/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>1474731
Just to argue counterpoints

>Tech 2.0
We're already seeing smaller startups batten down their hatches, focusing on profitability and burn rate. VCs still haven't forgotten 2000. Uber's cash loss is due to investing in self-driving (lowering cost) tech and monopolizing growth a la Amazon. People aren't going to stop using it overnight like Pets.com.

>CRE
In 2008, prices crashed so badly because everyone wanted to exit before their neighbor sold. Corrupt Chinese and Russian oligarchs might earning less money to pile in, but they have nowhere else to park dirty money and are completely ignorant of their neighbors.

>Warehousing
Could be a bubble, true. Will people revert en masse from ordering Amazon shit to shopping at their local Mom & Pop Walmart? Personal spending will decline as median age rises and retiring boomers downsize, but will that prompt a bubble pop rather than normal stagnant/declining revenues?

>Government bonds
Not everyone is a prepper. Only drug dealers use bitcoin. Everyone needs government currency to pay taxes. The Fed/BOJ/ECB/BOE are all on the same page, writing off no tool when they need it. What makes you think they won't ferociously guard their government's debt/pension assets? It's almost the inverse of 2008, because now we know the AAA bonds are backed by threat of QE & the printing press.

>Healthcare
People are also older and sicker than they've ever been, so naturally healthcare debt & GDP will be massive. On the supply side, the government is hamstrung by voters, so they won't be abolishing Medicare any time soon. Again, that's a gradual flattening of revenue (even as the Fed prints money to pay Medicare bills, screwing everyone else via inflation).

What kind of bubblicious, negative-feedback loops am I missing?