/biz/ - Business & Finance

A simple, common sense explanation, without the use of symbols, and without any arrogant attitude:

Let's start first with the fact that there are 6 balls in total. 3 of those balls are gold. So what is the probability of your first ball you pick being gold? 3/6, or 50%.

Now, we know the first ball we ended up picking was gold, but also ask yourself: How does picking a gold ball change what I have to now consider?

There were originally 3 gold balls, but you've now picked one, and so 3-1 = 2 gold balls remaining. There has also been a change to the total number of balls remaining. You've removed one ball from the total, and so 6-1=5.

So you might think that the probability of then picking a second gold ball is 2/5, 40%. But the actual answer is 2/3, why is that?

It's because we know an entire box contains only silver balls, and in this box there are 2 silver balls. It would be incorrect to include this box in our consideration because it has no way of contributing to the probability of picking a second gold ball.

So we remove 2 silver balls from the running total we're looking at: 5-2 = 3.

Therefore, the probability of picking a second gold ball is now 2/3.

>>7361551
/pol/ and /b/ have ruined this board, sir. I would just like to discuss my bizness among reasonable, non-trap/loli posting individuals. Please do something to rectify this issue.

I love Asian women.

I actually look like this.

pic related.

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- Voltaire