/biz/ - Business & Finance

Realistic price predictions.

A) If nothing notable happens to the protocol, I think the price can break the top 20 and shed one more zero.
>Prediction = .0012

B) The 1.2% burn fee... and it's problems..
It only applies to on-chain transactions. E.g. sending from one wallet to another -- more importantly, it DOESN'T apply to exchange volume, which makes up 90% of the volume. So with many anons saying it will take 2 years to reduce down to 10 billion MC with a 1.2% burn fee, if no exchanges decide to VOLUNTARILY implement the fee, it'll take closer to 20 years to have a meaningful impact. However, that's still some momentum.
>Prediction = .005

C) If the exchanges implement the burn as well. This scenario is not all roses, the problem with a 1.2% trading fee is that much of the crypto volume today on every coin comes from scalper bots. These bots operate on RAZOR THIN profit margins, and losing 1.2% on a trade likely will move them into the negative. This will cause the volume to realistically lose 50-75% of the volume. So instead of 2 years to reach 10b it will be closer to 6-8 years. You also run the risk that the momentum and meme magic dies off with the lower volume.
>Prediction = .05

You can multiply these predictions by 5 if CZ decides to burn some or all of those coins in his wallets, but I'd say this has a probability of under 5%.

You can multiply these predictions by 2 if these scenarios play out in an upcoming bull market (not factored in)

>>>Blended prediction based on all variables and probabilities = .015125