/biz/ - Business & Finance

Seems like 2008 was a test run, now will be round 2, with not just foreclosed houses getting snatched up, but assets from all classes going to those who have been stacking cash these past few years.

>>27885967
I'm just wondering WHO is buying at these levels. My instinct is that its normies falling for the "GET YOUR LOW RATES NOW" commercials, and speculators buying and selling for double. On the other side I'm sure those with the M2 are just waiting for foreclosures to begin again. That would put a cash bid back under prices, and they'd still go higher...
At the same time, if we see inflation, rates go back up and price out the middle class, leaving only the current cash holders to gobble up all the assets.

Before the pandemic, real estate companies were buying foreclosed places and renting them back out to the former ownercucks. Maybe thats the way to the Great Reset, who knows.

I like to go to crowded open houses in my best suit and sunglasses and casually talk about maybe I dunno, putting in an offer 10%-20% over asking price so all the panicked normies get FOMO and accelerate the bubble popping.

I really want a house too but its very hard to convince myself to buy the all time top, of all time.
>interest rates are low
This is sold like a commercial. Do we really believe interest rates will ever fall with the Fed buying all the MBS? If you think rates will go back up you should also assume its because of a major price correction.

>>25339460
I did buy property, a condo in 2017, which I rent out to family. Its kind of a hassle to be honest. Another perk of government (at least US) jobs is that you can easily transfer anywhere in the world. I've worked in Hawaii, Germany, Marshall Islands, all on the same government GS series. In that sense it is good to rent, do 3 year terms, experience the place you live until you get tired of it, and GTFO.

Speaking of risk, I also bought land and property in Russia...

>>25159361
The way I'm thinking about it is: the rich WANT the middle class to buy the absolute top of all time because they see a crash likely coming, and then they can later swoop in and bulk buy everything at a discount.

The middle class is already going nuts buying. Outbidding each other to buy properties with debt. They are falling hard for the "Buy now cuz mortgage rates have never been this low!" meme, which is so obviously a commercial aimed at suckers.

>>24989671
I used to be on your side, thinking this shit has to come crashing down now any day. Houses are more expensive in both real and nominal terms than every before in history. Surely it's not sustainable.

But here's the blackpill. Anyone with means is fleeing fiat as fast as they can. It doesn't matter if houses are overpriced. They're one of the few assets that actually have real value and utility in this overpriced clown market everything bubble. They're the least worst investment to hold right now (except maybe bitcoin and crypto, but that still isn't on most wealthy peoples' radar), and they're significantly easier to buy and hold, and to seek rent on (via being a landlord), than similar real value stores like gold.

That means normal rules of housing market supply and demand don't really matter anymore. The supply is limited and the demand is infinite. Most of the demand doesn't even want to use or live in the property. Hell half of it doesn't even want to rent the property out. They just want to store their wealth in something that will still exist in some form a decade from now.

So yeah, it's all very retarded. And still your best bet is to buy a house, now, as soon as you can. Even if you're a crypto maxi, if you have enough for a down payment on a primary residence, it's probably smart to diversify into the only other asset category that might survive the next couple decades of weimar hyperinflation, negative bond yields and stock market implosion.

Even in cases when buying seems superior, its still hard to buy at the all time top, of all time, ever.

>>24776082
It's actually both. We're well into a new housing bubble while also enjoying an inflationary spiral at the same time. First time home buyers get to have their shit sundae and eat it too.

>>24315899
Checked and my parents literally did the same thing. Realtor jews rushed them into the sale because "winter time is bad for markets". In true boomer fashion they bought the 2008 top and sold the 2019 dip, had they waited just 3 months they could had sold at all time highs, of ALL TIME...

Consider that the "low interest / mortgage rates" could go even lower, or negative like in Denmark (they pay you 0.5% to take a home loan!).

Also consider that home prices are the most expensive they have been ever, EVER, so you would be buying the absolute top in all US history.
>Certainly its not a bubble this time.

I still can't bring myself to buy the absolute top of all time.

What do you think? Will prices continue up forever?

>>23155368
>>23155122
I also have to add that if you're buying now, you are buying the absolute top of the century. While I do favor ownership bigly, its really hard to argue why property investment is a good idea right now.

>>23019692
>>23019786
Housing is cheap in Japan because they have been in an economic contraction for decades. Another way to say that is they have been fighting off deflationary pressures. Look at people who bought condos in Tokyo in 1991 (basically where we are in the US now).

Regarding your OP
>will rates go up?
This will cause a debt crisis. Our countries interest payments on outstanding debts will be too big. Rates cannot go up unless debt goes down bigly.

>cheap money being loaned out eternally
Right now even with cheap money apparently lending growth is contracting. That means the market is saying that rates need to be even LOWER. Its possible to have negative rates, like in Denmark where you can get a mortgage with a -0.5% rate (get paid to take a loan).

>doesn't it make sense to mortgage now?
IMO rates will go lower AND house prices will go lower.

Caveats to the above is the whole financial reset, US CBDC implementation and shiiet.

>>22830024
To add to this, if you want to buy now, then you have to explain WHY you want to buy literally at the real and nominal all time top of the US housing market. On this chart everything real (blue line) before 1996 is pretty much a flat line. From 1997 you get housing price increases that became the housing bubble. Why is 2011 to now different?
>the FED would sooner write off every boomer and airbnb slumlord's mortgage balance in full
This can't happen under the current rules and would have to be changed by congress, which can't even work to agree to pass a desperately needed stimulus bill. I don't see it happening any time soon.