/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53941740
In terms of price, it is determined by the laws of supply and demand. For its supply, Monero will have low inflation along with Bitcoin. With the next BTC halvening in ~April 2024, Bitcoin's yearly inflation will drop to 0.65% and Monero will have 0.86%. Nothing too important, but this allows Monero to gain on Bitcoin without much resistance due to inflation.

Now on the demand side of things, I expect the trend of more and more markets shifting towards Monero to continue, especially on the darknets. With Alphabay gone and Dread reorganizing we'll see a new wave of markets (we already do, they just lack the trust), most with higher OPSEC in mind, this will translate to near complete Monero dominance. Maxis currently cope by saying that you can still use Bitcoin, but that won't be the case for long.

This alone could trigger a 2x price increase for your timeframe imo. Currently Monero still doesn't have 90-100% real volume dominance, but a complete transition would not only mean that the demand for Monero grows, but also that Monero's demand would be tied to DNM growth. picrel attached about that. Thought the values are probably off due to Monero getting used, in total DNMs could have $2bn of volume a year with that number being around only $800m in 2018, that is a ~58% increase by year.

Now ignoring DNMs, Monero has gained in usage across every site that lists it. CoinCards being a famous example of that. From an investor's perspective, given how Monero increased 14x bottom to top last cycle, with a cup and handle formation right now, I don't think it's hard to imagine $1400 for 1 XMR, but that is assuming same conditions as last bullrun, so other 4 digit values could happen with Monero gaining more adoption than usual, like with DNMs, so even $2400 could happen by 2025.