/biz/ - Business & Finance

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2/2

[a catalyst for market rollover includes spike in infections and deaths, along with] ... Bankruptcy, and insolvency, which are on on the rise. We're just beginning to see the first string of them happening:
>JC Penney : https://www.ketv.com/article/jcpenney-could-file-for-bankruptcy-next-week-reports-suggest/32424755#
>True Religion: https://globalnews.ca/news/6813041/coronavirus-true-religion-jeans-bankruptcy/
>J Crew: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/business/j-crew-bankruptcy/index.html
>Neiman Marcus: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/business/neiman-marcus-bankruptcy.html
>Stage Stores (Goody's, Palais Royal, Bealls, Peebles, and Gordmans): http://corporate.stage.com/press-releases

Remember that bankruptcy is a lagging indicator and happens months down the road from the trigger. Check out this google trends.

Here's an overall summary:

May June July August are HIGH DANGER months during economic downturns. Anyone holding stocks during this point in time needs to understand their own timeframe and strategy, and if you're holding out for divvies you're likely going to see big pullbacks. If you're holding out only for oil to fill up storage, predicting a pump, be ready to sell when you're up big and get out. There is no room for greed, be extremely careful. Be extremely vigilant.

However, I could be wrong completely, so watch for the SP500 to break out of this recent pattern, which would really mean "stocks only go up." If SP500 breaks through 300, then holy shit. That'd still be extremely bullish for tankers too; the on the ground oil situation, if you're inclined to believe it, is still fucked, and we'd be sailing with the wave the SP500 is riding.

My strategy: Sell in late may with oil storage news hitting. Buy back in in November when there's blood on the streets for the potential 2021 supercycle.

Be careful /tankerbros/ a storm's coming. Thanks for reading.