/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>25316735
>Burgers dont bother.
I'll just sell to you at a 3% discount. Then you can cash it out wherever.

>>25201437
One River Asset Management had the same thought, except also noted "higher risk" for ETH, and so they bought 80% BTC 20% ETH.

The thing is, they almost certainly (1) did a real economic analysis, and (2) quantified both their expected gains and the expected odds for each one to succeed, and then (3) applied the usual outcome formulas, such as the Kelly Criterion, to decide how much to allocate to each.

That means that their best estimate on ETH succeeding is at best 25%, and realistically has to be much lower -- the "25% odds of success" would only be true if the two had equal profit potential, and they explicitly said that the two didn't, that IF it succeeds then ETH will win them even more. So that means their real take on ETH's risk is maybe a one-in-five to much, much worse odds of success.

But what do I know, I just took some stats classes in college, hung out with some insurance actuaries, and did some professional gambling.

So, you could end up being right, or you could end up rekt. Looks like the odds are at least 80% against you.