/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56359372
>oil goes up
>energy bills rise for everybody
>transportation fees rise for all goods
>businesses start making more losses
>this includes farmers
>also if natgas went up to keep up with oil prices going up you'll have a double whammo as ammonia, a common fertilizer, is made with natgas as feedstock
>food prices rise due to increased input, energy and transport costs
>most other core goods also go up due to businesses offloading the costs to their customers
>all your expenditures rise and your stocks go down due to reduced earnings
Beautiful, isn't it?

>Jim Cramer argues the bears are wrong: The economy and market are actually strong

>>56340548
Correction: the Fed offered TLT put chads another buying opportunity.

Next few days are key for gold. Fingers crossed, if it breaks down it may retest $1,750 or $1,650

>unsustainable debt levels, auto, student, credit, personal, mortgage
>extreme housing bubble, all time high 30%+ income on housing
>consumer is broke, no savings by October
>inflation is spiking higher, no more base effects
>interest rates higher for longer; more zombie company failures, lower growth, more bank failures if 10yr approaches 4.5%
>complete collapse in global trade, each month countries report doing 10% less exports from the previous month
>China recession
>EU recession
>dollar rising
>earnings collapse for 3 consecutive quarters
>1.73 standard deviations wilshire 5k ratio; 50% more bubble than dotcom peak
>**20x forward multiple** on S&P500 earnings (this is very expensive, going into a recession)
>earnings margin collapse, profit margin collapse market wide three consecutive quarters
>only in nominal terms are things "rosy"
>spiking delinquencies / defaults on all forms of credit
>new housing construction falling during strong summer months, in spite of strong demand
>more corporate bankruptcies this year than any other previous by this time of year
>yield curve inversion + uninversion in future
>130% debt to GDP
>$1 trillion in debt service
>other nations dropping dollars for trade, petrodollar is kill
>PMI / ISM collapse
>new orders / backlog of orders collapse
>commodity prices rising sharply (inflationary)
>consumer is kill, and will be even more kill in the Autumn
>crowding out effect from Janet Yellen issuance backlog
>Japan ending / lifting YCC, carry trade unwind
>ECB more dovish = dollar rise
>yields rising
>all time high paycheck to paycheck before student loan repayment resumes
>underwater autoloans
>collapsing commercial real estate value 60%+ value haircuts
>deposit outflows, commercial real estate collapse, inverted yield curve crushing banks - solvency banking crisis looms
>EU PMI collapse
>Fed liquidity vs S&P500 divergence
>US credit downgrade
>smart money vs dumb money divergence
>US regional bank downgrades