/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55380372

I don't think he's wrong about the thesis, I just think he's too early because he got caught in his own hype about glowing rocks and PMs going up any day now.

I've been watching his videos every now and then and the bias in the daily videos is strong as it ever was.
Everything always looks good and about to go up even when it's trending down and increasingly losing the upwards momentum in every run.
I think he had the right idea about the time frame of the market last year when he talked about us being couple of years earlier in the cycle than we might think, but he apparently discarded that idea and is now of the mind that the commodity upswing is on right at the moment.
He should just take a breather and push back his time frame on this and say "ok guys, we're most likely going to get fucked towards the end of this year, maybe even halfway through the next"
There's no reason why the decade long commodity cycle has to be one line up, everything ran so hot that this market is probably going to slowly correct this and maybe even the next year.

I've posted this few times and I still hold onto it, the CRB index will slowly correct to the 0.618 level and the fractal from previous run supports it too.
If we're later in the cycle we should be done correcting and climbing up from this level, but if we're couple of years earlier then we'll get this type of a correction and that's what I think is the case.
And we should all hope that is the case because it gives us a last chance to load up on piss cheap companies and it will also weed out the shittier juniors who can't stay in business during that correction.