/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>13843382
I don't see any reason for Trump to fold any time soon

China has more short-term pressure

We might see a downward drift over the next couple months, but I don't see a landslide occurring. It'll be a bumpy time

right now my eyes are on commodity prices first and foremost, even over USDCNY or indices.
Indices show no serious upward or downward momentum, they're hovering and waiting on news. USDCNY isn't showing hard momentum either, it's bound still.
Commodity prices are moving.

I think the Fed won't rock the boat.

! I think China recognizes that serious economic retaliation against the US is unfeasible, either they don't have the leverage or the action is something they don't want to do.
If you pay CLOSE attention to the Chinese response after the most recent tariff raise (and the Huawei thing), it was more on the side of blustering, less on the side of action. They took back their Pandas, they made a bunch of threats and murmurs about doing things but haven't done anything yet.
The point of this is that the Chinese government needs to show their citizens that it is battling valiantly with a powerful foe, while at the same time not escalating things too much (in my eyes)
Basically China has only a few more cards to play until the China<->US trade is completely shut down.
While that would be chaos for the markets, in terms of the overall economy it would do more lasting harm to China than the US. Withing 1-4 years any plastic thing you can imagine will just be made in some other poor Asian country.

>>13727995
did you open any of the links I posted

>Under a process outlined by U.S. officials, the new tariffs would not take effect until late June at the earliest. But that could come just as Trump meets with Xi on the sidelines of a Group of 20 leaders meeting June 28-29 in Osaka, Japan, raising the stakes in an already escalating trade war.

>
>The indications that negotiations are paused will focus attention on the next opportunity for Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to meet -- at the Group of 20 meeting in Japan next month.
>"If the U.S. doesn’t make concessions in key issues, there is little point for China to resume talks," said Zhou Xiaoming, a former commerce ministry official and diplomat. "China’s stance has become more hard-line and it’s in no rush for a deal" because the U.S. approach is extremely repellent and China has no illusions about U.S. sincerity, he said.

There was a sideline US-China trade meeting between Trump and Xi at the last G-20 meeting.

basically, no official meetings until the sideline meeting at G-20. (unless one side suddenly and unexpectedly caves)
For now, both sides know what the other wants. And the other poster was asking about what scheduled meetings are upcoming.

tard