/biz/ - Business & Finance

Daily reminder that there is a LOT more trouble brewing under the surface
Daily reminder that all the banks balance sheets are all completely fucked
>banks seeing massive deposit outflows due to higher interest rates
>banks seeing balance sheets collapse, as commercial real estate is now worth 50% pre-covid due to work from home [banks positioned themselves / risk management with the belief that 'commercial real estate can never go down in value!!']
>due to banking crisis, extreme tightening of credit conditions; failure to roll previous loans and failure to issue new loans = money supply contraction
So, why would the Fed "skip" but not "pause"??
Because the banks are that fucked, and the Fed hopes that by pausing, and giving them more time to fix their balance sheets, they can get their shit together and prevent total systemic failure
>pro-tip: they can't fix their balance sheets
"Anon, what are you talking about, the banking system is strong and resilient!"
L o l. Yeah, that's why the bank usage of the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program has gone up, not down as time has passed. Everything is fine.
>pic related
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW
Daily reminder: the banks learned absolutely nothing from 2008 re: risk management
Daily reminder: we will see spectacular banking collapse by the end of the year, as we see defaults, delinquencies, and interest rates continue to rise
Daily reminder: You've been warned
The deposit outflows have not stopped. Commercial real estate will not recover. Credit tightening will increase. Wake up. Take the wool off your eyes.
>still, when it happens, /smg/ will be surprised

Daily reminder that there is a LOT more trouble brewing under the surface
Daily reminder that all the banks balance sheets are all completely fucked
>banks seeing massive deposit outflows due to higher interest rates
>banks seeing balance sheets collapse, as commercial real estate is now worth 50% pre-covid due to work from home [banks positioned themselves / risk management with the belief that 'commercial real estate can never go down in value!!']
>due to banking crisis, extreme tightening of credit conditions; failure to roll previous loans and failure to issue new loans = money supply contraction
So, why would the Fed "skip" but not "pause"??
Because the banks are that fucked, and the Fed hopes that by pausing, and giving them more time to fix their balance sheets, they can get their shit together and prevent total systemic failure
>pro-tip: they can't fix their balance sheets
"Anon, what are you talking about, the banking system is strong and resilient!"
L o l. Yeah, that's why the bank usage of the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program has gone up, not down as time has passed. Everything is fine.
>pic related
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW
Daily reminder: the banks learned absolutely nothing from 2008 re: risk management
Daily reminder: we will see spectacular banking collapse by the end of the year, as we see defaults, delinquencies, and interest rates continue to rise
Daily reminder: You've been warned
The deposit outflows have not stopped. Commercial real estate will not recover. Credit tightening will increase. Wake up. Take the wool off your eyes.
>still, when it happens, /smg/ will be surprised

Daily reminder that there is a LOT more trouble brewing under the surface
Daily reminder that all the banks balance sheets are all completely fucked
>banks seeing massive deposit outflows due to higher interest rates
>banks seeing balance sheets collapse, as commercial real estate is now worth 50% pre-covid due to work from home [banks positioned themselves / risk management with the belief that 'commercial real estate can never go down in value!!']
>due to banking crisis, extreme tightening of credit conditions; failure to roll previous loans and failure to issue new loans = money supply contraction
So, why would the Fed "skip" but not "pause"??
Because the banks are that fucked, and the Fed hopes that by pausing, and giving them more time to fix their balance sheets, they can get their shit together and prevent total systemic failure
>pro-tip: they can't fix their balance sheets
"Anon, what are you talking about, the banking system is strong and resilient!"
L o l. Yeah, that's why the bank usage of the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program has gone up, not down as time has passed. Everything is fine.
>pic related
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW
Daily reminder: the banks learned absolutely nothing from 2008 re: risk management
Daily reminder: we will see spectacular banking collapse by the end of the year, as we see defaults, delinquencies, and interest rates continue to rise
Daily reminder: You've been warned
The deposit outflows have not stopped. Commercial real estate will not recover. Credit tightening will increase. Wake up. Take the wool off your eyes.
>still, when it happens, /smg/ will be surprised

Daily reminder that there is a LOT more trouble brewing under the surface
Daily reminder that all the banks balance sheets are all completely fucked
>banks seeing massive deposit outflows due to higher interest rates
>banks seeing balance sheets collapse, as commercial real estate is now worth 50% pre-covid due to work from home [banks positioned themselves / risk management with the belief that 'commercial real estate can never go down in value!!']
>due to banking crisis, extreme tightening of credit conditions; failure to roll previous loans and failure to issue new loans = money supply contraction
So, why would the Fed "skip" but not "pause"??
Because the banks are that fucked, and the Fed hopes that by pausing, and giving them more time to fix their balance sheets, they can get their shit together and prevent total systemic failure
>pro-tip: they can't fix their balance sheets
"Anon, what are you talking about, the banking system is strong and resilient!"
L o l. Yeah, that's why the bank usage of the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program has gone up, not down as time has passed. Everything is fine.
>pic related
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW
Daily reminder: the banks learned absolutely nothing from 2008 re: risk management
Daily reminder: we will see spectacular banking collapse by the end of the year, as we see defaults, delinquencies, and interest rates continue to rise
Daily reminder: You've been warned
The deposit outflows have not stopped. Commercial real estate will not recover. Credit tightening will increase. Wake up. Take the wool off your eyes.
>still, when it happens, /smg/ will be surprised