/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23844085
Its strange that you think the US has done anything but show INCREASING reluctance to get involved in conflict since the early 1990s. World begging for intervention in Serbia? Eh, whip some missiles and jets at it. Your barracks get bombed? Eh, sanction the homeland of the bomber and do some assassinations. Saddam is going to roll over Kuwait? Best we can do is drive them out and not pursue regime change. It took a real bloody nose in 9/11 to get the US to finally commit to a real, boots on the ground foreign occupation, and after 20 years of getting nothing in return for controlling Trashcanistan, American war fatigue is at an all time high. There will be no new middle eastern war with real American involvement, because one, there is zero popular support no matter what ARFCOM told you, two, the petrodollar system is actually on the decline alongside the USD and isn't worth expending force to maintain, and three, America is now a net energy exporter in the age of fracking.

There is nothing to gain politically by picking fights in the middle east, because there is no longer anything to gain economically. The energy is here, the only consumption led economy of any size left in the entire world is here, the best soil and agricultural output of the world is here. And anything else we can get by virtue of very graciously offering to allow trade to exist between ourselves and a foreign power. Welcome to the new age of the Monroe Doctrine.

>>23788925
You see the name of my pic rel? Go forth and google. Also consider lurking in the /TGD/ general on /pol/; lots of bullshit but some pretty good leaks that suggest hunger is coming to the world's most populous country.

>>23788830
Well, whether we get to see another failed invasion of Taiwan first or not, the CCP isn't long for the world and they all know it. Expect HK and Guan Dong and all those other southern coastal cities to due what they historically do. Act like outward facing city states with more loyalty to local thassalocracies than to Beijing.

Not that you're even old enough to post here, so you wouldn't know this, but Clinton represents the abject refusal of the Americans to deal with the new realities of a post soviet world. Bush Sr. wanted to make us have a conversation about the sort of new world we would have and we kicked him out in one term, so we never talked about how 'freedom of navigation' was a bribe we used to trade our industrial output for other states' strategic partnership. Billy was fine keeping the US Navy policing the global oceans for free and allowing the environment of risk free sea trade that a allowed a Frankenstein economy like China to even function. Without the USN, China can't make use of its one advantage, cheap as shit human life. It needs secured oversea transport for all the inputs for its factories and to reach its export markets, and it could only exist in this weird time period in which the global superpower guarded sea lanes for not only no return, but economic disadvantage.

But this system could only coast so long, China is now 10x more expensive to operate in than it used to be. Smart money was fleeing China for the last 10 years and moving to Vietnam or Mexico (who is poised to be our biggest trade partner this century) Low end manufacturing was never going back to the US, but its going to Latin America, where the US can benefit from having its low cost factories in its own sphere of influence.

>>20585206
Actually the only real take. The USA is probably the most secure nation on earth due to its ungodly military and its unique geographical situation. China literally needs us to consume their shit more than we need to buy it, because their whole economy is export driven, and there is no other consumer base like the USA. And when the jobs dry up in China, the local revolutions start.

And great plains are a massive advantage. Some of the most fertile land on earth, that gets a bug killing frost each winter, criss-crossed with navigable waterways that make transport of goods cheap, and its in the middle of a country no one can get to. Compare this to China who has a similar area of arable land, but has to feed 3x the people on it, while paving over and polluting this precious farmland as fast as they can. They also lose a few sq miles to the Gobi each year. Oh and they already had to cull herds and flocks due to disease this year. Oh and they also have a massive locust swarm destroying crops. Oh and the flooding has ruined their best farmland this year, depositing a layer of salt and metal laden silt that will poison it for a decade. Oh and China wasn't food secure before that BTW and bought up most of the AUS seafood harvest, and as much meat from the US, NZ, AUS, and Brazil as they could. Hope you like longpig.

>>20536016
>>20533971

Based and der Tage pilled

>>20511551
Anon, the one belt one road project is a colossal boondoggle. Its a giant make work project to build overland connections from China, through a bunch of -stan backwaters, into Turkey then Germany. It exists primarily as a dumping ground for all the concrete and steel that Chinese can't sell to anyone. Overland transport is 8x more expensive than shipping via boat.

There isn't going to be a cold war, because the only true global power is turning inward and will no longer uphold global shipping security. They only care about the anglosphere, Mexico, Japan, and maybe Poland going forward. China, Russia, and everyone else get to do what they used to do before Breton Woods: fight their neighbors for scraps. China imports a significant portion of their food and 85% of their energy. Almost all their oil is in tankers that must pass by nations that hate them, and they don't have the blue water navy to secure their own shipping. But the Japanese have the 2nd biggest blue water navy on earth. Combine this with their apocalyptic demographics the one-child policy, and we'll be learning no country names in 10 years.

If Russia goes gold standard, its only so they can interface with the continental European economies that can survive the loss of shipping security, such as France and Turkey. They aborted all their kids in the 90s, so they're running out of soldiers, and this era is probably the last hurrah for Russian military adventures for a while.

Its going to shit, but the US will be better off than most, along with Turkey, NZ, France, and maybe Argentina

>>20293750
>China
>Chinese political clout
>Chinese economic clout
>Russia
>Russia projecting power outside of breadcrumb borderwars

Both nations have terminal demographies, and Russia knows that they had to go on military adventures now, before they run out of military aged men in 10 years. China is staring down the barrel of the worst famine in human history to the point where they are having orchards plant rice on barren hillsides, in the wake of mass farm culls, biblical locust storms, and freak early flooding that not only wiped out their recent planting, but is depositing a layer of silt laden with salt and heavy metals, turning their best farmland into a deadzone. They also are doing this in the wake of (at minimum) knowingly letting an experimental disease spread outside of the country to make sure everyone else got fucked. They are also dealing with the first of several threads getting pulled in their make believe banking sector with the fake gold being discovered.

Stop watching TV and start paying attention to geopolitics anon.

>>20185353
>>20185561
>>20185584
>>20185642
>>20185676
>>20185860
Fucking russiaboos in this thread. You aborted all your children in the 90s which is why you now have a dearth of service age men. You are faced with the propect demographic decline with China going failed state to the west and the EU dissolving in the East (which will at least let you bring Germany into your sphere). You LARP incessantly about fighting the US when in reality you'll never actually get that war because the US is the greatest Thassalocracy the world has ever known, and there is nothing you have worth taking. The very concept of Russia and the US as big strategic enemies is retarded because both have their own regional interests going into this century with little overlap, and both would like nothing more than to see China dissolve.

>>20111489
Yeah I don't know why the fuck they think this site is working under any kind of reality
>>20111342
This is absolutely retarded 'bro trust me' shit.

You want a real forecast for the coming decade read Peter Zeihan. Shit is going to be bad, but America will be relatively okay because we don't outsource the great plains.

>>20085259
It won't be the Chinese century until the heat death of the universe.

did grayscale close their fund today?!

does grayscale and coindesk share an owner?

You're all retards that need to get into geopolitics.

The global order, where the US provided shipping security for the world for free is over, and its going to trade primarily with the Anglospere, Mexico, Japan, and Poland. This means that export lead economies (China) no longer function. China's leaders know they're entering a death spiral, and that massive famine is once again coming for them in the next 10 years. America and its neighbors will be pretty comfy as the world goes back to doing what it did before WW2: fighting over bread crumbs.

Communism, nazism, fascism, capitalism, all the ISMS of recent history have one underlying assumption in common: They're all predicated on the idea of getting more. More land, more people, more wealth, etc... We're moving into an era of less. And frankly that means a die-back of the human population, primarily in Africa and mainland Asia.

Let he who can, save himself.

>>19745579
The big point is that if the US eating shit was enough to trigger a global depression back in 1929, it most certainly is now. Remember that the USD is shit, but its still the king of the shit fiat currencies, and will be the last one standing. Debts denominated in USD will be worth more than differently denominated debts until they suddenly aren't worth anything at all.

The coming global order was going to be one with no US naval security guarantee, so sea trade is risky and expensive again unless you're the USA's preferential trading partner (Mexico, Japan, Canada and the anglosphere, Poland). This was happening anyway as factories left China for Mexico and Vietnam, but the level of divestment and capital flight from China has accelerated. China can starve or try something stupid, and starve with everyone thinking they deserved it. The EU is functionally DOA with France having the only non-terminal demography, and Poland and the UK getting in good with the US, leaving the Germans to cozy up with Russia for gas.

The US can't keep up the crazy build out rates and R&D, but it already had the 1st and 2nd biggest air force, a larger navy than the rest of earth combined, and a decades long advantage in research. It just needs to coast long enough for its old rivals to start fighting in shitty border conflicts like the good old days.

NZ is the bunker of choice, but if you're setup to be king of the new order, why even leave? Its not like private security doesn't exist, and the US is big place.

If you have the biggest economic dick, and the only money that isn't backed by faith alone, in a world where fiat just fucked 7 billion people at the same time, who is going to say no? The most anyone else could do would be to say, we don't accept your money, but who cares? Business and trusted money now goes to your neighbor state, and they get integrated into the only functional economy in town.

>>19540545
I get that you're barley 18 and think you know how things work, but just because your local system hasn't died in your lifetime doesn't mean it doesn't happen. You have this idea in your head that a currency change involves madmax gasoline raiders and nukes getting launched. In reality it happens fairly civilly outside of situations where the loss of faith in the existing currency came from heavy war sanctions. You also perceive the status quo as still existing. Everything isn't working as normal like you claim. The primary backing of the USD internationally isn't even oil anymore. Its global shipping security. And as the US moves to system where it primarily trades with a handful of continental neighbors and European partners, it doesn't have a reason to keep up that worldwide shipping guarantee. All that 'fuck china move the factory' sentiment Covid kicked up? It was already happening. Chinese labor costs have octupled in a decade, Vietnam and Mexico were already eating their lunch, and the smart money has been in a mach 9 capital flight from China for years now.

The only real reason for any of the stocks to be rallying (even JC Penny is up 6%) is that wall street perceives large conglomerates as eating up the last of the mom and pop market share. This is not business as normal, and it highlights the difference between the market and the economy. There are no other fundamentals backing this rally, and you should also remember we turned over the trading floor almost entirely to the algos back in March. If you want to try to get in now and make a quick buck, I get it, but be ready to divest from this market. Dollars will be good to hold for a while, but only until the second foreign nations stop wanting them.

>>19485952
I don't know why you're giving shit to the only one who's got a functional understanding the relationship between China's incoming demographic implosion, their colossally export driven economy in a world that soon will not have the US Navy as a global shipping security force, and the collapse of import demand from the US (the only place that can consume enough to keep them afloat). He's also aware that Han Chinese is a recent invention designed to blur distinctions between the northern Beijing aligned population (where all the CCP Dai Los come from) the southern coastals (who always distrusted their power), and their various minorities they haven't exterminated yet.

Bonus points for being aware of the coming Chinese famine that will have Malthus beating off in his coffin.

The Chinese could come out tomorrow with a 'digital gold backed RMB' and nobody outside of China (and probably nobody in HK) would touch it with a 39 and a half foot pole.

Any system China deploys for a blockchain currency will be one they developed in house and have total control over. And since the CCP can freeze and seize assets at will at this very moment, let alone in a future digital currency landscape, it will not be have any international buy in. There's a reason anyone with money in China buys farms and houses in Aus, Canada, and the US. They no better than to trust the party with their wealth.

They also just don't have the carrots and sticks that the US does to make people accept it as a reserve currency, since their military is a joke, and their navy can't even operate far enough from their shores to keep their oil imports safe from pirates/japs.

>>18689085
>>18689121 answered it pretty clearly, but you should consider that we're actually moving away from it as the primary reason for the USD to be the world's go-to reserve currency. The big reason is that the US is the big dick on campus militarily, and that we have such an oversized navy we ensure the security of all international shipping. Basically, if you don't want the US to throw you against the lockers and run your pockets, you'll do business in USD and you'll like it.

>ACTUALLY A GOOD THREAD EDITION
really miss having good threads in here, it's almost always some dudes begging or fudding or larpers.
just put some good info here
I'll start by asking you guys which wallets do you use, what exchange do you use, how do you buy your crypto, is there a good way to buy VCCs?

>>16083389
>>16083391
>>16083418
>>16083445
>>16083458
>>16083474
>>16083484
>>16083489

just post the picture next time.

is this related to the subject?

>>15816209
guidance? what? just don't read and never sell.

what we need are some fun larps. something a least a little plausible but with a touch of the fantastic. 42 was annoying but at least he wasn't boring.

>>15439735

This. At this point it's not if but WHEN the whole scheme comes crashing down. All that's can be done is set the pieces up.

>>13531249
Yeah not all the webms in my fuck the chinese folder are on par with the standards i set, consider it deleted. the best of them are where you can see people being indifferent to other people, and not being possible to explain with "it was a misstake", this one you can easily say "maybe the drivers brakes didn't work", and imagine same thing happening in the US, as the truth that he just thought it wasn't worth braking is too hard to grasp since you, probably of european origin, cant think of doing such a thing.