't)

>>18907513
This nigger has good info.

>>18906555
This nigger is a fucking idiot and doesn't understand oil at all. Dear dipshit: not all oil is the same, not all countries are the same, and not all countries have large strategic reserves. The right oil still needs to make it to the right places, the core business of tankers is still sound, much moreso if they can get completely debt free in a few quarters.

>>18891846
>In the firstquarter of 2020the Company’s VLCCs operating in the spot market achieved $66,400per dayand the Company’s VLCCs on time-charter earned$54,000 per day achieving combined time charter equivalent earnings for the Company’s VLCCs of $64,400 per day. The resultfor the Company’s VLCCs operating in the spot marketadjusted for the IFRS 15 impact was $65,500 per dayfor the firstquarter of 2020.

>Thusfar in the secondquarter of 2020, 66%of the available VLCC spot days have been booked at an averagerate of $110,400perdayon a discharge to discharge basis(seetable Ifor details).

Because shore storage wasn't full during Q1. They literally just said that their crazy earnings aren't going to be in this report, but that they're going to be rolling in it in Q2.

I, and many other anons, have been saying it for a while. Shit got real for oil in Q1. That means shit gets real for tankers in Q2. Hope you niggers bought the bottom. I've tried to gently educate people over the past two months. You now have maybe a few days left.

>>18882968
>>18882982
It won't be earnings.
May 19, 2020.
Mark the date.
That is all I will say

>>18732882
>Why are my tankers taking such a huge dump all of a sudden
Holy fuck, these oil newfags are making my head hurt. DEAR ALL TANKER NEWFAGS:

The tankers are in the contango game, meaning they are making money from speculation rather than their typical operations. Contracts have a specified term. The tankers make money on rents at the start of the term and on profit sharing at the end of the term. Inbetween these points, there will be absolutely nothing to report, so the price will sway, sometimes wildly, based on the movement of the market as a whole or on the movement of oil futures. These are your entry points. You will then see the price correct very quickly once futures roll over and when current rental contracts expire, which result in new contracts. These are your sell points.

If you can't figure out these dates, don't fucking buy the tankers, you are going to get burned, you'll be up 50% one day and -$150 once supercontango is over and your greedy ass is guaranteed to hold too long. Actually do buy tankers and I will gladly take your money for my new house.

>>18502855
I will never try to short general market trends ever again. It doesn't matter what happens in the real world, the Fed can just randomly decide to fuck your face and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.

>>18109329
Imho the big issue is credit. Everything we do nowadays revolves around debt, and the assumption that borrowers at the lowest levels (i.e., pleb wageslaves) will generally continue to (1) keep buying in on long-term financial instruments - such as mortgages, (2) keep consuming to keep money flowing, and (3) keep paying their debts.

The big question is whether this particular event, coronavirus, will prevent people from servicing their debt. If it's just a two-week or month-long hiccup, it's whatever, the federal government can essentially borrow/create additional money on wageslaves' behalf and either make them pay it back later or dilute the dollar (which is essentially just making them pay for the economic downturn in a way they don't understand)

If it's not, and the wageslaves lose their capacity to service debt, everything built on that debt starts to crumble. That's when you see the market right-size to what actually exists rather than the currently inflated prices that are created by leveraging wageslaves' debt.

The fed and government are currently doing everything humanly possible to steal as much money from the middle class to stop house of cards from falling over. The big bet is whether it will be enough.

I personally say absolutely not. Armageddon has been on the way for a while, this plague is just a sign. All bulls deserve death